AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#49Away
Virginia
1-0 · AVR 55.7
27p
#46Home
Wake Forest
0-0 · AVR 56.4
30p
UVA 43%57% WAKE
Spread
WAKE -2.4
Total
57
Moneyline
UVA+131WAKE-131
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UVA advantageevenWAKE advantage →
UVA throw
UVA WR #93
WAKE +21
UVA run
WAKE +11
WAKE throw
UVA +38
WAKE run
UVA +40

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Pribula
Noah Josey
vs
Langston Hardy
LT · UVA
EDGE · WAKE
77.5
96.3
WAKE +19
when UVA runs
Jekail Middlebrook
vs
Aiden Hall
RB · UVA
MLB · WAKE
70.6
84.0
WAKE +13
when WAKE runs
Ty Clark III
vs
Kam Robinson
RB · WAKE
MLB · UVA
59.7
83.5
UVA +24
when WAKE throws
Carlos Hernandez
vs
Jam Jackson
X · WAKE
CB1 · UVA
56.6
86.4
UVA +30
when UVA throws
Tyson Davis
vs
Davaughn Patterson
X · UVA
CB1 · WAKE
53.4
84.7
WAKE +31
over the middle
John Rogers
vs
Freddie Gillens
TE · UVA
FS · WAKE
52.1
66.4
WAKE +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Virginia
CBJam Jackson
86.433/1427
LBKam Robinsonquestionable
83.530/878
SEthan Minter
79.199/1427
DBDonavon Platt
77.8118/1427
QBBeau Pribula
72.532/308
RBJekail Middlebrook
70.650/514

also out — Alex Dunn, Bull Richardson (DL), Chase Morrison (DL), Dillon Newton-Short (WR), Ezekiel Larry (DL), Grant Ellinger (OL), Isaiah Reese (LB), Isaiah Robinson (WR) +8 more

Wake Forest
DBDavaughn Patterson
84.746/1427
LBAiden Hall
84.028/878
DBDeuce Blades II
73.7167/1427
DBKoredell Bartley
69.7245/1427
LBFrank Cusano
69.3157/878
RBTy Clark III
59.7116/514

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Virginia
opponent
Wake Forest
home+26.0
NC State#34
-6.5away
home+7.6
California#68
+2.5away
away-14.1
SMU#18
-14.2away
home+0.6
Duke#39
+0.6home

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWAKE +2.495% interval: -21.5 to 26.380% interval: -14.9 to 19.8-15+20UVA wins 43%WAKE wins 57%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WAKE 28–28 UVAWAKE 25–53 UVA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWAKE 28–49 UVA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWAKE 32–46 UVA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWAKE 35–42 UVA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWAKE 39–39 UVA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWAKE 42–35 UVA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWAKE 46–32 UVA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWAKE 49–28 UVA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWAKE 53–25 UVA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWAKE 21–49 UVA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWAKE 25–46 UVA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWAKE 28–42 UVA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWAKE 32–39 UVA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWAKE 35–35 UVA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWAKE 39–32 UVA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWAKE 42–28 UVA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWAKE 46–25 UVA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWAKE 49–21 UVA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWAKE 18–46 UVA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWAKE 21–42 UVA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWAKE 25–39 UVA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWAKE 28–35 UVA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWAKE 32–32 UVA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWAKE 35–28 UVA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWAKE 39–25 UVA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWAKE 42–21 UVA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWAKE 46–18 UVA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWAKE 14–42 UVA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWAKE 18–39 UVA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWAKE 21–35 UVA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWAKE 25–32 UVA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWAKE 28–28 UVA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWAKE 32–25 UVA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWAKE 35–21 UVA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWAKE 39–18 UVA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWAKE 42–14 UVA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWAKE 11–39 UVA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWAKE 14–35 UVA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWAKE 18–32 UVA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWAKE 21–28 UVA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWAKE 25–25 UVA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWAKE 28–21 UVA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWAKE 32–18 UVA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWAKE 35–14 UVA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWAKE 39–11 UVA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWAKE 7–35 UVA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWAKE 11–32 UVA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWAKE 14–28 UVA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWAKE 18–25 UVA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWAKE 21–21 UVA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWAKE 25–18 UVA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWAKE 28–14 UVA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWAKE 32–11 UVA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWAKE 35–7 UVA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWAKE 4–32 UVA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesWAKE 7–28 UVA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWAKE 11–25 UVA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWAKE 14–21 UVA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWAKE 18–18 UVA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWAKE 21–14 UVA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWAKE 25–11 UVA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWAKE 28–7 UVA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWAKE 32–4 UVA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalUVA +28UVA +14PKWAKE +14WAKE +28margin →