AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#28Away
Louisville
0-0 · AVR 63.9
29p
#61Home
North Carolina
1-0 · AVR 50.8
24p
LOU 63%37% UNC
Spread
LOU -4.9
Total
54
Moneyline
LOU-168UNC+168
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LOU advantageevenUNC advantage →
LOU throw
LOU WR #19
LOU +5
LOU run
LOU +33
UNC throw
LOU +63
UNC run
LOU +50

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when LOU throws
Tre Richardson
vs
Peyton Waters
X · LOU
CB1 · UNC
92.9
69.9
LOU +23
off the edge· hunting Kienholz
Evan Wibberley
vs
Melkart Abou Jaoude
LT · LOU
EDGE · UNC
68.8
87.3
UNC +18
when UNC throws
Jordan Shipp
vs
Antonio Watts
X · UNC
CB1 · LOU
56.0
91.0
LOU +35
when LOU runs
Isaac Brown
vs
Daniel Anderson
RB · LOU
MLB · UNC
73.6
61.1
LOU +12
over the middle
Brody Foley
vs
Kaleb Cost
TE · LOU
FS · UNC
61.4
67.3
UNC +6
off the edge· hunting O'Neill
Christo Kelly
vs
Clev Lubin
LT · UNC
EDGE · LOU
31.8
93.1
LOU +61

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Louisville
WRTre Richardson
92.92/777
DBAntonio Watts
91.09/1427
DBTayon Holloway
81.082/1427
DBKoen Entringer
75.0153/1427
RBIsaac Brownout
73.642/514
LBJacob Smith
67.9178/878

also out — K. Hughes (WR), M. Quisenberry (WR)

North Carolina
DBPeyton Waters
69.9242/1427
DBJaiden Patterson
68.6271/1427
DBGreg Smith
68.2275/1427
TEJelani Thurman
61.143/287
LBDaniel Anderson
61.1267/878
RBDemon June
56.8146/514

also out — J. Warren (TE)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Louisville
opponent
North Carolina
home+4.1
Pittsburgh#33
-8.3away
away-0.8
NC State#34
-3.2home
away+8.7
Syracuse#71
+6.3home

Projected margin

80% between -22 and 13
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLOU +4.995% interval: -28.8 to 1980% interval: -22.3 to 12.5-22+13LOU wins 63%UNC wins 37%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LOU 32–25 UNCUNC 21–56 LOU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUNC 25–53 LOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNC 28–49 LOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNC 32–46 LOU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNC 35–42 LOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNC 39–39 LOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNC 42–35 LOU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNC 46–32 LOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNC 49–28 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNC 18–53 LOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNC 21–49 LOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNC 25–46 LOU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNC 28–42 LOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNC 32–39 LOU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNC 35–35 LOU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNC 39–32 LOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNC 42–28 LOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNC 46–25 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNC 14–49 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNC 18–46 LOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNC 21–42 LOU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNC 25–39 LOU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNC 28–35 LOU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNC 32–32 LOU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNC 35–28 LOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNC 39–25 LOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNC 42–21 LOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNC 11–46 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNC 14–42 LOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNC 18–39 LOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNC 21–35 LOU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNC 25–32 LOU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNC 28–28 LOU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNC 32–25 LOU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNC 35–21 LOU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNC 39–18 LOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNC 7–42 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNC 11–39 LOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNC 14–35 LOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNC 18–32 LOU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNC 21–28 LOU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNC 25–25 LOU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNC 28–21 LOU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNC 32–18 LOU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNC 35–14 LOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNC 4–39 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNC 7–35 LOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNC 11–32 LOU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNC 14–28 LOU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNC 18–25 LOU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNC 21–21 LOU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNC 25–18 LOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNC 28–14 LOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNC 32–11 LOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNC 0–35 LOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNC 4–32 LOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNC 7–28 LOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNC 11–25 LOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNC 14–21 LOU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNC 18–18 LOU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNC 21–14 LOU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNC 25–11 LOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNC 28–7 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalLOU +35LOU +21LOU +7UNC +7UNC +21margin →