AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#102Away
Delaware
0-0 · AVR 39.0
22p
#49Home
Virginia
1-0 · AVR 55.7
37p
DEL 14%86% UVA
Spread
UVA -15.9
Total
59
Moneyline
DEL+630UVA-630
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← DEL advantageevenUVA advantage →
DEL throw
DEL QB #6DEL protection #64
UVA +13
DEL run
UVA +21
UVA throw
UVA WR #93
UVA +24
UVA run
UVA +14

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when DEL throws
Sean Wilson
vs
Jam Jackson
X · DEL
CB1 · UVA
68.2
86.4
UVA +18
when UVA runs
Jekail Middlebrook
vs
Gavin Moul
RB · UVA
MLB · DEL
70.6
80.0
DEL +9
when DEL runs
Jo Silver
vs
Kam Robinson
RB · DEL
MLB · UVA
66.9
83.5
UVA +17
off the edge· hunting Pribula
Noah Josey
vs
Trace Scott III
LT · UVA
EDGE · DEL
77.5
72.8
UVA +5
off the edge· hunting Minicucci
Steven Demboski
vs
Fisher Camac
LT · DEL
EDGE · UVA
50.6
84.8
UVA +34
over the middle
Elijah Sessoms
vs
Kevon Gray
TE · DEL
FS · UVA
53.5
70.7
UVA +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Delaware
QBNick Minicucci
88.66/308
LBGavin Moul
80.055/878
LBBlake Matthews
68.7165/878
WRSean Wilson
68.264/777
RBJo Silver
66.969/514
SKT Seay
64.1383/1427
Virginia
CBJam Jackson
86.433/1427
LBKam Robinsonquestionable
83.530/878
SEthan Minter
79.199/1427
DBDonavon Platt
77.8118/1427
QBBeau Pribula
72.532/308
RBJekail Middlebrook
70.650/514

also out — Alex Dunn, Bull Richardson (DL), Chase Morrison (DL), Dillon Newton-Short (WR), Ezekiel Larry (DL), Grant Ellinger (OL), Isaiah Reese (LB), Isaiah Robinson (WR) +8 more

Projected margin

80% between -2 and 33
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUVA +15.995% interval: -8 to 39.880% interval: -1.5 to 33.3-1+33DEL wins 14%UVA wins 86%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UVA 35–21 DELUVA 32–46 DEL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUVA 35–42 DEL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUVA 39–39 DEL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUVA 42–35 DEL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUVA 46–32 DEL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUVA 49–28 DEL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUVA 53–25 DEL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUVA 56–21 DEL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUVA 60–18 DEL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUVA 28–42 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 32–39 DEL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUVA 35–35 DEL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUVA 39–32 DEL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUVA 42–28 DEL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUVA 46–25 DEL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUVA 49–21 DEL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUVA 53–18 DEL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUVA 56–14 DEL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 25–39 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 28–35 DEL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUVA 32–32 DEL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUVA 35–28 DEL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUVA 39–25 DEL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUVA 42–21 DEL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUVA 46–18 DEL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUVA 49–14 DEL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUVA 53–11 DEL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUVA 21–35 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 25–32 DEL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUVA 28–28 DEL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUVA 32–25 DEL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUVA 35–21 DEL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUVA 39–18 DEL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUVA 42–14 DEL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUVA 46–11 DEL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUVA 49–7 DEL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUVA 18–32 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 21–28 DEL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUVA 25–25 DEL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUVA 28–21 DEL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUVA 32–18 DEL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUVA 35–14 DEL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUVA 39–11 DEL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUVA 42–7 DEL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUVA 46–4 DEL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 14–28 DEL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUVA 18–25 DEL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUVA 21–21 DEL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUVA 25–18 DEL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUVA 28–14 DEL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUVA 32–11 DEL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUVA 35–7 DEL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUVA 39–4 DEL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUVA 42–0 DEL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUVA 11–25 DEL neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUVA 14–21 DEL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 18–18 DEL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUVA 21–14 DEL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUVA 25–11 DEL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUVA 28–7 DEL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUVA 32–4 DEL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUVA 35–0 DEL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalDEL +14PKUVA +14UVA +28UVA +42margin →