CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET
#30Away
Virginia
3-1 · AVR 68.8
7
Final
#57Home
Florida State
2-2 · AVR 63.8
38
Forecast win probability
UVA 52.0%48.0% FSU
Projected margin
UVA by 0.5
Projected total
53
80% outcome range
UVA 21 to FSU 18
Win probability
UVA 52.0%
FinalUVA 7 · FSU 38model had -0.5, off by 31.5

Current team profiles

Virginia
Florida State

When Virginia has the ball

Passing

UVA offense
Higher-ranked profile
UVA offense
#45
FSU defense
#84
EPA comparison
0.29
#45
0.19
#84
Pass EPA

Rushing

UVA offense
Higher-ranked profile
UVA offense
#63
FSU defense
#112
EPA comparison
0.12
#63
0.15
#112
Rush EPA

Drive success

UVA offense
Higher-ranked profile
UVA offense
#62
FSU defense
#88
Success rates
44%
#62
42%
#88
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#55
0.16
#110
EPA / play
1.17
#98
1.31
#106
Explosiveness
13%
#42
16%
#68
Havoc

When Florida State has the ball

Passing

UVA defense
Higher-ranked profile
UVA defense
#20
FSU offense
#72
EPA comparison
0.00
#20
0.22
#72
Pass EPA

Rushing

FSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
UVA defense
#84
FSU offense
#8
EPA comparison
0.07
#84
0.28
#8
Rush EPA

Drive success

UVA defense
Higher-ranked profile
UVA defense
#41
FSU offense
#57
Success rates
37%
#41
45%
#57
Success rate
More metrics
-0.01
#38
0.22
#40
EPA / play
1.11
#25
1.38
#11
Explosiveness
17%
#42
15%
#74
Havoc

Current key players

Virginia
QBEli Holstein
180 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
85.440/729
LBJustin Rowe
6 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.8
Coverage
94.4
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
94.13/1796
SKeke Adams
6 tkl · 0 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.5
Coverage
91.7
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
1
91.16/2969
TELukas Ungar
2 rec · 15 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
64.0
Run blocking
58.8
Penalties
0
86.010/1017
CBOmillio Agard
10 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.3
Coverage
79.2
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
77.4111/2969
DBPatrick Campbell
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.0
Coverage
73.4
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
73.8241/2969
Availability reports · 7
  • Jason Hammond · DLout · 2026-09-15

    Jason is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Rico Flores Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Flores left previous game due to a undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Peyton Lewis · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Lewis is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Triston Ward · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ward is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Dillon Newton-Short · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Newton-Short is managing a hamstring injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jack Stevens · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Stevens is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Tim Hamann · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hamann is sidelined by a undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

Florida State
QBAshton Daniels
1111 yds · 6 TD · 6 INT
77.794/729
RBOusmane Kromah
477 yds · 5 TD · 5.9 YPC
87.322/1044
LBBlake Nichelson
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.1
Coverage
64.7
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
75.3175/1796
DBAntonio Cromartie Jr.
4 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
62.7
Coverage
74.9
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
74.0234/2969
LBKaron Maycock
4 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
77.4
Coverage
64.8
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
10
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
71.4312/1796
WRJayvan Boggs
13 rec · 257 yds · 1 TD
71.1225/2069
Availability reports · 4
  • Samuel Singleton Jr. · RBout · 2026-09-21

    Singleton is managing a lower body injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Tae'Shaun Gelsey · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Gelsey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Hurricanes on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Devin Carter · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Carter is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Hurricanes on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Gavin Markey · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Markey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Hurricanes on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UVA
FSU
vs
Offense
85.4
#37 of 138
QB
77.7
#71 of 138
69.8
#122 of 138
RB
82.2
#22 of 138
69.4
#89 of 138
WR
68.3
#102 of 138
86.0
#10 of 138
TE
61.0
#112 of 138
81.1
#2 of 138
OL
66.4
#85 of 138
Defense
77.6
#29 of 138
DL
67.7
#127 of 138
78.8
#31 of 138
LB
72.0
#87 of 138
76.8
#17 of 138
DB
68.8
#114 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Virginia
opponent
Florida State
H+26.0
NCSU#63
+13.6H
A-10.1
SMU#39
-3.0H