CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
SMU 85.4%14.6% STAN
Projected margin
SMU by 16.7
Projected total
56
80% outcome range
SMU 35 to STAN 2
Win probability
SMU 85.4%

Current team profiles

SMU
Stanford

When SMU has the ball

Passing

SMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
SMU offense
#10
STAN defense
#136
EPA comparison
0.51
#10
0.47
#136
Pass EPA

Rushing

SMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
SMU offense
#116
STAN defense
#138
EPA comparison
-0.02
#116
0.32
#138
Rush EPA

Drive success

SMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
SMU offense
#26
STAN defense
#133
Success rates
49%
#26
50%
#133
Success rate
More metrics
0.22
#41
0.37
#138
EPA / play
1.27
#44
1.35
#117
Explosiveness
14%
#52
11%
#131
Havoc

When Stanford has the ball

Passing

SMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
SMU defense
#34
STAN offense
#88
EPA comparison
0.05
#34
0.14
#88
Pass EPA

Rushing

SMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
SMU defense
#81
STAN offense
#126
EPA comparison
0.06
#81
-0.08
#126
Rush EPA

Drive success

SMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
SMU defense
#37
STAN offense
#126
Success rates
37%
#37
37%
#126
Success rate
More metrics
0.04
#58
0.04
#111
EPA / play
1.38
#124
1.20
#91
Explosiveness
22%
#5
14%
#60
Havoc

Current key players

SMU
QBTy Hawkins
104 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
90.124/729
SJarvis Lee
22 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
90.9
Coverage
82.3
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
139
Passer rating allowed
75.7
Missed tackles
2
87.318/2969
SJaylen Moses
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
50.1
Coverage
90.0
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
-2
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
1
86.520/2969
TEZack Turner
3 rec · 53 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
68.5
Run blocking
55.8
Penalties
0
78.631/1017
LBAlexander Kilgore
25 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.8
Coverage
69.8
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
16
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
78.3113/1796
LBJamal Anderson
12 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
72.4
Coverage
72.1
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
14
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
76.6148/1796
Availability reports · 8
  • Ira Singleton · DLout · 2026-09-29

    Singleton is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Link Rhodes · RBout · 2026-08-26

    Rhodes has been out of the lineup with a tore ACL injury, and he will be out of commission for the remainder of the season.

  • Yamir Knight · WRQues. · 2026-09-29

    Knight is dealing with un undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston College.

  • Yannick Smith · WRQues. · 2026-09-29

    Smith is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston

  • Nick Reed · KQues. · 2026-10-01

    Reed is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston.

  • Miles Uter · TEQues. · 2026-09-12

    Uter is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be available against Louisville on Saturday, Septembe

  • Christian Rhodes · RBQues. · 2026-09-12

    Rhodes is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be available against Louisville on Saturday, Septem

  • EJ Kelly · RBprobable · 2026-09-17

    Kelly is dealing with an undisclosed injury , but he is likely to play against Louisville on Saturday, 19th September.

Stanford
QBDavis Warren
1207 yds · 5 TD · 1 INT
70.0153/729
WRNico Brown
10 rec · 148 yds · 1 TD
79.363/2069
RBTuna Altahir
8 yds · 0 TD · 4.0 YPC
75.3173/1044
LBGabe Kaminski
11 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
75.0
Coverage
70.9
Pressures
9
Pass-rush snaps
61
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
73.2253/1796
CBBrandon Nicholson
9 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.2
Coverage
74.5
Targets allowed
13
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
57
Passer rating allowed
52.4
Missed tackles
2
72.6298/2969
WRCaden High
17 rec · 236 yds · 3 TD
72.3187/2069
Availability reports · 5
  • Niki Prongos · OGQues. · 2026-10-11

    Prongos is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will suit up against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Aidan Kilstrom · OGQues. · 2026-10-11

    Kilstrom is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Carter Shaw · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Shaw is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Daylen Sharper · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sharper is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.

  • London Bironas · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Bironas is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

SMU
STAN
vs
Offense
90.1
#23 of 138
QB
70.0
#100 of 138
70.7
#115 of 138
RB
73.3
#92 of 138
73.9
#44 of 138
WR
72.2
#56 of 138
78.6
#28 of 138
TE
57.5
#133 of 138
66.6
#83 of 138
OL
67.0
#79 of 138
Defense
77.2
#33 of 138
DL
65.3
#134 of 138
71.9
#90 of 138
LB
68.4
#119 of 138
78.1
#9 of 138
DB
68.3
#116 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

SMU
opponent
Stanford
H+6.5
WAKE#26
-54.0A
A-13.9
ND#1
-51.0A
H+13.8
VT#46
-10.9A
H+20.6
CAL#90
-4.0A
A-10.0
LOU#27
-15.7A