AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#68Away
California
0-0 · AVR 49.3
24p
#49Home
Virginia
1-0 · AVR 55.7
32p
CAL 30%70% UVA
Spread
UVA -7.6
Total
56
Moneyline
CAL+235UVA-235
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CAL advantageevenUVA advantage →
CAL throw
CAL protection #105
UVA +15
CAL run
CAL line #105CAL backs #48
UVA +41
UVA throw
UVA WR #93CAL coverage #52
UVA +25
UVA run
CAL linebackers #81
UVA +53

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CAL throws
Ian Strong
vs
Jam Jackson
X · CAL
CB1 · UVA
78.7
86.4
UVA +8
when CAL runs
Adam Mohammed
vs
Kam Robinson
RB · CAL
MLB · UVA
69.4
83.5
UVA +14
when UVA runs
Jekail Middlebrook
vs
Tristan Jernigan
RB · UVA
MLB · CAL
70.6
69.7
dead even
over the middle
Dorian Thomas
vs
Kevon Gray
TE · CAL
FS · UVA
63.0
70.7
UVA +8
when UVA throws
Tyson Davis
vs
Cam Sidney
X · UVA
CB1 · CAL
53.4
78.5
CAL +25
off the edge· hunting Sagapolutele
Bastian Swinney
vs
Fisher Camac
LT · CAL
EDGE · UVA
43.6
84.8
UVA +41

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
California
QBJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
79.323/308
WRIan Strong
78.725/777
DBCam Sidney
78.5107/1427
DBIsaiah Crosby
74.0165/1427
DBAiden Manutai
69.9243/1427
LBTristan Jernigan
69.7149/878
Virginia
CBJam Jackson
86.433/1427
LBKam Robinsonquestionable
83.530/878
SEthan Minter
79.199/1427
DBDonavon Platt
77.8118/1427
QBBeau Pribula
72.532/308
RBJekail Middlebrook
70.650/514

also out — Alex Dunn, Bull Richardson (DL), Chase Morrison (DL), Dillon Newton-Short (WR), Ezekiel Larry (DL), Grant Ellinger (OL), Isaiah Reese (LB), Isaiah Robinson (WR) +8 more

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
California
opponent
Virginia
away-11.5
NC State#34
+26.0home
away-2.0
Syracuse#71
+8.1home
away-19.2
SMU#18
-14.1away
home-2.5
Wake Forest#46
-2.4away
home-0.6
Virginia Tech#57
-0.5away

Projected margin

80% between -10 and 25
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUVA +7.695% interval: -16.3 to 31.580% interval: -9.8 to 25-10+25CAL wins 30%UVA wins 70%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UVA 32–25 CALUVA 28–49 CAL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUVA 32–46 CAL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUVA 35–42 CAL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUVA 39–39 CAL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUVA 42–35 CAL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUVA 46–32 CAL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUVA 49–28 CAL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUVA 53–25 CAL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUVA 56–21 CAL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 25–46 CAL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 28–42 CAL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUVA 32–39 CAL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUVA 35–35 CAL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUVA 39–32 CAL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUVA 42–28 CAL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUVA 46–25 CAL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUVA 49–21 CAL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUVA 53–18 CAL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUVA 21–42 CAL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUVA 25–39 CAL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUVA 28–35 CAL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUVA 32–32 CAL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUVA 35–28 CAL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUVA 39–25 CAL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUVA 42–21 CAL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUVA 46–18 CAL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUVA 49–14 CAL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 18–39 CAL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUVA 21–35 CAL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUVA 25–32 CAL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUVA 28–28 CAL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUVA 32–25 CAL neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUVA 35–21 CAL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUVA 39–18 CAL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUVA 42–14 CAL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUVA 46–11 CAL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 14–35 CAL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUVA 18–32 CAL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUVA 21–28 CAL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUVA 25–25 CAL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUVA 28–21 CAL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUVA 32–18 CAL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUVA 35–14 CAL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUVA 39–11 CAL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUVA 42–7 CAL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 11–32 CAL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 14–28 CAL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUVA 18–25 CAL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUVA 21–21 CAL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUVA 25–18 CAL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUVA 28–14 CAL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUVA 32–11 CAL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUVA 35–7 CAL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUVA 39–4 CAL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUVA 7–28 CAL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUVA 11–25 CAL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUVA 14–21 CAL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUVA 18–18 CAL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUVA 21–14 CAL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUVA 25–11 CAL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUVA 28–7 CAL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUVA 32–4 CAL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUVA 35–0 CAL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalCAL +21CAL +7UVA +7UVA +21UVA +35margin →