CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 12:00 AM ET
#90Away
California
3-3 · AVR 56.1
21p
#50Home
Virginia
4-2 · AVR 63.1
34p
Forecast win probability
CAL 20.3%79.7% UVA
Projected margin
UVA by 13.2
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
CAL 5 to UVA 32
Win probability
UVA 79.7%

Current team profiles

California
Virginia

When California has the ball

Passing

UVA defense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL offense
#92
UVA defense
#20
EPA comparison
0.13
#92
0.00
#20
Pass EPA

Rushing

UVA defense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL offense
#123
UVA defense
#84
EPA comparison
-0.07
#123
0.07
#84
Rush EPA

Drive success

UVA defense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL offense
#113
UVA defense
#41
Success rates
39%
#113
37%
#41
Success rate
More metrics
0.01
#119
-0.01
#38
EPA / play
1.28
#42
1.11
#25
Explosiveness
17%
#114
17%
#42
Havoc

When Virginia has the ball

Passing

CAL defense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL defense
#26
UVA offense
#45
EPA comparison
0.01
#26
0.29
#45
Pass EPA

Rushing

UVA offense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL defense
#122
UVA offense
#63
EPA comparison
0.19
#122
0.12
#63
Rush EPA

Drive success

CAL defense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL defense
#36
UVA offense
#62
Success rates
37%
#36
44%
#62
Success rate
More metrics
0.06
#70
0.18
#55
EPA / play
1.40
#128
1.17
#98
Explosiveness
14%
#97
13%
#42
Havoc

Current key players

California
QBDominic Ingrassia
— yds · — TD · — INT
76.3103/729
DBKingston Lopa
27 tkl · 1 PD · 5 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.6
Coverage
90.8
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
71
Passer rating allowed
42.1
Missed tackles
6
85.523/2969
RBAdam Mohammed
336 yds · 3 TD · 4.6 YPC
78.5100/1044
DBCam Sidney
9 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.1
Coverage
77.1
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
37
Passer rating allowed
59.2
Missed tackles
1
76.6142/2969
DBIsaiah Crosby
24 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.7
Coverage
77.2
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
22.2
Missed tackles
3
76.3150/2969
LBJoshua Pierce
6 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.8
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
13
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
71.6301/1796
Availability reports · 6
  • Adam Mohammed · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Mohammed is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is un determined if he will play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sagapolutele is dealing with a head injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Carter Vargas · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Vargas is dealing with a leg injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17t

  • Cole Boscia · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Boscia is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Rico Walker · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Walker is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established to play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Trevor Rogers · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Rogers is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established to play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

Virginia
QBEli Holstein
180 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
85.440/729
LBJustin Rowe
6 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.8
Coverage
94.4
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
94.13/1796
SKeke Adams
6 tkl · 0 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.5
Coverage
91.7
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
1
91.16/2969
TELukas Ungar
2 rec · 15 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
64.0
Run blocking
58.8
Penalties
0
86.010/1017
CBOmillio Agard
10 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.3
Coverage
79.2
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
77.4111/2969
DBPatrick Campbell
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.0
Coverage
73.4
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
73.8241/2969
Availability reports · 7
  • Jason Hammond · DLout · 2026-09-15

    Jason is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Rico Flores Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Flores left previous game due to a undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Peyton Lewis · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Lewis is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Triston Ward · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ward is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Dillon Newton-Short · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Newton-Short is managing a hamstring injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jack Stevens · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Stevens is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Tim Hamann · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hamann is sidelined by a undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

CAL
UVA
vs
Offense
76.3
#77 of 138
QB
85.4
#37 of 138
73.2
#93 of 138
RB
69.8
#122 of 138
66.0
#128 of 138
WR
69.4
#89 of 138
57.9
#132 of 138
TE
86.0
#10 of 138
67.0
#78 of 138
OL
81.1
#2 of 138
Defense
70.3
#102 of 138
DL
77.6
#29 of 138
70.6
#99 of 138
LB
78.8
#31 of 138
77.1
#15 of 138
DB
76.8
#17 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

California
opponent
Virginia
A-10.2
NCSU#63
+26.0H
A-20.6
SMU#39
-10.1A
H-11.4
WAKE#26
-6.2A
H+5.0
VT#46
+1.0A
A+3.0
SYR#68
+3.0H