Passing
PITT offense
Higher-ranked profile
- PITT offense
- #38
- LOU defense
- #116
EPA comparison
0.33
#38
0.33
#116
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
PITT 46.3%53.7% LOU
- Projected margin
- LOU by 1.5
- Projected total
- 59
- 80% outcome range
- PITT 17 to LOU 20
- Win probability
- LOU 53.7%
Current team profiles
Pittsburgh
LouisvilleWhen Pittsburgh has the ball
Rushing
LOU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- PITT offense
- #93
- LOU defense
- #47
EPA comparison
0.04
#93
0.00
#47
Rush EPA
Drive success
PITT offense
Higher-ranked profile
- PITT offense
- #50
- LOU defense
- #74
Success rates
45%
#50
41%
#74
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#57
0.12
#93
EPA / play
1.23
#74
1.25
#86
Explosiveness
11%
#23
14%
#104
Havoc
When Louisville has the ball
Passing
LOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- PITT defense
- #71
- LOU offense
- #15
EPA comparison
0.15
#71
0.45
#15
Pass EPA
Rushing
PITT defense
Higher-ranked profile
- PITT defense
- #2
- LOU offense
- #17
EPA comparison
-0.23
#2
0.25
#17
Rush EPA
Drive success
PITT defense
Higher-ranked profile
- PITT defense
- #6
- LOU offense
- #18
Success rates
32%
#6
50%
#18
Success rate
More metrics
-0.06
#21
0.34
#6
EPA / play
1.41
#130
1.39
#9
Explosiveness
18%
#34
15%
#84
Havoc
Current key players
PittsburghQBMason Heintschel
1304 yds · 14 TD · 1 INT
82.460/729
LBJustin Thompson
4 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 87.2
- Coverage
- 71.3
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 1
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
86.729/1796
WRBryan Hamilton
1 rec · 36 yds · 1 TD
81.943/2069
DBRashan Murray
5 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 69.3
- Coverage
- 82.4
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 19
- Passer rating allowed
- 10.7
- Missed tackles
- 0
81.843/2969
WRTyreek Robinson
5 rec · 78 yds · 1 TD
80.455/2069
DBShawn Lee Jr.
15 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 76.2
- Coverage
- 79.1
- Targets allowed
- 16
- Rec allowed
- 10
- Yards allowed
- 89
- Passer rating allowed
- 51.3
- Missed tackles
- 4
80.062/2969
Availability reports · 4
- Malik Knight · WRout · 2026-09-26
Knight is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.
- Mason Heintschel · QBQues. · 2026-10-10
Heintschel exited the game with a leg injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against the Boston College on Saturday, Octo
- Elijah Lagg · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Lagg is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will play against Boston College on Saturday, October 17th.
- Max Hunt · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Hunt is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will play against Boston College on Saturday, October 17th.
LouisvilleQBLincoln Kienholz
1394 yds · 9 TD · 1 INT
83.951/729
LBTrent Carter
7 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 84.2
- Coverage
- 72.8
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
90.013/1796
RBBraxton Jennings
31 yds · 1 TD · 7.8 YPC
86.326/1044
WRTre Richardson
28 rec · 445 yds · 2 TD
80.258/2069
LBJacob Smith
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 78.0
- Coverage
- 60.0
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
78.1117/1796
DBBrycen Scott
13 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 79.5
- Coverage
- 72.1
- Targets allowed
- 13
- Rec allowed
- 7
- Yards allowed
- 92
- Passer rating allowed
- 76.4
- Missed tackles
- 0
74.6204/2969
Availability reports · 8
- Antonio Watts · CBout · 2026-09-25
Watts has been out of commission due to a knee injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.
- Kris Hughes · WRout · 2026-08-11
Huges has been out of commission due to lower body injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.
- Keyjuan Brown · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Brown is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Hamilton Atkins · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Atkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Elizjah Lewis · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Lewis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Anwar O'Neal · OGQues. · 2026-10-10
O'Neal is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Montavin Quisenberry · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Quisenberry is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Payton Cook · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Cook is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
PITTPittsburgh
LOULouisville
vs
Offense
82.4
#51 of 138
QB
Quarterback
83.9
#45 of 138
74.1
#81 of 138
RB
Running backs
82.9
#21 of 138
77.6
#20 of 138
WR
Receivers
74.4
#38 of 138
70.8
#61 of 138
TE
Tight ends
71.7
#52 of 138
66.7
#80 of 138
OL
Offensive line
63.9
#104 of 138
Defense
84.2
#2 of 138
DL
Defensive line
83.8
#4 of 138
78.8
#29 of 138
LB
Linebackers
79.3
#24 of 138
75.7
#26 of 138
DB
Secondary
70.7
#87 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Pittsburgh
opponent
Louisville
Hhome-2.9
FSUFlorida State#49+24.0Hhome
Hhome-4.0
UNCNorth Carolina#60+4.5Aaway
Hhome+10.1
GTGeorgia Tech#66+3.6Aaway
Hhome+14.0
SYRSyracuse#68+8.3Aaway