AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#28Away
Louisville
0-0 · AVR 63.9
28p
#38Home
Georgia Tech
0-0 · AVR 59.1
29p
LOU 49%51% GT
Spread
GT -0.4
Total
57
Moneyline
LOU+106GT-106
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LOU advantageevenGT advantage →
LOU throw
LOU WR #19
LOU +19
LOU run
LOU +32
GT throw
GT protection #23
LOU +27
GT run
GT +9

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when LOU throws
Tre Richardson
vs
Jonas Duclona
X · LOU
CB1 · GT
92.9
85.0
LOU +8
off the edge· hunting Mendoza
Will Reed
vs
Clev Lubin
LT · GT
EDGE · LOU
84.8
93.1
LOU +8
when GT throws
Jordan Allen
vs
Antonio Watts
X · GT
CB1 · LOU
64.6
91.0
LOU +26
when GT runs
Justice Haynes
vs
Jacob Smith
RB · GT
MLB · LOU
77.3
67.9
GT +9
when LOU runs
Isaac Brown
vs
Kyle Efford
RB · LOU
MLB · GT
73.6
60.9
LOU +13
off the edge· hunting Kienholz
Evan Wibberley
vs
Brayden Manley
LT · LOU
EDGE · GT
68.8
59.3
LOU +10

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Louisville
WRTre Richardson
92.92/777
DBAntonio Watts
91.09/1427
DBTayon Holloway
81.082/1427
DBKoen Entringer
75.0153/1427
RBIsaac Brownout
73.642/514
LBJacob Smith
67.9178/878

also out — K. Hughes (WR), M. Quisenberry (WR)

Georgia Tech
CBJonas Duclona
85.044/1427
CBJaylen Mbakwe
81.281/1427
RBJustice Haynes
77.331/514
WRJordan Allen
64.686/777
LBKyle Efford
60.9268/878
LBCayman Spaulding
60.1284/878

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Louisville
opponent
Georgia Tech
home+4.1
Pittsburgh#33
-3.0away
home+19.9
Stanford#96
+12.8away
home+8.2
Wake Forest#46
+6.1home

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKGT +0.495% interval: -23.5 to 24.380% interval: -17 to 17.8-17+18LOU wins 49%GT wins 51%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ GT 28–28 LOUGT 25–53 LOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGT 28–49 LOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGT 32–46 LOU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGT 35–42 LOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGT 39–39 LOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGT 42–35 LOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGT 46–32 LOU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGT 49–28 LOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGT 53–25 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGT 21–49 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGT 25–46 LOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGT 28–42 LOU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGT 32–39 LOU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGT 35–35 LOU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGT 39–32 LOU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGT 42–28 LOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGT 46–25 LOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGT 49–21 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGT 18–46 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGT 21–42 LOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGT 25–39 LOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGT 28–35 LOU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGT 32–32 LOU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesGT 35–28 LOU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesGT 39–25 LOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGT 42–21 LOU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGT 46–18 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGT 14–42 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGT 18–39 LOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGT 21–35 LOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGT 25–32 LOU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesGT 28–28 LOU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesGT 32–25 LOU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesGT 35–21 LOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGT 39–18 LOU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGT 42–14 LOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGT 11–39 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGT 14–35 LOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGT 18–32 LOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGT 21–28 LOU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGT 25–25 LOU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesGT 28–21 LOU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesGT 32–18 LOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGT 35–14 LOU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGT 39–11 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGT 7–35 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGT 11–32 LOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGT 14–28 LOU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGT 18–25 LOU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGT 21–21 LOU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGT 25–18 LOU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGT 28–14 LOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGT 32–11 LOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGT 35–7 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGT 4–32 LOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGT 7–28 LOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGT 11–25 LOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGT 14–21 LOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGT 18–18 LOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGT 21–14 LOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGT 25–11 LOU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGT 28–7 LOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGT 32–4 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalLOU +28LOU +14PKGT +14GT +28margin →