CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 6:00 PM ET
#94Away
Delaware
2-1 · AVR 55.6
3
Final
#39Home
Virginia
2-1 · AVR 66.7
42
Forecast win probability
DEL 12.5%87.5% UVA
Projected margin
UVA by 16.3
Projected total
54
80% outcome range
DEL 3 to UVA 35
Win probability
UVA 87.5%
FinalDEL 3 · UVA 42model had +16.3, off by 22.7

Current team profiles

Delaware
Virginia

When Delaware has the ball

Passing

UVA defense
Higher-ranked profile
DEL offense
#101
UVA defense
#20
EPA comparison
0.11
#101
0.00
#20
Pass EPA

Rushing

UVA defense
Higher-ranked profile
DEL offense
#110
UVA defense
#84
EPA comparison
0.00
#110
0.07
#84
Rush EPA

Drive success

UVA defense
Higher-ranked profile
DEL offense
#124
UVA defense
#41
Success rates
38%
#124
37%
#41
Success rate
More metrics
0.00
#123
-0.01
#38
EPA / play
1.26
#48
1.11
#25
Explosiveness
21%
#136
17%
#42
Havoc

When Virginia has the ball

Passing

UVA offense
Higher-ranked profile
DEL defense
#89
UVA offense
#45
EPA comparison
0.20
#89
0.29
#45
Pass EPA

Rushing

UVA offense
Higher-ranked profile
DEL defense
#68
UVA offense
#63
EPA comparison
0.04
#68
0.12
#63
Rush EPA

Drive success

UVA offense
Higher-ranked profile
DEL defense
#67
UVA offense
#62
Success rates
40%
#67
44%
#62
Success rate
More metrics
0.09
#84
0.18
#55
EPA / play
1.28
#97
1.17
#98
Explosiveness
18%
#36
13%
#42
Havoc

Current key players

Delaware
QBNick Minicucci
838 yds · 5 TD · 3 INT
66.4200/729
LBJalen Bell
13 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
83.8
Coverage
76.7
Pressures
9
Pass-rush snaps
21
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
80.971/1796
WRSean Wilson
21 rec · 304 yds · 3 TD
76.4104/2069
RBKaderris Roberts
86 yds · 1 TD · 4.1 YPC
75.8155/1044
SNoah Jefferson
18 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
75.4
Coverage
69.9
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
35
Passer rating allowed
58.6
Missed tackles
1
73.0277/2969
LBBlake Matthews
29 tkl · 6.0 TFL · 4.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.5
Coverage
61.8
Pressures
14
Pass-rush snaps
54
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
2
71.4311/1796
Availability reports · 4
  • Nick Minicucci · QBout · 2026-10-02

    Minicucci is hampered by a leg injury, and it is not anticipated that he will suit up against Liberty on Friday, October 2nd.

  • Greg Spiller · RBout · 2026-09-13

    Spiller is managing with an undisclosed injury, and has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Brandon Rehmann · WRQues. · 2026-09-27

    Rehmann is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Liberty on Friday, October 2th.

  • Ty Salazer · WRQues. · 2026-09-27

    Salazer is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against Liberty on Friday, October 2th.

Virginia
QBEli Holstein
180 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
85.440/729
LBJustin Rowe
6 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.8
Coverage
94.4
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
94.13/1796
SKeke Adams
6 tkl · 0 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.5
Coverage
91.7
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
1
91.16/2969
TELukas Ungar
2 rec · 15 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
64.0
Run blocking
58.8
Penalties
0
86.010/1017
CBOmillio Agard
10 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.3
Coverage
79.2
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
77.4111/2969
DBPatrick Campbell
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.0
Coverage
73.4
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
73.8241/2969
Availability reports · 7
  • Jason Hammond · DLout · 2026-09-15

    Jason is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Rico Flores Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Flores left previous game due to a undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Peyton Lewis · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Lewis is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Triston Ward · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ward is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Dillon Newton-Short · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Newton-Short is managing a hamstring injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jack Stevens · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Stevens is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Tim Hamann · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hamann is sidelined by a undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

DEL
UVA
vs
Offense
66.4
#115 of 138
QB
85.4
#37 of 138
72.7
#102 of 138
RB
69.8
#122 of 138
72.1
#58 of 138
WR
69.4
#89 of 138
68.8
#72 of 138
TE
86.0
#10 of 138
64.3
#101 of 138
OL
81.1
#2 of 138
Defense
67.8
#125 of 138
DL
77.6
#29 of 138
74.4
#66 of 138
LB
78.8
#31 of 138
69.8
#103 of 138
DB
76.8
#17 of 138
Common opponents