AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sun Nov 22 · 12:30 AM
#18Away
SMU
0-0 · AVR 69.4
23p
#4Home
Notre Dame
0-0 · AVR 79.4
35p
SMU 20%80% ND
Spread
ND -12.3
Total
58
Moneyline
SMU+390ND-390
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SMU advantageevenND advantage →
SMU throw
ND +14
SMU run
ND +25
ND throw
ND QB #3ND protection #109
SMU +12
ND run
SMU +59

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SMU throws
Yannick Smith
vs
Leonard Moore
X · SMU
CB1 · ND
67.8
101.6
ND +34
when SMU runs
Kendrick Raphael
vs
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa
RB · SMU
MLB · ND
77.0
86.5
ND +9
over the middle
Randy Pittman
vs
Luke Talich
TE · SMU
FS · ND
70.6
86.9
ND +16
when ND throws
Jordan Faison
vs
Marcellus Barnes Jr.
X · ND
CB1 · SMU
74.7
80.1
SMU +5
off the edge· hunting Jennings
Addison Nichols
vs
Boubacar Traore
LT · SMU
EDGE · ND
64.4
88.4
ND +24
over the middle
Jack Larsen
vs
Tyren Polley
TE · ND
FS · SMU
60.8
76.6
SMU +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
SMU
QBKevin Jennings
82.117/308
CBMarcellus Barnes Jr.
80.190/1427
LBBrandon Miyazono
79.363/878
CBJaelyn Davis-Robinson
78.8103/1427
RBKendrick Raphael
77.032/514
SJimmy Wyrick
77.0124/1427

also out — Braylon Williams (LB), Abel Hoopii (OL), L. Rhodes (RB)

Notre Dame
CBLeonard Moore
101.61/1427
QBCJ Carrprobable
95.13/308
SBrauntae Johnson
91.58/1427
SAdon Shuler
86.929/1427
LBKyngstonn Viliamu-Asaprobable
86.516/878
LBDrayk Bowen
82.738/878

also out — Charles Jagusah, Player 2, Matty Augustine (OL), Notre Dame reserve, Quincy Porter (WR), Decision Means Losing, Jackson Hill (RB), Notre Dame football 2027 commit +2 more

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
SMU
opponent
Notre Dame
away+20.9
Stanford#96
+35.7home
home+20.0
Boston College#79
+29.8home
away+14.7
Syracuse#71
+24.5away

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKND +12.395% interval: -11.6 to 36.280% interval: -5.1 to 29.7-5+30SMU wins 20%ND wins 80%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ND 35–21 SMUND 32–46 SMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesND 35–42 SMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesND 39–39 SMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesND 42–35 SMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesND 46–32 SMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesND 49–28 SMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesND 53–25 SMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesND 56–21 SMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesND 60–18 SMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesND 28–42 SMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesND 32–39 SMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesND 35–35 SMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesND 39–32 SMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesND 42–28 SMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesND 46–25 SMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesND 49–21 SMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesND 53–18 SMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesND 56–14 SMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 25–39 SMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesND 28–35 SMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesND 32–32 SMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesND 35–28 SMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesND 39–25 SMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesND 42–21 SMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesND 46–18 SMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesND 49–14 SMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesND 53–11 SMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 21–35 SMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesND 25–32 SMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesND 28–28 SMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesND 32–25 SMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesND 35–21 SMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesND 39–18 SMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesND 42–14 SMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesND 46–11 SMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesND 49–7 SMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 18–32 SMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesND 21–28 SMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesND 25–25 SMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesND 28–21 SMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesND 32–18 SMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesND 35–14 SMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesND 39–11 SMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesND 42–7 SMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesND 46–4 SMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 14–28 SMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesND 18–25 SMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesND 21–21 SMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesND 25–18 SMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesND 28–14 SMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesND 32–11 SMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesND 35–7 SMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesND 39–4 SMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesND 42–0 SMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesND 11–25 SMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 14–21 SMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesND 18–18 SMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesND 21–14 SMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesND 25–11 SMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesND 28–7 SMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesND 32–4 SMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesND 35–0 SMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalSMU +14PKND +14ND +28ND +42margin →