Passing
No comparison
- VILL offense
- —
- LOU defense
- #116
EPA comparison
—
0.33
#116
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 2 · Fri Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
VILL 0.2%99.8% LOU
- Projected margin
- LOU by 39.8
- Projected total
- 59
- 80% outcome range
- LOU 19 to LOU 59
- Win probability
- LOU 99.8%
FinalVILL 13 · LOU 59model had +39.8, off by 6.2
Current team profiles
Villanova
LouisvilleWhen Villanova has the ball
Rushing
No comparison
- VILL offense
- —
- LOU defense
- #47
EPA comparison
—
0.00
#47
Rush EPA
Drive success
No comparison
- VILL offense
- #19
- LOU defense
- #74
Success rates
47%
#19
41%
#74
Success rate
More metrics
0.12
#58
0.12
#93
EPA / play
0.23
#15
1.25
#86
Explosiveness
—
14%
#104
Havoc
When Louisville has the ball
Passing
No comparison
- VILL defense
- —
- LOU offense
- #15
EPA comparison
—
0.45
#15
Pass EPA
Rushing
No comparison
- VILL defense
- —
- LOU offense
- #17
EPA comparison
—
0.25
#17
Rush EPA
Drive success
No comparison
- VILL defense
- #60
- LOU offense
- #18
Success rates
43%
#60
50%
#18
Success rate
More metrics
0.11
#62
0.34
#6
EPA / play
0.20
#40
1.39
#9
Explosiveness
—
15%
#84
Havoc
Current key players
VillanovaQBPat McQuaide
1335 yds · 7 TD · 6 INT
83.624/370
LBOmari Bursey
63 tkl · 6.5 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 91.9
- Coverage
- 75.2
- Pressures
- 20
- Pass-rush snaps
- 47
- Missed tackles
- 6
- Forced fumbles
- 1
90.24/1054
DLRatu Delano Navoti
5 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 79.7
- Pressures
- 11
- Pass-rush snaps
- 60
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 0
85.510/1549
DLDrake Dawson
— tkl · — TFL · — sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 74.8
- Pressures
- 0
- Pass-rush snaps
- 3
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
77.574/1549
LBColin Gurley
9 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 74.7
- Coverage
- 74.5
- Pressures
- 0
- Pass-rush snaps
- 13
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
75.1105/1054
KDominic LeBlanc
6/8 FG · 0%
73.949/416
LouisvilleQBLincoln Kienholz
1394 yds · 9 TD · 1 INT
83.951/729
LBTrent Carter
7 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 84.2
- Coverage
- 72.8
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
90.013/1796
RBBraxton Jennings
31 yds · 1 TD · 7.8 YPC
86.326/1044
WRTre Richardson
28 rec · 445 yds · 2 TD
80.258/2069
LBJacob Smith
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 78.0
- Coverage
- 60.0
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
78.1117/1796
DBBrycen Scott
13 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 79.5
- Coverage
- 72.1
- Targets allowed
- 13
- Rec allowed
- 7
- Yards allowed
- 92
- Passer rating allowed
- 76.4
- Missed tackles
- 0
74.6204/2969
Availability reports · 8
- Antonio Watts · CBout · 2026-09-25
Watts has been out of commission due to a knee injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.
- Kris Hughes · WRout · 2026-08-11
Huges has been out of commission due to lower body injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.
- Keyjuan Brown · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Brown is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Hamilton Atkins · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Atkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Elizjah Lewis · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Lewis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Anwar O'Neal · OGQues. · 2026-10-10
O'Neal is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Montavin Quisenberry · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Quisenberry is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Payton Cook · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Cook is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
VILLVillanova
LOULouisville
vs
Offense
83.6
#23 of 125
QB
Quarterback
83.9
#45 of 138
66.2
#108 of 126
RB
Running backs
82.9
#21 of 138
68.0
#72 of 126
WR
Receivers
74.4
#38 of 138
63.3
#70 of 124
TE
Tight ends
71.7
#52 of 138
62.5
#90 of 125
OL
Offensive line
63.9
#104 of 138
Defense
77.2
#15 of 126
DL
Defensive line
83.8
#4 of 138
77.8
#15 of 126
LB
Linebackers
79.3
#24 of 138
67.5
#112 of 126
DB
Secondary
70.7
#87 of 138