AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7
#57Away
Virginia Tech
0-0 · AVR 52.8
20p
#18Home
SMU
0-0 · AVR 69.4
36p
VT 14%86% SMU
Spread
SMU -16.1
Total
56
Moneyline
VT+640SMU-640
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← VT advantageevenSMU advantage →
VT throw
SMU +19
VT run
SMU +12
SMU throw
SMU +21
SMU run
SMU +9

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SMU throws
Yannick Smith
vs
Jaquez White
X · SMU
CB1 · VT
67.8
90.0
VT +22
off the edge· hunting Grunkemeyer
Brody Meadows
vs
Marques White
LT · VT
EDGE · SMU
73.1
83.4
SMU +10
when VT throws
Que'Sean Brown
vs
Marcellus Barnes Jr.
X · VT
CB1 · SMU
74.1
80.1
SMU +6
when VT runs
Marcellous Hawkins
vs
Brandon Miyazono
RB · VT
MLB · SMU
71.4
79.3
SMU +8
when SMU runs
Kendrick Raphael
vs
Curtis Jones Jr.
RB · SMU
MLB · VT
77.0
68.4
SMU +9
over the middle
Luke Reynolds
vs
Tyren Polley
TE · VT
FS · SMU
67.2
76.6
SMU +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Virginia Tech
CBJaquez White
90.012/1427
CBCam Chadwick Jr.
75.7146/1427
WRQue'Sean Brown
74.136/777
RBMarcellous Hawkins
71.446/514
LBCurtis Jones Jr.
68.4170/878
TELuke Reynolds
67.216/287

also out — Gabe Williams (LB)

SMU
QBKevin Jennings
82.117/308
CBMarcellus Barnes Jr.
80.190/1427
LBBrandon Miyazono
79.363/878
CBJaelyn Davis-Robinson
78.8103/1427
RBKendrick Raphael
77.032/514
SJimmy Wyrick
77.0124/1427

also out — Braylon Williams (LB), Abel Hoopii (OL), L. Rhodes (RB)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Virginia Tech
opponent
SMU
away+1.4
Boston College#79
+20.0home
away+0.6
California#68
+19.2home
home+0.5
Virginia#49
+14.1home
home+12.3
Stanford#96
+20.9away

Projected margin

80% between -1 and 34
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSMU +16.195% interval: -7.8 to 4080% interval: -1.3 to 33.5-1+34VT wins 14%SMU wins 86%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SMU 35–21 VTSMU 32–46 VT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSMU 35–42 VT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSMU 39–39 VT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSMU 42–35 VT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSMU 46–32 VT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSMU 49–28 VT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSMU 53–25 VT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSMU 56–21 VT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSMU 60–18 VT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 28–42 VT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSMU 32–39 VT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSMU 35–35 VT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSMU 39–32 VT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSMU 42–28 VT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSMU 46–25 VT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSMU 49–21 VT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSMU 53–18 VT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSMU 56–14 VT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSMU 25–39 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 28–35 VT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSMU 32–32 VT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSMU 35–28 VT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSMU 39–25 VT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSMU 42–21 VT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSMU 46–18 VT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSMU 49–14 VT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSMU 53–11 VT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSMU 21–35 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 25–32 VT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSMU 28–28 VT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSMU 32–25 VT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSMU 35–21 VT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSMU 39–18 VT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSMU 42–14 VT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSMU 46–11 VT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSMU 49–7 VT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSMU 18–32 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 21–28 VT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSMU 25–25 VT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSMU 28–21 VT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSMU 32–18 VT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSMU 35–14 VT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSMU 39–11 VT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSMU 42–7 VT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSMU 46–4 VT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSMU 14–28 VT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSMU 18–25 VT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSMU 21–21 VT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSMU 25–18 VT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSMU 28–14 VT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSMU 32–11 VT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSMU 35–7 VT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSMU 39–4 VT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSMU 42–0 VT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSMU 11–25 VT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSMU 14–21 VT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSMU 18–18 VT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSMU 21–14 VT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSMU 25–11 VT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSMU 28–7 VT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSMU 32–4 VT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSMU 35–0 VT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalVT +14PKSMU +14SMU +28SMU +42margin →