CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
BC 9.7%90.3% SMU
Projected margin
SMU by 20.2
Projected total
52
80% outcome range
SMU 2 to SMU 41
Win probability
SMU 90.3%
FinalBC 16 · SMU 25model had +20.2, off by 11.2

Current team profiles

Boston College
SMU

When Boston College has the ball

Passing

SMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
BC offense
#114
SMU defense
#34
EPA comparison
0.07
#114
0.05
#34
Pass EPA

Rushing

SMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
BC offense
#100
SMU defense
#81
EPA comparison
0.03
#100
0.06
#81
Rush EPA

Drive success

SMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
BC offense
#114
SMU defense
#37
Success rates
39%
#114
37%
#37
Success rate
More metrics
0.00
#122
0.04
#58
EPA / play
1.25
#57
1.38
#124
Explosiveness
20%
#133
22%
#5
Havoc

When SMU has the ball

Passing

SMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
BC defense
#69
SMU offense
#10
EPA comparison
0.14
#69
0.51
#10
Pass EPA

Rushing

BC defense
Higher-ranked profile
BC defense
#52
SMU offense
#116
EPA comparison
0.01
#52
-0.02
#116
Rush EPA

Drive success

SMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
BC defense
#52
SMU offense
#26
Success rates
39%
#52
49%
#26
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#49
0.22
#41
EPA / play
1.26
#88
1.27
#44
Explosiveness
18%
#31
14%
#52
Havoc

Current key players

Boston College
QBMason McKenzie
967 yds · 5 TD · 5 INT
67.1194/729
RBMekhi Dodd
32 yds · 0 TD · 16.0 YPC
78.0109/1044
LBAnthony Palano
43 tkl · 6.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.1
Coverage
72.3
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
29
Missed tackles
7
Forced fumbles
0
73.8228/1796
WRLandon Wright
5 rec · 91 yds · 0 TD
72.7175/2069
DBMarcelous Townsend
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.0
Coverage
66.0
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
70.9390/2969
DBCameron Martinez
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.4
Coverage
70.9
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
70.6405/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Bo MacCormack III · RBout · 2026-09-19

    MacCormack III is dealing with an shoulder injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Brady Clough · TEout · 2026-10-02

    Clough has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against SMU on Saturday.

  • Reed Swanson · WRprobable · 2026-09-24

    Swanson is managing with a Undisclosed injury , but it is expected to play against the Virginia Tech on Saturday.

SMU
QBTy Hawkins
104 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
90.124/729
SJarvis Lee
22 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
90.9
Coverage
82.3
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
139
Passer rating allowed
75.7
Missed tackles
2
87.318/2969
SJaylen Moses
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
50.1
Coverage
90.0
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
-2
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
1
86.520/2969
TEZack Turner
3 rec · 53 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
68.5
Run blocking
55.8
Penalties
0
78.631/1017
LBAlexander Kilgore
25 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.8
Coverage
69.8
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
16
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
78.3113/1796
LBJamal Anderson
12 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
72.4
Coverage
72.1
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
14
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
76.6148/1796
Availability reports · 8
  • Ira Singleton · DLout · 2026-09-29

    Singleton is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Link Rhodes · RBout · 2026-08-26

    Rhodes has been out of the lineup with a tore ACL injury, and he will be out of commission for the remainder of the season.

  • Yamir Knight · WRQues. · 2026-09-29

    Knight is dealing with un undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston College.

  • Yannick Smith · WRQues. · 2026-09-29

    Smith is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston

  • Nick Reed · KQues. · 2026-10-01

    Reed is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston.

  • Miles Uter · TEQues. · 2026-09-12

    Uter is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be available against Louisville on Saturday, Septembe

  • Christian Rhodes · RBQues. · 2026-09-12

    Rhodes is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be available against Louisville on Saturday, Septem

  • EJ Kelly · RBprobable · 2026-09-17

    Kelly is dealing with an undisclosed injury , but he is likely to play against Louisville on Saturday, 19th September.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

BC
SMU
vs
Offense
67.1
#114 of 138
QB
90.1
#23 of 138
69.8
#120 of 138
RB
70.7
#115 of 138
69.2
#90 of 138
WR
73.9
#44 of 138
52.0
#137 of 138
TE
78.6
#28 of 138
59.6
#133 of 138
OL
66.6
#83 of 138
Defense
69.0
#116 of 138
DL
77.2
#33 of 138
67.1
#125 of 138
LB
71.9
#90 of 138
70.1
#96 of 138
DB
78.1
#9 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Boston College
opponent
SMU
H-7.0
VT#46
+13.8H
H-17.3
FSU#49
+3.0A
A-33.4
ND#1
-13.9A
H+0.4
SYR#68
+14.5A