AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#49Away
Virginia
1-0 · AVR 55.7
25p
#30Home
Florida State
0-0 · AVR 62.6
36p
UVA 23%77% FSU
Spread
FSU -10.7
Total
60
Moneyline
UVA+331FSU-331
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UVA advantageevenFSU advantage →
UVA throw
UVA WR #93
even
UVA run
even
FSU throw
FSU WR #3FSU protection #74
UVA +24
FSU run
UVA +24

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when FSU throws
Duce Robinson
vs
Jam Jackson
X · FSU
CB1 · UVA
87.7
86.4
dead even
off the edge· hunting Sperry
Xavier Chaplin
vs
Fisher Camac
LT · FSU
EDGE · UVA
68.0
84.8
UVA +17
when FSU runs
Quintrevion Wisner
vs
Kam Robinson
RB · FSU
MLB · UVA
68.8
83.5
UVA +15
when UVA runs
Jekail Middlebrook
vs
Blake Nichelson
RB · UVA
MLB · FSU
70.6
79.5
FSU +9
off the edge· hunting Pribula
Noah Josey
vs
Rylan Kennedy
LT · UVA
EDGE · FSU
77.5
67.8
UVA +10
over the middle
Landen Thomas
vs
Kevon Gray
TE · FSU
FS · UVA
59.4
70.7
UVA +11

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Virginia
CBJam Jackson
86.433/1427
LBKam Robinsonquestionable
83.530/878
SEthan Minter
79.199/1427
DBDonavon Platt
77.8118/1427
QBBeau Pribula
72.532/308
RBJekail Middlebrook
70.650/514

also out — Alex Dunn, Bull Richardson (DL), Chase Morrison (DL), Dillon Newton-Short (WR), Ezekiel Larry (DL), Grant Ellinger (OL), Isaiah Reese (LB), Isaiah Robinson (WR) +8 more

Florida State
WRDuce Robinson
87.74/777
WRMicahi Danzy
86.98/777
LBBlake Nichelson
79.560/878
LBChris Jones
73.9113/878
DBNehemiah Chandler
73.6168/1427
DBAshlynd Barker
71.8195/1427

also out — Daniel Lyons, Malachi Marshall (QB), DB Transfer, Karson Hobbs, Devin Carter (WR), FSU freshman wide receiver (WR), Mike Norvell (WR), Dexter Carter Speaks +1 more

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Virginia
opponent
Florida State
home+26.0
NC State#34
+6.8home
away-14.1
SMU#18
-2.5home

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFSU +10.795% interval: -13.2 to 34.680% interval: -6.7 to 28.1-7+28UVA wins 23%FSU wins 77%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FSU 39–25 UVAFSU 35–49 UVA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFSU 39–46 UVA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFSU 42–42 UVA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFSU 46–39 UVA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFSU 49–35 UVA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFSU 53–32 UVA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFSU 56–28 UVA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFSU 60–25 UVA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFSU 63–21 UVA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesFSU 32–46 UVA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFSU 35–42 UVA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFSU 39–39 UVA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFSU 42–35 UVA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFSU 46–32 UVA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFSU 49–28 UVA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFSU 53–25 UVA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFSU 56–21 UVA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFSU 60–18 UVA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFSU 28–42 UVA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFSU 32–39 UVA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFSU 35–35 UVA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFSU 39–32 UVA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFSU 42–28 UVA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFSU 46–25 UVA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFSU 49–21 UVA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFSU 53–18 UVA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFSU 56–14 UVA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFSU 25–39 UVA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFSU 28–35 UVA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFSU 32–32 UVA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFSU 35–28 UVA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFSU 39–25 UVA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFSU 42–21 UVA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFSU 46–18 UVA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFSU 49–14 UVA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFSU 53–11 UVA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFSU 21–35 UVA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFSU 25–32 UVA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFSU 28–28 UVA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFSU 32–25 UVA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFSU 35–21 UVA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFSU 39–18 UVA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFSU 42–14 UVA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFSU 46–11 UVA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFSU 49–7 UVA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFSU 18–32 UVA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFSU 21–28 UVA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFSU 25–25 UVA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFSU 28–21 UVA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFSU 32–18 UVA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFSU 35–14 UVA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFSU 39–11 UVA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFSU 42–7 UVA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFSU 46–4 UVA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFSU 14–28 UVA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFSU 18–25 UVA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFSU 21–21 UVA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFSU 25–18 UVA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFSU 28–14 UVA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFSU 32–11 UVA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFSU 35–7 UVA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFSU 39–4 UVA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFSU 42–0 UVA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes84777063564942totalUVA +14PKFSU +14FSU +28FSU +42margin →