AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#46Away
Wake Forest
0-0 · AVR 56.4
23p
#28Home
Louisville
0-0 · AVR 63.9
32p
WAKE 29%71% LOU
Spread
LOU -8.2
Total
55
Moneyline
WAKE+248LOU-248
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WAKE advantageevenLOU advantage →
WAKE throw
LOU +39
WAKE run
LOU +37
LOU throw
LOU WR #19
WAKE +20
LOU run
WAKE +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when LOU throws
Tre Richardson
vs
Davaughn Patterson
X · LOU
CB1 · WAKE
92.9
84.7
LOU +8
off the edge· hunting Kienholz
Evan Wibberley
vs
Langston Hardy
LT · LOU
EDGE · WAKE
68.8
96.3
WAKE +27
when LOU runs
Isaac Brown
vs
Aiden Hall
RB · LOU
MLB · WAKE
73.6
84.0
WAKE +10
when WAKE throws
Carlos Hernandez
vs
Antonio Watts
X · WAKE
CB1 · LOU
56.6
91.0
LOU +34
over the middle
Brody Foley
vs
Freddie Gillens
TE · LOU
FS · WAKE
61.4
66.4
WAKE +5
when WAKE runs
Ty Clark III
vs
Jacob Smith
RB · WAKE
MLB · LOU
59.7
67.9
LOU +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Wake Forest
DBDavaughn Patterson
84.746/1427
LBAiden Hall
84.028/878
DBDeuce Blades II
73.7167/1427
DBKoredell Bartley
69.7245/1427
LBFrank Cusano
69.3157/878
RBTy Clark III
59.7116/514
Louisville
WRTre Richardson
92.92/777
DBAntonio Watts
91.09/1427
DBTayon Holloway
81.082/1427
DBKoen Entringer
75.0153/1427
RBIsaac Brownout
73.642/514
LBJacob Smith
67.9178/878

also out — K. Hughes (WR), M. Quisenberry (WR)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Wake Forest
opponent
Louisville
away-14.2
SMU#18
-3.5home
away-6.5
NC State#34
-0.8away
home+14.2
Stanford#96
+19.9home
away-6.1
Georgia Tech#38
-0.4away

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLOU +8.295% interval: -15.8 to 32.180% interval: -9.2 to 25.5-9+26WAKE wins 29%LOU wins 71%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LOU 32–25 WAKELOU 28–49 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLOU 32–46 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLOU 35–42 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLOU 39–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLOU 42–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLOU 46–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLOU 49–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLOU 53–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLOU 56–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLOU 25–46 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLOU 28–42 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLOU 32–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLOU 35–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLOU 39–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLOU 42–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLOU 46–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLOU 49–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLOU 53–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 21–42 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLOU 25–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLOU 28–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLOU 32–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLOU 35–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLOU 39–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLOU 42–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLOU 46–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLOU 49–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLOU 18–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 21–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLOU 25–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLOU 28–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLOU 32–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesLOU 35–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLOU 39–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLOU 42–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLOU 46–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLOU 14–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLOU 18–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLOU 21–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLOU 25–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesLOU 28–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLOU 32–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLOU 35–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLOU 39–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLOU 42–7 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLOU 11–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLOU 14–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLOU 18–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLOU 21–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLOU 25–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLOU 28–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLOU 32–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLOU 35–7 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLOU 39–4 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 7–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLOU 11–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLOU 14–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLOU 18–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLOU 21–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLOU 25–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLOU 28–7 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLOU 32–4 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLOU 35–0 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalWAKE +21WAKE +7LOU +7LOU +21LOU +35margin →