AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#18Away
SMU
0-0 · AVR 69.4
36p
#71Home
Syracuse
0-0 · AVR 48.1
21p
SMU 84%16% SYR
Spread
SMU -14.7
Total
57
Moneyline
SMU-542SYR+542
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SMU advantageevenSYR advantage →
SMU throw
SMU +36
SMU run
SMU +19
SYR throw
SYR QB #29SYR protection #93
SMU +32
SYR run
SMU +71

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SMU runs
Kendrick Raphael
vs
Chris D'Appolonia
RB · SMU
MLB · SYR
77.0
80.0
SYR +3
off the edge· hunting Jennings
Addison Nichols
vs
Tunmise Adeleye
LT · SMU
EDGE · SYR
64.4
80.3
SYR +16
when SMU throws
Yannick Smith
vs
Nazir Ward
X · SMU
CB1 · SYR
67.8
68.7
dead even
when SYR throws
Cole Weaver
vs
Marcellus Barnes Jr.
X · SYR
CB1 · SMU
54.3
80.1
SMU +26
over the middle
Noah Meyers
vs
Tyren Polley
TE · SYR
FS · SMU
53.0
76.6
SMU +24
over the middle
Randy Pittman
vs
Demetres Samuel Jr.
TE · SMU
FS · SYR
70.6
55.5
SMU +15

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
SMU
QBKevin Jennings
82.117/308
CBMarcellus Barnes Jr.
80.190/1427
LBBrandon Miyazono
79.363/878
CBJaelyn Davis-Robinson
78.8103/1427
RBKendrick Raphael
77.032/514
SJimmy Wyrick
77.0124/1427

also out — Braylon Williams (LB), Abel Hoopii (OL), L. Rhodes (RB)

Syracuse
LBChris D'Appolonia
80.053/878
QBAmari Odom
74.229/308
DBNazir Ward
68.7268/1427
DBJai Eugene Jr.
60.6466/1427
DBChris Peal
60.1477/1427
LBJosh Kubala
55.6378/878

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
SMU
opponent
Syracuse
home+20.0
Boston College#79
-2.2away
home+14.1
Virginia#49
-8.1away
home+19.2
California#68
+2.0home
away+3.5
Louisville#28
-8.7home
away-12.3
Notre Dame#4
-24.5home

Projected margin

80% between -32 and 3
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSMU +14.795% interval: -38.6 to 9.280% interval: -32.1 to 2.7-32+3SMU wins 84%SYR wins 16%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SMU 35–21 SYRSYR 18–60 SMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSYR 21–56 SMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSYR 25–53 SMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSYR 28–49 SMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSYR 32–46 SMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSYR 35–42 SMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSYR 39–39 SMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSYR 42–35 SMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSYR 46–32 SMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSYR 14–56 SMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSYR 18–53 SMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSYR 21–49 SMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSYR 25–46 SMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSYR 28–42 SMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSYR 32–39 SMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSYR 35–35 SMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSYR 39–32 SMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSYR 42–28 SMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSYR 11–53 SMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSYR 14–49 SMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSYR 18–46 SMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSYR 21–42 SMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSYR 25–39 SMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSYR 28–35 SMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSYR 32–32 SMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSYR 35–28 SMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSYR 39–25 SMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSYR 7–49 SMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSYR 11–46 SMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSYR 14–42 SMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSYR 18–39 SMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSYR 21–35 SMU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSYR 25–32 SMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSYR 28–28 SMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSYR 32–25 SMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSYR 35–21 SMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSYR 4–46 SMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSYR 7–42 SMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSYR 11–39 SMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSYR 14–35 SMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSYR 18–32 SMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSYR 21–28 SMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSYR 25–25 SMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSYR 28–21 SMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSYR 32–18 SMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSYR 0–42 SMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSYR 4–39 SMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSYR 7–35 SMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSYR 11–32 SMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSYR 14–28 SMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSYR 18–25 SMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSYR 21–21 SMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSYR 25–18 SMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSYR 28–14 SMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)SYR 0–35 SMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSYR 4–32 SMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSYR 7–28 SMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSYR 11–25 SMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSYR 14–21 SMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSYR 18–18 SMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSYR 21–14 SMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSYR 25–11 SMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalSMU +42SMU +28SMU +14PKSYR +14margin →