AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#125Away
Missouri State
0-0 · AVR 30.2
11p
#18Home
SMU
0-0 · AVR 69.4
45p
MOST 1%99% SMU
Spread
SMU -33.3
Total
56
Moneyline
MOST—SMU—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MOST advantageevenSMU advantage →
MOST throw
MOST WR #45MOST protection #125
SMU +50
MOST run
MOST backs #83
SMU +65
SMU throw
SMU +51
SMU run
SMU +30

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MOST throws
Jmariyae Robinson
vs
Marcellus Barnes Jr.
X · MOST
CB1 · SMU
76.8
80.1
SMU +3
off the edge· hunting Jennings
Addison Nichols
vs
Kellen Lindstrom
LT · SMU
EDGE · MOST
64.4
79.5
MOST +15
when MOST runs
Ramone Green Jr.
vs
Brandon Miyazono
RB · MOST
MLB · SMU
61.8
79.3
SMU +17
when SMU runs
Kendrick Raphael
vs
Jared Lloyd
RB · SMU
MLB · MOST
77.0
62.0
SMU +15
over the middle
Jeron Askren
vs
Tyren Polley
TE · MOST
FS · SMU
59.4
76.6
SMU +17
when SMU throws
Yannick Smith
vs
Dylan Dixson
X · SMU
CB1 · MOST
67.8
53.2
SMU +15

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Missouri State
WRJmariyae Robinson
76.828/777
LBJared Lloyd
62.0256/878
RBRamone Green Jr.
61.893/514
TEJeron Askren
59.458/287
LBCooper Roy
55.4383/878
SDylan Dixson
53.2670/1427
SMU
QBKevin Jennings
82.117/308
CBMarcellus Barnes Jr.
80.190/1427
LBBrandon Miyazono
79.363/878
CBJaelyn Davis-Robinson
78.8103/1427
RBKendrick Raphael
77.032/514
SJimmy Wyrick
77.0124/1427

also out — Braylon Williams (LB), Abel Hoopii (OL), L. Rhodes (RB)

Projected margin

80% between 16 and 51
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSMU +33.395% interval: 9.4 to 57.280% interval: 15.9 to 50.7+16+51MOST wins 1%SMU wins 99%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SMU 46–11 MOSTSMU 42–35 MOST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 46–32 MOST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSMU 49–28 MOST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSMU 53–25 MOST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSMU 56–21 MOST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSMU 60–18 MOST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSMU 63–14 MOST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSMU 67–11 MOST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSMU 70–7 MOST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSMU 39–32 MOST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSMU 42–28 MOST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSMU 46–25 MOST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSMU 49–21 MOST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSMU 53–18 MOST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSMU 56–14 MOST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSMU 60–11 MOST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSMU 63–7 MOST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSMU 67–4 MOST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 35–28 MOST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSMU 39–25 MOST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSMU 42–21 MOST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSMU 46–18 MOST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSMU 49–14 MOST neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesSMU 53–11 MOST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSMU 56–7 MOST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSMU 60–4 MOST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSMU 63–0 MOST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 32–25 MOST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSMU 35–21 MOST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSMU 39–18 MOST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSMU 42–14 MOST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSMU 46–11 MOST neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesSMU 49–7 MOST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSMU 53–4 MOST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSMU 56–0 MOST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)SMU 28–21 MOST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSMU 32–18 MOST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSMU 35–14 MOST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSMU 39–11 MOST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSMU 42–7 MOST neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesSMU 46–4 MOST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSMU 49–0 MOST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)SMU 25–18 MOST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSMU 28–14 MOST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSMU 32–11 MOST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSMU 35–7 MOST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSMU 39–4 MOST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSMU 42–0 MOST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)SMU 21–14 MOST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 25–11 MOST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSMU 28–7 MOST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSMU 32–4 MOST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSMU 35–0 MOST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalSMU +7SMU +21SMU +35SMU +49SMU +63margin →