AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#96Away
Stanford
0-0 · AVR 41.0
17p
#28Home
Louisville
0-0 · AVR 63.9
37p
STAN 9%91% LOU
Spread
LOU -19.9
Total
54
Moneyline
STAN+1030LOU-1030
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← STAN advantageevenLOU advantage →
STAN throw
STAN protection #61
LOU +68
STAN run
LOU +32
LOU throw
LOU WR #19
LOU +24
LOU run
STAN front #97STAN linebackers #25
LOU +13

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when LOU throws
Tre Richardson
vs
Jay Green
X · LOU
CB1 · STAN
92.9
70.7
LOU +22
when LOU runs
Isaac Brown
vs
Matt Rose
RB · LOU
MLB · STAN
73.6
78.1
STAN +4
off the edge· hunting Mirer
Nathan Mejia
vs
Clev Lubin
LT · STAN
EDGE · LOU
52.8
93.1
LOU +40
when STAN throws
Caden High
vs
Antonio Watts
X · STAN
CB1 · LOU
52.4
91.0
LOU +39
off the edge· hunting Kienholz
Evan Wibberley
vs
Joe Asiain
LT · LOU
EDGE · STAN
68.8
65.5
LOU +3
when STAN runs
Micah Ford
vs
Jacob Smith
RB · STAN
MLB · LOU
64.3
67.9
LOU +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Stanford
LBMatt Rose
78.178/878
LBTevarua Tafiti
74.3111/878
SJay Green
70.7219/1427
CBBrandon Nicholson
70.6224/1427
RBMicah Ford
64.380/514
SJaylen'Dai Sumlin
55.5604/1427

also out — N. Prongos (OG)

Louisville
WRTre Richardson
92.92/777
DBAntonio Watts
91.09/1427
DBTayon Holloway
81.082/1427
DBKoen Entringer
75.0153/1427
RBIsaac Brownout
73.642/514
LBJacob Smith
67.9178/878

also out — K. Hughes (WR), M. Quisenberry (WR)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Stanford
opponent
Louisville
away-14.2
Wake Forest#46
+8.2home
home-20.9
SMU#18
-3.5home
home-12.8
Georgia Tech#38
-0.4away
home-13.2
NC State#34
-0.8away

Projected margin

80% between 3 and 37
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLOU +19.995% interval: -4 to 43.880% interval: 2.5 to 37.3+3+37STAN wins 9%LOU wins 91%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LOU 39–18 STANLOU 35–42 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLOU 39–39 STAN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLOU 42–35 STAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLOU 46–32 STAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLOU 49–28 STAN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLOU 53–25 STAN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLOU 56–21 STAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLOU 60–18 STAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLOU 63–14 STAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLOU 32–39 STAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 35–35 STAN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLOU 39–32 STAN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLOU 42–28 STAN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLOU 46–25 STAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLOU 49–21 STAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLOU 53–18 STAN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLOU 56–14 STAN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLOU 60–11 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLOU 28–35 STAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLOU 32–32 STAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLOU 35–28 STAN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLOU 39–25 STAN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLOU 42–21 STAN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLOU 46–18 STAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLOU 49–14 STAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLOU 53–11 STAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLOU 56–7 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLOU 25–32 STAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLOU 28–28 STAN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLOU 32–25 STAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLOU 35–21 STAN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLOU 39–18 STAN neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesLOU 42–14 STAN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLOU 46–11 STAN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLOU 49–7 STAN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLOU 53–4 STAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 21–28 STAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLOU 25–25 STAN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLOU 28–21 STAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLOU 32–18 STAN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLOU 35–14 STAN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLOU 39–11 STAN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLOU 42–7 STAN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLOU 46–4 STAN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLOU 49–0 STAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 18–25 STAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 21–21 STAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLOU 25–18 STAN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLOU 28–14 STAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLOU 32–11 STAN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLOU 35–7 STAN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLOU 39–4 STAN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLOU 42–0 STAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)LOU 14–21 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLOU 18–18 STAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLOU 21–14 STAN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLOU 25–11 STAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLOU 28–7 STAN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLOU 32–4 STAN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLOU 35–0 STAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalSTAN +7LOU +7LOU +21LOU +35LOU +49margin →