AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
Governor's Cup (Kentucky)
#28Away
Louisville
0-0 · AVR 63.9
31p
#67Home
Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 49.8
23p
LOU 71%29% UK
Spread
LOU -8.1
Total
55
Moneyline
LOU-242UK+242
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LOU advantageevenUK advantage →
LOU throw
LOU WR #19UK pass rush #49
LOU +17
LOU run
LOU +11
UK throw
UK protection #32
LOU +48
UK run
UK backs #105
LOU +23

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Minchey
Coleton Price
vs
Clev Lubin
LT · UK
EDGE · LOU
85.1
93.1
LOU +8
when LOU throws
Tre Richardson
vs
Jesse Anderson III
X · LOU
CB1 · UK
92.9
70.2
LOU +23
off the edge· hunting Kienholz
Evan Wibberley
vs
Mi'Quise Humphrey-Grace
LT · LOU
EDGE · UK
68.8
84.7
UK +16
when LOU runs
Isaac Brown
vs
Lorenzo Cowan
RB · LOU
MLB · UK
73.6
66.0
LOU +8
when UK throws
Nic Anderson
vs
Antonio Watts
X · UK
CB1 · LOU
45.6
91.0
LOU +45
when UK runs
CJ Baxter
vs
Jacob Smith
RB · UK
MLB · LOU
52.0
67.9
LOU +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Louisville
WRTre Richardson
92.92/777
DBAntonio Watts
91.09/1427
DBTayon Holloway
81.082/1427
DBKoen Entringer
75.0153/1427
RBIsaac Brownout
73.642/514
LBJacob Smith
67.9178/878

also out — K. Hughes (WR), M. Quisenberry (WR)

Kentucky
DBJesse Anderson III
70.2234/1427
DBTy Bryant
68.1277/1427
LBLorenzo Cowan
66.0199/878
LBSam Greene
65.4207/878
QBKenny Minchey
53.8109/308
RBCJ Baxterprobable
52.0227/514

also out — T. Mizell (RB), Jovantae Barnes (RB)

Projected margin

80% between -26 and 10
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLOU +8.195% interval: -32.7 to 16.480% interval: -26 to 9.7-26+10LOU wins 71%UK wins 29%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LOU 32–25 UKUK 21–56 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 25–53 LOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUK 28–49 LOU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUK 32–46 LOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUK 35–42 LOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUK 39–39 LOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUK 42–35 LOU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUK 46–32 LOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUK 49–28 LOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUK 18–53 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUK 21–49 LOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUK 25–46 LOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUK 28–42 LOU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUK 32–39 LOU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUK 35–35 LOU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUK 39–32 LOU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUK 42–28 LOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUK 46–25 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 14–49 LOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUK 18–46 LOU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUK 21–42 LOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUK 25–39 LOU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUK 28–35 LOU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUK 32–32 LOU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUK 35–28 LOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUK 39–25 LOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUK 42–21 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 11–46 LOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUK 14–42 LOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUK 18–39 LOU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUK 21–35 LOU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUK 25–32 LOU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUK 28–28 LOU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUK 32–25 LOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUK 35–21 LOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUK 39–18 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUK 7–42 LOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUK 11–39 LOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUK 14–35 LOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUK 18–32 LOU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUK 21–28 LOU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUK 25–25 LOU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUK 28–21 LOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUK 32–18 LOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUK 35–14 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 4–39 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUK 7–35 LOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUK 11–32 LOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUK 14–28 LOU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUK 18–25 LOU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUK 21–21 LOU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUK 25–18 LOU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUK 28–14 LOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUK 32–11 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 0–35 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 4–32 LOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUK 7–28 LOU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUK 11–25 LOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUK 14–21 LOU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUK 18–18 LOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUK 21–14 LOU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUK 25–11 LOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUK 28–7 LOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalLOU +35LOU +21LOU +7UK +7UK +21margin →