CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 9:00 PM ET
#139Away
Missouri State
1-2 · AVR 47.1
24
Final
#24Home
SMU
2-1 · AVR 70.2
34
Forecast win probability
MOST 2.4%97.6% SMU
Projected margin
SMU by 29.2
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
SMU 10 to SMU 49
Win probability
SMU 97.6%
FinalMOST 24 · SMU 34model had +29.2, off by 19.2

Current team profiles

Missouri State
SMU

When Missouri State has the ball

Passing

SMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
MOST offense
#92
SMU defense
#34
EPA comparison
0.13
#92
0.05
#34
Pass EPA

Rushing

SMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
MOST offense
#92
SMU defense
#81
EPA comparison
0.05
#92
0.06
#81
Rush EPA

Drive success

SMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
MOST offense
#108
SMU defense
#37
Success rates
39%
#108
37%
#37
Success rate
More metrics
0.07
#100
0.04
#58
EPA / play
1.22
#78
1.38
#124
Explosiveness
17%
#106
22%
#5
Havoc

When SMU has the ball

Passing

SMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
MOST defense
#122
SMU offense
#10
EPA comparison
0.36
#122
0.51
#10
Pass EPA

Rushing

MOST defense
Higher-ranked profile
MOST defense
#112
SMU offense
#116
EPA comparison
0.15
#112
-0.02
#116
Rush EPA

Drive success

SMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
MOST defense
#134
SMU offense
#26
Success rates
50%
#134
49%
#26
Success rate
More metrics
0.25
#131
0.22
#41
EPA / play
1.07
#13
1.27
#44
Explosiveness
14%
#95
14%
#52
Havoc

Current key players

Missouri State
QBSkyler Locklear
699 yds · 4 TD · 1 INT
73.6126/729
CBJoel Boamah
15 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.9
Coverage
81.2
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
127
Passer rating allowed
54.6
Missed tackles
1
80.950/2969
WRIsaiah Myers
17 rec · 342 yds · 2 TD
80.749/2069
RBRamone Green Jr.
186 yds · 2 TD · 4.8 YPC
76.0152/1044
SJerrick Martin
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.7
Coverage
76.8
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
75.3185/2969
TECash Pomeroy
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Run blocking
77.2
Penalties
0
74.648/1017
Availability reports · 3
  • James Rexroat · TEQues. · 2026-10-09

    Rexroat is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Kennesaw State on Wednesday.

  • Makai Cope · WRQues. · 2026-09-20

    Cope is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Mustangs on Saturday, September 26th.

  • Josh Joyner · RBQues. · 2026-10-09

    Joyner is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Kennesaw State on Wednesday.

SMU
QBTy Hawkins
104 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
90.124/729
SJarvis Lee
22 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
90.9
Coverage
82.3
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
139
Passer rating allowed
75.7
Missed tackles
2
87.318/2969
SJaylen Moses
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
50.1
Coverage
90.0
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
-2
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
1
86.520/2969
TEZack Turner
3 rec · 53 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
68.5
Run blocking
55.8
Penalties
0
78.631/1017
LBAlexander Kilgore
25 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.8
Coverage
69.8
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
16
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
78.3113/1796
LBJamal Anderson
12 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
72.4
Coverage
72.1
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
14
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
76.6148/1796
Availability reports · 8
  • Ira Singleton · DLout · 2026-09-29

    Singleton is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Link Rhodes · RBout · 2026-08-26

    Rhodes has been out of the lineup with a tore ACL injury, and he will be out of commission for the remainder of the season.

  • Yamir Knight · WRQues. · 2026-09-29

    Knight is dealing with un undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston College.

  • Yannick Smith · WRQues. · 2026-09-29

    Smith is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston

  • Nick Reed · KQues. · 2026-10-01

    Reed is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston.

  • Miles Uter · TEQues. · 2026-09-12

    Uter is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be available against Louisville on Saturday, Septembe

  • Christian Rhodes · RBQues. · 2026-09-12

    Rhodes is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be available against Louisville on Saturday, Septem

  • EJ Kelly · RBprobable · 2026-09-17

    Kelly is dealing with an undisclosed injury , but he is likely to play against Louisville on Saturday, 19th September.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MOST
SMU
vs
Offense
73.6
#88 of 138
QB
90.1
#23 of 138
74.7
#75 of 138
RB
70.7
#115 of 138
68.9
#94 of 138
WR
73.9
#44 of 138
74.6
#38 of 138
TE
78.6
#28 of 138
73.1
#27 of 138
OL
66.6
#83 of 138
Defense
66.7
#132 of 138
DL
77.2
#33 of 138
68.4
#118 of 138
LB
71.9
#90 of 138
71.1
#82 of 138
DB
78.1
#9 of 138
Common opponents