AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 8:00 PM
Away
UC Davis
—
8p
#18Home
SMU
0-0 · AVR 69.4
49p
UCD 0%100% SMU
Spread
SMU -41.4
Total
57
Moneyline
UCD—SMU—
Margin σ
14.1

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
SMU
QBKevin Jennings
82.117/308
CBMarcellus Barnes Jr.
80.190/1427
LBBrandon Miyazono
79.363/878
CBJaelyn Davis-Robinson
78.8103/1427
RBKendrick Raphael
77.032/514
SJimmy Wyrick
77.0124/1427

also out — Braylon Williams (LB), Abel Hoopii (OL), L. Rhodes (RB)

Projected margin

80% between 25 and 58
-7-3+3+7+14PKSMU +41.495% interval: 18.4 to 64.480% interval: 24.7 to 58.1+25+58UCD wins 0%SMU wins 100%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SMU 49–7 UCDSMU 46–32 UCD neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 49–28 UCD neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSMU 53–25 UCD neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSMU 56–21 UCD neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSMU 60–18 UCD neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSMU 63–14 UCD neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSMU 67–11 UCD neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSMU 70–7 UCD neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSMU 74–4 UCD neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 42–28 UCD neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 46–25 UCD neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSMU 49–21 UCD neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSMU 53–18 UCD neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSMU 56–14 UCD neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesSMU 60–11 UCD neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSMU 63–7 UCD neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSMU 67–4 UCD neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSMU 70–0 UCD neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 39–25 UCD neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSMU 42–21 UCD neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSMU 46–18 UCD neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSMU 49–14 UCD neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesSMU 53–11 UCD neighborhood · ~4.1% of outcomesSMU 56–7 UCD neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesSMU 60–4 UCD neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSMU 63–0 UCD neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)SMU 35–21 UCD neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSMU 39–18 UCD neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSMU 42–14 UCD neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSMU 46–11 UCD neighborhood · ~3.8% of outcomesSMU 49–7 UCD neighborhood · ~4.2% of outcomesSMU 53–4 UCD neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesSMU 56–0 UCD neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)SMU 32–18 UCD neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSMU 35–14 UCD neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSMU 39–11 UCD neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSMU 42–7 UCD neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesSMU 46–4 UCD neighborhood · ~3.9% of outcomesSMU 49–0 UCD neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)SMU 28–14 UCD neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 32–11 UCD neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSMU 35–7 UCD neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSMU 39–4 UCD neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSMU 42–0 UCD neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)SMU 25–11 UCD neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 28–7 UCD neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSMU 32–4 UCD neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSMU 35–0 UCD neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalSMU +14SMU +28SMU +42SMU +56SMU +70margin →