AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Fri Sep 11 · 11:00 PM
Away
Villanova
—
11p
#28Home
Louisville
0-0 · AVR 63.9
46p
VILL 1%99% LOU
Spread
LOU -35.4
Total
57
Moneyline
VILL—LOU—
Margin σ
14.1

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Louisville
WRTre Richardson
92.92/777
DBAntonio Watts
91.09/1427
DBTayon Holloway
81.082/1427
DBKoen Entringer
75.0153/1427
RBIsaac Brownout
73.642/514
LBJacob Smith
67.9178/878

also out — K. Hughes (WR), M. Quisenberry (WR)

Projected margin

80% between 19 and 52
-7-3+3+7+14PKLOU +35.495% interval: 12.4 to 58.480% interval: 18.7 to 52.1+19+52VILL wins 1%LOU wins 99%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LOU 46–11 VILLLOU 42–35 VILL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLOU 46–32 VILL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLOU 49–28 VILL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLOU 53–25 VILL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLOU 56–21 VILL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLOU 60–18 VILL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLOU 63–14 VILL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLOU 67–11 VILL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLOU 70–7 VILL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLOU 39–32 VILL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLOU 42–28 VILL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLOU 46–25 VILL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLOU 49–21 VILL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesLOU 53–18 VILL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLOU 56–14 VILL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLOU 60–11 VILL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLOU 63–7 VILL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLOU 67–4 VILL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 35–28 VILL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 39–25 VILL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLOU 42–21 VILL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLOU 46–18 VILL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLOU 49–14 VILL neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesLOU 53–11 VILL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLOU 56–7 VILL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLOU 60–4 VILL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLOU 63–0 VILL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 32–25 VILL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 35–21 VILL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLOU 39–18 VILL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLOU 42–14 VILL neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesLOU 46–11 VILL neighborhood · ~3.9% of outcomesLOU 49–7 VILL neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesLOU 53–4 VILL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLOU 56–0 VILL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)LOU 28–21 VILL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 32–18 VILL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLOU 35–14 VILL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLOU 39–11 VILL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLOU 42–7 VILL neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesLOU 46–4 VILL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLOU 49–0 VILL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)LOU 25–18 VILL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLOU 28–14 VILL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLOU 32–11 VILL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLOU 35–7 VILL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLOU 39–4 VILL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLOU 42–0 VILL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)LOU 21–14 VILL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLOU 25–11 VILL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLOU 28–7 VILL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLOU 32–4 VILL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLOU 35–0 VILL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalLOU +7LOU +21LOU +35LOU +49LOU +63margin →