CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
WAKE 33.9%66.1% SMU
Projected margin
SMU by 6.5
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
WAKE 12 to SMU 25
Win probability
SMU 66.1%

Current team profiles

Wake Forest
SMU

When Wake Forest has the ball

Passing

WAKE offense
Higher-ranked profile
WAKE offense
#15
SMU defense
#34
EPA comparison
0.45
#15
0.05
#34
Pass EPA

Rushing

WAKE offense
Higher-ranked profile
WAKE offense
#30
SMU defense
#81
EPA comparison
0.20
#30
0.06
#81
Rush EPA

Drive success

WAKE offense
Higher-ranked profile
WAKE offense
#34
SMU defense
#37
Success rates
48%
#34
37%
#37
Success rate
More metrics
0.32
#12
0.04
#58
EPA / play
1.28
#37
1.38
#124
Explosiveness
11%
#18
22%
#5
Havoc

When SMU has the ball

Passing

SMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
WAKE defense
#75
SMU offense
#10
EPA comparison
0.16
#75
0.51
#10
Pass EPA

Rushing

WAKE defense
Higher-ranked profile
WAKE defense
#41
SMU offense
#116
EPA comparison
-0.01
#41
-0.02
#116
Rush EPA

Drive success

SMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
WAKE defense
#105
SMU offense
#26
Success rates
44%
#105
49%
#26
Success rate
More metrics
0.08
#78
0.22
#41
EPA / play
1.06
#10
1.27
#44
Explosiveness
14%
#96
14%
#52
Havoc

Current key players

Wake Forest
QBGio Lopez
1377 yds · 10 TD · 1 INT
86.035/729
WRDevin Goldston
1 rec · 51 yds · 0 TD
87.318/2069
DBSomad Eaddy
12 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
81.1
Coverage
84.5
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
11
Yards allowed
57
Passer rating allowed
51.2
Missed tackles
0
85.821/2969
LBVincent Firenze
38 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
90.7
Coverage
70.0
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
16
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
1
84.742/1796
WRCarlos Hernandez
37 rec · 603 yds · 3 TD
83.333/2069
RBDeuce Lawrence
235 yds · 2 TD · 5.0 YPC
79.886/1044
Availability reports · 1
  • Ny Carr · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Carr is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the California on Saturday, September 17th.

SMU
QBTy Hawkins
104 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
90.124/729
SJarvis Lee
22 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
90.9
Coverage
82.3
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
139
Passer rating allowed
75.7
Missed tackles
2
87.318/2969
SJaylen Moses
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
50.1
Coverage
90.0
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
-2
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
1
86.520/2969
TEZack Turner
3 rec · 53 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
68.5
Run blocking
55.8
Penalties
0
78.631/1017
LBAlexander Kilgore
25 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.8
Coverage
69.8
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
16
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
78.3113/1796
LBJamal Anderson
12 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
72.4
Coverage
72.1
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
14
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
76.6148/1796
Availability reports · 8
  • Ira Singleton · DLout · 2026-09-29

    Singleton is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Link Rhodes · RBout · 2026-08-26

    Rhodes has been out of the lineup with a tore ACL injury, and he will be out of commission for the remainder of the season.

  • Yamir Knight · WRQues. · 2026-09-29

    Knight is dealing with un undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston College.

  • Yannick Smith · WRQues. · 2026-09-29

    Smith is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston

  • Nick Reed · KQues. · 2026-10-01

    Reed is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston.

  • Miles Uter · TEQues. · 2026-09-12

    Uter is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be available against Louisville on Saturday, Septembe

  • Christian Rhodes · RBQues. · 2026-09-12

    Rhodes is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be available against Louisville on Saturday, Septem

  • EJ Kelly · RBprobable · 2026-09-17

    Kelly is dealing with an undisclosed injury , but he is likely to play against Louisville on Saturday, 19th September.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

WAKE
SMU
vs
Offense
86.0
#33 of 138
QB
90.1
#23 of 138
73.0
#96 of 138
RB
70.7
#115 of 138
81.1
#6 of 138
WR
73.9
#44 of 138
67.3
#78 of 138
TE
78.6
#28 of 138
68.1
#67 of 138
OL
66.6
#83 of 138
Defense
73.4
#65 of 138
DL
77.2
#33 of 138
72.6
#82 of 138
LB
71.9
#90 of 138
77.0
#16 of 138
DB
78.1
#9 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Wake Forest
opponent
SMU
H+54.0
STAN#106
+16.7A
A+3.0
LOU#27
-10.0A
A+11.4
CAL#90
+20.6H
H+6.2
UVA#50
+10.1H