AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#33Away
Pittsburgh
0-0 · AVR 60.7
27p
#28Home
Louisville
0-0 · AVR 63.9
31p
PITT 39%61% LOU
Spread
LOU -4.1
Total
57
Moneyline
PITT+155LOU-155
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← PITT advantageevenLOU advantage →
PITT throw
PITT QB #26PITT protection #78
LOU +29
PITT run
PITT backs #32
LOU +21
LOU throw
LOU WR #19PITT pass rush #8
PITT +7
LOU run
PITT +23

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when LOU throws
Tre Richardson
vs
Shawn Lee Jr.
X · LOU
CB1 · PITT
92.9
84.7
LOU +8
when LOU runs
Isaac Brown
vs
Braylan Lovelace
RB · LOU
MLB · PITT
73.6
89.0
PITT +15
off the edge· hunting Kienholz
Evan Wibberley
vs
Jimmy Scott
LT · LOU
EDGE · PITT
68.8
88.3
PITT +19
when PITT throws
Bryce Yates
vs
Antonio Watts
X · PITT
CB1 · LOU
55.6
91.0
LOU +35
when PITT runs
Ja'Kyrian Turner
vs
Jacob Smith
RB · PITT
MLB · LOU
73.8
67.9
PITT +6
off the edge· hunting Heintschel
Ryan Baer
vs
Clev Lubin
LT · PITT
EDGE · LOU
45.5
93.1
LOU +48

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Pittsburgh
LBBraylan Lovelace
89.012/878
DBShawn Lee Jr.
84.748/1427
LBDeMarco Ward
79.067/878
QBMason Heintschel
77.426/308
DBCruce Brookins
76.7130/1427
RBJa'Kyrian Turner
73.840/514

also out — Keith Gouveia (OL)

Louisville
WRTre Richardson
92.92/777
DBAntonio Watts
91.09/1427
DBTayon Holloway
81.082/1427
DBKoen Entringer
75.0153/1427
RBIsaac Brownout
73.642/514
LBJacob Smith
67.9178/878

also out — K. Hughes (WR), M. Quisenberry (WR)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Pittsburgh
opponent
Louisville
home+12.1
Syracuse#71
+8.7away
home+8.3
North Carolina#61
+4.9away
home+3.0
Georgia Tech#38
-0.4away
home-1.7
Florida State#30
-0.1home

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLOU +4.195% interval: -19.8 to 2880% interval: -13.3 to 21.5-13+22PITT wins 39%LOU wins 61%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LOU 32–25 PITTLOU 28–49 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 32–46 PITT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLOU 35–42 PITT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLOU 39–39 PITT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLOU 42–35 PITT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLOU 46–32 PITT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLOU 49–28 PITT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLOU 53–25 PITT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLOU 56–21 PITT neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesLOU 25–46 PITT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLOU 28–42 PITT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLOU 32–39 PITT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLOU 35–35 PITT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesLOU 39–32 PITT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesLOU 42–28 PITT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLOU 46–25 PITT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLOU 49–21 PITT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLOU 53–18 PITT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLOU 21–42 PITT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLOU 25–39 PITT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLOU 28–35 PITT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLOU 32–32 PITT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLOU 35–28 PITT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLOU 39–25 PITT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLOU 42–21 PITT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLOU 46–18 PITT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLOU 49–14 PITT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLOU 18–39 PITT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLOU 21–35 PITT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLOU 25–32 PITT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLOU 28–28 PITT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLOU 32–25 PITT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLOU 35–21 PITT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLOU 39–18 PITT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLOU 42–14 PITT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLOU 46–11 PITT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLOU 14–35 PITT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLOU 18–32 PITT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLOU 21–28 PITT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLOU 25–25 PITT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLOU 28–21 PITT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLOU 32–18 PITT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLOU 35–14 PITT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLOU 39–11 PITT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLOU 42–7 PITT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLOU 11–32 PITT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLOU 14–28 PITT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLOU 18–25 PITT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLOU 21–21 PITT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLOU 25–18 PITT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLOU 28–14 PITT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLOU 32–11 PITT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLOU 35–7 PITT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLOU 39–4 PITT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLOU 7–28 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 11–25 PITT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLOU 14–21 PITT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLOU 18–18 PITT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLOU 21–14 PITT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLOU 25–11 PITT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLOU 28–7 PITT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLOU 32–4 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 35–0 PITT neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalPITT +21PITT +7LOU +7LOU +21LOU +35margin →