Passing
LOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- LOU offense
- #15
- UNC defense
- #32
EPA comparison
0.45
#15
0.03
#32
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
LOU 61.4%38.6% UNC
- Projected margin
- LOU by 4.5
- Projected total
- 55
- 80% outcome range
- LOU 23 to UNC 14
- Win probability
- LOU 61.4%
Current team profiles
Louisville
North CarolinaWhen Louisville has the ball
Rushing
LOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- LOU offense
- #17
- UNC defense
- #88
EPA comparison
0.25
#17
0.08
#88
Rush EPA
Drive success
LOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- LOU offense
- #18
- UNC defense
- #100
Success rates
50%
#18
43%
#100
Success rate
More metrics
0.34
#6
0.01
#47
EPA / play
1.39
#9
0.99
#4
Explosiveness
15%
#84
13%
#119
Havoc
When North Carolina has the ball
Passing
UNC offense
Higher-ranked profile
- LOU defense
- #116
- UNC offense
- #78
EPA comparison
0.33
#116
0.19
#78
Pass EPA
Rushing
LOU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- LOU defense
- #47
- UNC offense
- #93
EPA comparison
0.00
#47
0.04
#93
Rush EPA
Drive success
UNC offense
Higher-ranked profile
- LOU defense
- #74
- UNC offense
- #64
Success rates
41%
#74
44%
#64
Success rate
More metrics
0.12
#93
0.10
#91
EPA / play
1.25
#86
1.13
#117
Explosiveness
14%
#104
16%
#104
Havoc
Current key players
LouisvilleQBLincoln Kienholz
1394 yds · 9 TD · 1 INT
83.951/729
LBTrent Carter
7 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 84.2
- Coverage
- 72.8
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
90.013/1796
RBBraxton Jennings
31 yds · 1 TD · 7.8 YPC
86.326/1044
WRTre Richardson
28 rec · 445 yds · 2 TD
80.258/2069
LBJacob Smith
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 78.0
- Coverage
- 60.0
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
78.1117/1796
DBBrycen Scott
13 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 79.5
- Coverage
- 72.1
- Targets allowed
- 13
- Rec allowed
- 7
- Yards allowed
- 92
- Passer rating allowed
- 76.4
- Missed tackles
- 0
74.6204/2969
Availability reports · 8
- Antonio Watts · CBout · 2026-09-25
Watts has been out of commission due to a knee injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.
- Kris Hughes · WRout · 2026-08-11
Huges has been out of commission due to lower body injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.
- Keyjuan Brown · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Brown is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Hamilton Atkins · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Atkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Elizjah Lewis · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Lewis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Anwar O'Neal · OGQues. · 2026-10-10
O'Neal is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Montavin Quisenberry · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Quisenberry is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Payton Cook · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Cook is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
North CarolinaQBMiles O'Neill
22 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
71.8141/729
DBGreg Smith
21 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 68.1
- Coverage
- 89.6
- Targets allowed
- 5
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 9
- Passer rating allowed
- 0.0
- Missed tackles
- 3
86.619/2969
DBJalon Thompson
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 64.7
- Coverage
- 79.9
- Targets allowed
- 2
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 3
- Passer rating allowed
- 56.3
- Missed tackles
- 0
80.259/2969
WRZamaurious Robertson
1 rec · 4 yds · 0 TD
78.270/2069
DBAde Willie
1 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 60.0
- Coverage
- 78.6
- Targets allowed
- 2
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 6
- Passer rating allowed
- 56.3
- Missed tackles
- 0
78.095/2969
WRJordan Shipp
20 rec · 273 yds · 0 TD
77.877/2069
Availability reports · 5
- Jaxxon Warren · TEout · 2026-08-21
Warren is managing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Jordan Washington · TEout · 2026-10-10
Washington is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Jaylen Harvey · DLQues. · 2026-10-10
Harvey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remain to seen if he will face Duke on Saturday, October 17th.
- Carnell Warren · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Carnell is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Duke on Saturday, October 17th.
- Keeyun Chapman · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Chapman is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face against Duke on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
LOULouisville
UNCNorth Carolina
vs
Offense
83.9
#45 of 138
QB
Quarterback
71.8
#96 of 138
82.9
#21 of 138
RB
Running backs
67.5
#131 of 138
74.4
#38 of 138
WR
Receivers
72.0
#62 of 138
71.7
#52 of 138
TE
Tight ends
77.2
#33 of 138
63.9
#104 of 138
OL
Offensive line
66.5
#84 of 138
Defense
83.8
#4 of 138
DL
Defensive line
74.8
#55 of 138
79.3
#24 of 138
LB
Linebackers
71.9
#89 of 138
70.7
#87 of 138
DB
Secondary
77.4
#12 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Louisville
opponent
North Carolina
Aaway-3.0
NCSUNC State#63-0.3Hhome
Hhome+1.5
PITTPittsburgh#30+4.0Aaway
Aaway+8.3
SYRSyracuse#68+6.4Hhome