AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#79Away
Boston College
0-0 · AVR 46.7
19p
#18Home
SMU
0-0 · AVR 69.4
39p
BC 9%91% SMU
Spread
SMU -20.0
Total
58
Moneyline
BC+1042SMU-1042
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BC advantageevenSMU advantage →
BC throw
SMU +37
BC run
SMU +21
SMU throw
SMU +44
SMU run
SMU +13

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when BC runs
Evan Dickens
vs
Brandon Miyazono
RB · BC
MLB · SMU
79.5
79.3
dead even
when SMU runs
Kendrick Raphael
vs
Bodie Kahoun
RB · SMU
MLB · BC
77.0
75.5
dead even
off the edge· pass rush vs protection
Reggie Jackson
vs
Marques White
LT · BC
EDGE · SMU
62.7
83.4
SMU +21
when SMU throws
Yannick Smith
vs
Kameron Howard
X · SMU
CB1 · BC
67.8
75.7
BC +8
over the middle
Kaelan Chudzinski
vs
Tyren Polley
TE · BC
FS · SMU
63.6
76.6
SMU +13
off the edge· hunting Jennings
Addison Nichols
vs
Josiah Griffin
LT · SMU
EDGE · BC
64.4
75.6
BC +11

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Boston College
RBEvan Dickens
79.525/514
DBKameron Howard
75.7148/1427
LBBodie Kahoun
75.5101/878
LBJustin Medlock
69.6151/878
TEKaelan Chudzinski
63.628/287
LBPalaie Faoa
57.4340/878
SMU
QBKevin Jennings
82.117/308
CBMarcellus Barnes Jr.
80.190/1427
LBBrandon Miyazono
79.363/878
CBJaelyn Davis-Robinson
78.8103/1427
RBKendrick Raphael
77.032/514
SJimmy Wyrick
77.0124/1427

also out — Braylon Williams (LB), Abel Hoopii (OL), L. Rhodes (RB)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Boston College
opponent
SMU
home-1.4
Virginia Tech#57
+16.1home
away-29.8
Notre Dame#4
-12.3away
home-11.6
Florida State#30
+2.5away
home+2.2
Syracuse#71
+14.7away

Projected margin

80% between 3 and 37
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSMU +20.095% interval: -3.9 to 43.980% interval: 2.6 to 37.4+3+37BC wins 9%SMU wins 91%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SMU 39–18 BCSMU 35–42 BC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 39–39 BC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSMU 42–35 BC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSMU 46–32 BC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSMU 49–28 BC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSMU 53–25 BC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSMU 56–21 BC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSMU 60–18 BC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSMU 63–14 BC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSMU 32–39 BC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 35–35 BC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSMU 39–32 BC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSMU 42–28 BC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSMU 46–25 BC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSMU 49–21 BC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSMU 53–18 BC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSMU 56–14 BC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSMU 60–11 BC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 28–35 BC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSMU 32–32 BC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSMU 35–28 BC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSMU 39–25 BC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSMU 42–21 BC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSMU 46–18 BC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSMU 49–14 BC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSMU 53–11 BC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSMU 56–7 BC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 25–32 BC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSMU 28–28 BC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSMU 32–25 BC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSMU 35–21 BC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSMU 39–18 BC neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSMU 42–14 BC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSMU 46–11 BC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSMU 49–7 BC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSMU 53–4 BC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 21–28 BC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSMU 25–25 BC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSMU 28–21 BC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSMU 32–18 BC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSMU 35–14 BC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSMU 39–11 BC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSMU 42–7 BC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSMU 46–4 BC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSMU 49–0 BC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 18–25 BC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 21–21 BC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSMU 25–18 BC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSMU 28–14 BC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSMU 32–11 BC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSMU 35–7 BC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSMU 39–4 BC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSMU 42–0 BC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)SMU 14–21 BC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 18–18 BC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSMU 21–14 BC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSMU 25–11 BC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSMU 28–7 BC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSMU 32–4 BC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSMU 35–0 BC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalBC +7SMU +7SMU +21SMU +35SMU +49margin →