AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#46Away
Wake Forest
0-0 · AVR 56.4
21p
#18Home
SMU
0-0 · AVR 69.4
35p
WAKE 17%83% SMU
Spread
SMU -14.2
Total
55
Moneyline
WAKE+501SMU-501
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WAKE advantageevenSMU advantage →
WAKE throw
SMU +38
WAKE run
SMU +45
SMU throw
even
SMU run
WAKE +18

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SMU runs
Kendrick Raphael
vs
Aiden Hall
RB · SMU
MLB · WAKE
77.0
84.0
WAKE +7
off the edge· hunting Jennings
Addison Nichols
vs
Langston Hardy
LT · SMU
EDGE · WAKE
64.4
96.3
WAKE +32
when SMU throws
Yannick Smith
vs
Davaughn Patterson
X · SMU
CB1 · WAKE
67.8
84.7
WAKE +17
when WAKE runs
Ty Clark III
vs
Brandon Miyazono
RB · WAKE
MLB · SMU
59.7
79.3
SMU +20
over the middle
Randy Pittman
vs
Freddie Gillens
TE · SMU
FS · WAKE
70.6
66.4
SMU +4
when WAKE throws
Carlos Hernandez
vs
Marcellus Barnes Jr.
X · WAKE
CB1 · SMU
56.6
80.1
SMU +23

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Wake Forest
DBDavaughn Patterson
84.746/1427
LBAiden Hall
84.028/878
DBDeuce Blades II
73.7167/1427
DBKoredell Bartley
69.7245/1427
LBFrank Cusano
69.3157/878
RBTy Clark III
59.7116/514
SMU
QBKevin Jennings
82.117/308
CBMarcellus Barnes Jr.
80.190/1427
LBBrandon Miyazono
79.363/878
CBJaelyn Davis-Robinson
78.8103/1427
RBKendrick Raphael
77.032/514
SJimmy Wyrick
77.0124/1427

also out — Braylon Williams (LB), Abel Hoopii (OL), L. Rhodes (RB)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Wake Forest
opponent
SMU
away+2.5
California#68
+19.2home
away-8.2
Louisville#28
+3.5away
home+2.4
Virginia#49
+14.1home
home+14.2
Stanford#96
+20.9away

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 32
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSMU +14.295% interval: -9.7 to 38.180% interval: -3.2 to 31.5-3+32WAKE wins 17%SMU wins 83%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SMU 35–21 WAKESMU 32–46 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSMU 35–42 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSMU 39–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSMU 42–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSMU 46–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSMU 49–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSMU 53–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSMU 56–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSMU 60–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSMU 28–42 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 32–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSMU 35–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSMU 39–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSMU 42–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSMU 46–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSMU 49–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSMU 53–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSMU 56–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 25–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 28–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSMU 32–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSMU 35–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSMU 39–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSMU 42–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSMU 46–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSMU 49–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSMU 53–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 21–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 25–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSMU 28–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSMU 32–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSMU 35–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSMU 39–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSMU 42–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSMU 46–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSMU 49–7 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSMU 18–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 21–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSMU 25–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSMU 28–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSMU 32–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSMU 35–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSMU 39–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSMU 42–7 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSMU 46–4 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 14–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 18–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSMU 21–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSMU 25–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSMU 28–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSMU 32–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSMU 35–7 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSMU 39–4 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSMU 42–0 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 11–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 14–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSMU 18–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSMU 21–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSMU 25–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSMU 28–7 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSMU 32–4 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSMU 35–0 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalWAKE +14PKSMU +14SMU +28SMU +42margin →