AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#18Away
SMU
0-0 · AVR 69.4
38p
#96Home
Stanford
0-0 · AVR 41.0
17p
SMU 92%8% STAN
Spread
SMU -20.9
Total
54
Moneyline
SMU-1216STAN+1216
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SMU advantageevenSTAN advantage →
SMU throw
SMU +41
SMU run
STAN front #97STAN linebackers #25
SMU +10
STAN throw
STAN protection #61
SMU +67
STAN run
SMU +40

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SMU runs
Kendrick Raphael
vs
Matt Rose
RB · SMU
MLB · STAN
77.0
78.1
dead even
when STAN runs
Micah Ford
vs
Brandon Miyazono
RB · STAN
MLB · SMU
64.3
79.3
SMU +15
when SMU throws
Yannick Smith
vs
Jay Green
X · SMU
CB1 · STAN
67.8
70.7
dead even
off the edge· hunting Mirer
Nathan Mejia
vs
Marques White
LT · STAN
EDGE · SMU
52.8
83.4
SMU +31
when STAN throws
Caden High
vs
Marcellus Barnes Jr.
X · STAN
CB1 · SMU
52.4
80.1
SMU +28
off the edge· hunting Jennings
Addison Nichols
vs
Joe Asiain
LT · SMU
EDGE · STAN
64.4
65.5
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
SMU
QBKevin Jennings
82.117/308
CBMarcellus Barnes Jr.
80.190/1427
LBBrandon Miyazono
79.363/878
CBJaelyn Davis-Robinson
78.8103/1427
RBKendrick Raphael
77.032/514
SJimmy Wyrick
77.0124/1427

also out — Braylon Williams (LB), Abel Hoopii (OL), L. Rhodes (RB)

Stanford
LBMatt Rose
78.178/878
LBTevarua Tafiti
74.3111/878
SJay Green
70.7219/1427
CBBrandon Nicholson
70.6224/1427
RBMicah Ford
64.380/514
SJaylen'Dai Sumlin
55.5604/1427

also out — N. Prongos (OG)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
SMU
opponent
Stanford
home+16.1
Virginia Tech#57
-12.3away
home+19.2
California#68
-9.2away
home+14.2
Wake Forest#46
-14.2away
away-12.3
Notre Dame#4
-35.7away
away+3.5
Louisville#28
-19.9away

Projected margin

80% between -39 and -3
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSMU +20.995% interval: -45.5 to 3.780% interval: -38.8 to -3-39-3SMU wins 92%STAN wins 8%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SMU 39–18 STANSTAN 14–63 SMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSTAN 18–60 SMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSTAN 21–56 SMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSTAN 25–53 SMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSTAN 28–49 SMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSTAN 32–46 SMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSTAN 35–42 SMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSTAN 39–39 SMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSTAN 42–35 SMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSTAN 11–60 SMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSTAN 14–56 SMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSTAN 18–53 SMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSTAN 21–49 SMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSTAN 25–46 SMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSTAN 28–42 SMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSTAN 32–39 SMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSTAN 35–35 SMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSTAN 39–32 SMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSTAN 7–56 SMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSTAN 11–53 SMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSTAN 14–49 SMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSTAN 18–46 SMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSTAN 21–42 SMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSTAN 25–39 SMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSTAN 28–35 SMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSTAN 32–32 SMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSTAN 35–28 SMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSTAN 4–53 SMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSTAN 7–49 SMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSTAN 11–46 SMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSTAN 14–42 SMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSTAN 18–39 SMU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSTAN 21–35 SMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSTAN 25–32 SMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSTAN 28–28 SMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSTAN 32–25 SMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSTAN 0–49 SMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSTAN 4–46 SMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSTAN 7–42 SMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSTAN 11–39 SMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSTAN 14–35 SMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSTAN 18–32 SMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSTAN 21–28 SMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSTAN 25–25 SMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSTAN 28–21 SMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)STAN 0–42 SMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSTAN 4–39 SMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSTAN 7–35 SMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSTAN 11–32 SMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSTAN 14–28 SMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSTAN 18–25 SMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSTAN 21–21 SMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSTAN 25–18 SMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)STAN 0–35 SMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSTAN 4–32 SMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSTAN 7–28 SMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSTAN 11–25 SMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSTAN 14–21 SMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSTAN 18–18 SMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSTAN 21–14 SMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalSMU +49SMU +35SMU +21SMU +7STAN +7margin →