CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 7:30 PM ET · neutral site
#74Away
West Virginia
2-0 · AVR 58.9
38
Final
#24Home
Virginia
2-0 · AVR 71.2
27
Forecast win probability
WVU 27.0%73.0% UVA
Projected margin
UVA by 10.3
Projected total
52
80% outcome range
WVU 9 to UVA 31
Win probability
UVA 73.0%
FinalWVU 38 · UVA 27model had +10.3, off by 21.3

Current team profiles

West Virginia
Virginia

When West Virginia has the ball

Passing

UVA defense
Higher-ranked profile
WVU offense
#82
UVA defense
#20
EPA comparison
0.17
#82
0.00
#20
Pass EPA

Rushing

WVU offense
Higher-ranked profile
WVU offense
#55
UVA defense
#84
EPA comparison
0.14
#55
0.07
#84
Rush EPA

Drive success

UVA defense
Higher-ranked profile
WVU offense
#73
UVA defense
#41
Success rates
43%
#73
37%
#41
Success rate
More metrics
0.14
#71
-0.01
#38
EPA / play
1.30
#32
1.11
#25
Explosiveness
13%
#35
17%
#42
Havoc

When Virginia has the ball

Passing

UVA offense
Higher-ranked profile
WVU defense
#130
UVA offense
#45
EPA comparison
0.44
#130
0.29
#45
Pass EPA

Rushing

UVA offense
Higher-ranked profile
WVU defense
#73
UVA offense
#63
EPA comparison
0.05
#73
0.12
#63
Rush EPA

Drive success

UVA offense
Higher-ranked profile
WVU defense
#122
UVA offense
#62
Success rates
46%
#122
44%
#62
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#120
0.18
#55
EPA / play
1.27
#93
1.17
#98
Explosiveness
16%
#74
13%
#42
Havoc

Current key players

West Virginia
QBMichael Hawkins Jr.
836 yds · 7 TD · 1 INT
90.025/729
WRKedrick Triplett
1 rec · 27 yds · 1 TD
87.815/2069
WRDJ Epps
14 rec · 393 yds · 4 TD
78.172/2069
RBCam Cook
652 yds · 5 TD · 5.5 YPC
76.9137/1044
DBJaCorey Thomas
4 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.4
Coverage
76.6
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
3
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
0
76.9128/2969
DBGeimere Latimer II
21 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.6
Coverage
69.3
Targets allowed
19
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
68
Passer rating allowed
95.9
Missed tackles
6
76.2152/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Martavious Boswell · RBout · 2026-10-10

    Boswell is dealing with a Undisclosed injury, he will miss an extended period.

  • John Neider · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Neider is hampered by an undisclosed injury and he will miss an extended period.

  • Cam Ball · TEout · 2026-10-10

    Ball is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Andre Devine · RBout · 2026-10-10

    Devine is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

Virginia
QBEli Holstein
180 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
85.440/729
LBJustin Rowe
6 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.8
Coverage
94.4
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
94.13/1796
SKeke Adams
6 tkl · 0 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.5
Coverage
91.7
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
1
91.16/2969
TELukas Ungar
2 rec · 15 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
64.0
Run blocking
58.8
Penalties
0
86.010/1017
CBOmillio Agard
10 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.3
Coverage
79.2
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
77.4111/2969
DBPatrick Campbell
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.0
Coverage
73.4
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
73.8241/2969
Availability reports · 7
  • Jason Hammond · DLout · 2026-09-15

    Jason is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Rico Flores Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Flores left previous game due to a undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Peyton Lewis · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Lewis is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Triston Ward · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ward is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Dillon Newton-Short · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Newton-Short is managing a hamstring injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jack Stevens · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Stevens is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Tim Hamann · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hamann is sidelined by a undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

WVU
UVA
vs
Offense
90.0
#24 of 138
QB
85.4
#37 of 138
75.6
#67 of 138
RB
69.8
#122 of 138
79.6
#12 of 138
WR
69.4
#89 of 138
63.9
#98 of 138
TE
86.0
#10 of 138
66.6
#81 of 138
OL
81.1
#2 of 138
Defense
67.5
#129 of 138
DL
77.6
#29 of 138
72.5
#83 of 138
LB
78.8
#31 of 138
74.7
#38 of 138
DB
76.8
#17 of 138
Common opponents