AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Fri Oct 9 · 11:00 PM
#30Away
Florida State
0-0 · AVR 62.6
29p
#28Home
Louisville
0-0 · AVR 63.9
29p
FSU 51%49% LOU
Spread
FSU -0.1
Total
58
Moneyline
FSU-106LOU+106
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FSU advantageevenLOU advantage →
FSU throw
FSU WR #3FSU protection #74
LOU +25
FSU run
LOU +21
LOU throw
LOU WR #19
even
LOU run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when FSU throws
Duce Robinson
vs
Antonio Watts
X · FSU
CB1 · LOU
87.7
91.0
LOU +3
when LOU throws
Tre Richardson
vs
Nehemiah Chandler
X · LOU
CB1 · FSU
92.9
73.6
LOU +19
off the edge· hunting Sperry
Xavier Chaplin
vs
Clev Lubin
LT · FSU
EDGE · LOU
68.0
93.1
LOU +25
when LOU runs
Isaac Brown
vs
Blake Nichelson
RB · LOU
MLB · FSU
73.6
79.5
FSU +6
when FSU runs
Quintrevion Wisner
vs
Jacob Smith
RB · FSU
MLB · LOU
68.8
67.9
dead even
off the edge· hunting Kienholz
Evan Wibberley
vs
Rylan Kennedy
LT · LOU
EDGE · FSU
68.8
67.8
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida State
WRDuce Robinson
87.74/777
WRMicahi Danzy
86.98/777
LBBlake Nichelson
79.560/878
LBChris Jones
73.9113/878
DBNehemiah Chandler
73.6168/1427
DBAshlynd Barker
71.8195/1427

also out — Daniel Lyons, Malachi Marshall (QB), DB Transfer, Karson Hobbs, Devin Carter (WR), FSU freshman wide receiver (WR), Mike Norvell (WR), Dexter Carter Speaks +1 more

Louisville
WRTre Richardson
92.92/777
DBAntonio Watts
91.09/1427
DBTayon Holloway
81.082/1427
DBKoen Entringer
75.0153/1427
RBIsaac Brownout
73.642/514
LBJacob Smith
67.9178/878

also out — K. Hughes (WR), M. Quisenberry (WR)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Florida State
opponent
Louisville
home+6.8
NC State#34
-0.8away
away+1.7
Pittsburgh#33
+4.1home
home-2.5
SMU#18
-3.5home

Projected margin

80% between -18 and 17
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFSU +0.195% interval: -24 to 23.880% interval: -17.5 to 17.3-17+17FSU wins 51%LOU wins 49%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LOU 28–28 FSULOU 25–53 FSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLOU 28–49 FSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLOU 32–46 FSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLOU 35–42 FSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLOU 39–39 FSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLOU 42–35 FSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLOU 46–32 FSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLOU 49–28 FSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLOU 53–25 FSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLOU 21–49 FSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 25–46 FSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLOU 28–42 FSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLOU 32–39 FSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLOU 35–35 FSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLOU 39–32 FSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLOU 42–28 FSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLOU 46–25 FSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLOU 49–21 FSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 18–46 FSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 21–42 FSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLOU 25–39 FSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLOU 28–35 FSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLOU 32–32 FSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLOU 35–28 FSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLOU 39–25 FSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLOU 42–21 FSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLOU 46–18 FSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 14–42 FSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 18–39 FSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLOU 21–35 FSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLOU 25–32 FSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLOU 28–28 FSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesLOU 32–25 FSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLOU 35–21 FSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLOU 39–18 FSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLOU 42–14 FSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 11–39 FSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 14–35 FSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLOU 18–32 FSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLOU 21–28 FSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesLOU 25–25 FSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLOU 28–21 FSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesLOU 32–18 FSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLOU 35–14 FSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLOU 39–11 FSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 7–35 FSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLOU 11–32 FSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLOU 14–28 FSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLOU 18–25 FSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLOU 21–21 FSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLOU 25–18 FSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLOU 28–14 FSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLOU 32–11 FSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLOU 35–7 FSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLOU 4–32 FSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLOU 7–28 FSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLOU 11–25 FSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLOU 14–21 FSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLOU 18–18 FSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLOU 21–14 FSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLOU 25–11 FSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLOU 28–7 FSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLOU 32–4 FSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalFSU +28FSU +14PKLOU +14LOU +28margin →