Passing
FSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- FSU offense
- #72
- LOU defense
- #116
EPA comparison
0.22
#72
0.33
#116
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 6 · Fri Oct 9 · 7:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
FSU 51.2%48.8% LOU
- Projected margin
- FSU by 0.2
- Projected total
- 57
- 80% outcome range
- FSU 21 to LOU 21
- Win probability
- FSU 51.2%
FinalFSU 20 · LOU 44model had -0.2, off by 24.2
Current team profiles
Florida State
LouisvilleWhen Florida State has the ball
Rushing
FSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- FSU offense
- #8
- LOU defense
- #47
EPA comparison
0.28
#8
0.00
#47
Rush EPA
Drive success
FSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- FSU offense
- #57
- LOU defense
- #74
Success rates
45%
#57
41%
#74
Success rate
More metrics
0.22
#40
0.12
#93
EPA / play
1.38
#11
1.25
#86
Explosiveness
15%
#74
14%
#104
Havoc
When Louisville has the ball
Passing
LOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- FSU defense
- #84
- LOU offense
- #15
EPA comparison
0.19
#84
0.45
#15
Pass EPA
Rushing
LOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- FSU defense
- #112
- LOU offense
- #17
EPA comparison
0.15
#112
0.25
#17
Rush EPA
Drive success
LOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- FSU defense
- #88
- LOU offense
- #18
Success rates
42%
#88
50%
#18
Success rate
More metrics
0.16
#110
0.34
#6
EPA / play
1.31
#106
1.39
#9
Explosiveness
16%
#68
15%
#84
Havoc
Current key players
Florida StateQBAshton Daniels
1111 yds · 6 TD · 6 INT
77.794/729
RBOusmane Kromah
477 yds · 5 TD · 5.9 YPC
87.322/1044
LBBlake Nichelson
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 74.1
- Coverage
- 64.7
- Pressures
- 0
- Pass-rush snaps
- 5
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
75.3175/1796
DBAntonio Cromartie Jr.
4 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 62.7
- Coverage
- 74.9
- Targets allowed
- 1
- Rec allowed
- 0
- Yards allowed
- 0
- Passer rating allowed
- 39.6
- Missed tackles
- 0
74.0234/2969
LBKaron Maycock
4 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 77.4
- Coverage
- 64.8
- Pressures
- 2
- Pass-rush snaps
- 10
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 0
71.4312/1796
WRJayvan Boggs
13 rec · 257 yds · 1 TD
71.1225/2069
Availability reports · 4
- Samuel Singleton Jr. · RBout · 2026-09-21
Singleton is managing a lower body injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Tae'Shaun Gelsey · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Gelsey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Hurricanes on Saturday, October 17th.
- Devin Carter · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Carter is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Hurricanes on Saturday, October 17th.
- Gavin Markey · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Markey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Hurricanes on Saturday, October 17th.
LouisvilleQBLincoln Kienholz
1394 yds · 9 TD · 1 INT
83.951/729
LBTrent Carter
7 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 84.2
- Coverage
- 72.8
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
90.013/1796
RBBraxton Jennings
31 yds · 1 TD · 7.8 YPC
86.326/1044
WRTre Richardson
28 rec · 445 yds · 2 TD
80.258/2069
LBJacob Smith
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 78.0
- Coverage
- 60.0
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
78.1117/1796
DBBrycen Scott
13 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 79.5
- Coverage
- 72.1
- Targets allowed
- 13
- Rec allowed
- 7
- Yards allowed
- 92
- Passer rating allowed
- 76.4
- Missed tackles
- 0
74.6204/2969
Availability reports · 8
- Antonio Watts · CBout · 2026-09-25
Watts has been out of commission due to a knee injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.
- Kris Hughes · WRout · 2026-08-11
Huges has been out of commission due to lower body injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.
- Keyjuan Brown · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Brown is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Hamilton Atkins · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Atkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Elizjah Lewis · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Lewis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Anwar O'Neal · OGQues. · 2026-10-10
O'Neal is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Montavin Quisenberry · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Quisenberry is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Payton Cook · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Cook is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
FSUFlorida State
LOULouisville
vs
Offense
77.7
#71 of 138
QB
Quarterback
83.9
#45 of 138
82.2
#22 of 138
RB
Running backs
82.9
#21 of 138
68.3
#102 of 138
WR
Receivers
74.4
#38 of 138
61.0
#112 of 138
TE
Tight ends
71.7
#52 of 138
66.4
#85 of 138
OL
Offensive line
63.9
#104 of 138
Defense
67.7
#127 of 138
DL
Defensive line
83.8
#4 of 138
72.0
#87 of 138
LB
Linebackers
79.3
#24 of 138
68.8
#114 of 138
DB
Secondary
70.7
#87 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Florida State
opponent
Louisville
Hhome+13.6
NCSUNC State#63-3.0Aaway
Hhome-3.0
SMUSMU#39+10.0Hhome
Aaway+2.9
PITTPittsburgh#30+1.5Hhome