AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 11:30 PM · neutral site
#66Away
West Virginia
0-0 · AVR 50.2
27p
#49Home
Virginia
1-0 · AVR 55.7
31p
WVU 37%63% UVA
Spread
UVA -4.5
Total
58
Moneyline
WVU+169UVA-169
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WVU advantageevenUVA advantage →
WVU throw
UVA +42
WVU run
WVU line #79WVU backs #2
UVA +17
UVA throw
UVA WR #93WVU coverage #117
UVA +11
UVA run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when WVU runs
Cam Cook
vs
Kam Robinson
RB · WVU
MLB · UVA
82.0
83.5
dead even
off the edge· hunting Pribula
Noah Josey
vs
Harper Holloman
LT · UVA
EDGE · WVU
77.5
86.1
WVU +9
when WVU throws
John Neider
vs
Jam Jackson
X · WVU
CB1 · UVA
66.6
86.4
UVA +20
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Cam Griffin
vs
Fisher Camac
LT · WVU
EDGE · UVA
63.6
84.8
UVA +21
when UVA runs
Jekail Middlebrook
vs
Ben Cutter
RB · UVA
MLB · WVU
70.6
75.6
WVU +5
when UVA throws
Tyson Davis
vs
Kamari Wilson
X · UVA
CB1 · WVU
53.4
71.8
WVU +18

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
West Virginia
RBCam Cook
82.017/514
LBBen Cutter
75.6100/878
SKamari Wilson
71.8194/1427
WRJohn Neider
66.675/777
LBMalachi Hood
64.6220/878
QBScotty Fox Jr.
54.898/308

also out — Landon Drum (WR), Lawrence Autry (RB)

Virginia
CBJam Jackson
86.433/1427
LBKam Robinsonquestionable
83.530/878
SEthan Minter
79.199/1427
DBDonavon Platt
77.8118/1427
QBBeau Pribula
72.532/308
RBJekail Middlebrook
70.650/514

also out — Alex Dunn, Bull Richardson (DL), Chase Morrison (DL), Dillon Newton-Short (WR), Ezekiel Larry (DL), Grant Ellinger (OL), Isaiah Reese (LB), Isaiah Robinson (WR) +8 more

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUVA +4.595% interval: -19.4 to 28.480% interval: -12.8 to 21.9-13+22WVU wins 37%UVA wins 63%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UVA 32–25 WVUUVA 28–49 WVU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUVA 32–46 WVU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUVA 35–42 WVU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUVA 39–39 WVU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUVA 42–35 WVU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUVA 46–32 WVU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUVA 49–28 WVU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUVA 53–25 WVU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 56–21 WVU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUVA 25–46 WVU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 28–42 WVU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUVA 32–39 WVU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUVA 35–35 WVU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUVA 39–32 WVU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUVA 42–28 WVU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUVA 46–25 WVU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUVA 49–21 WVU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUVA 53–18 WVU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUVA 21–42 WVU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUVA 25–39 WVU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUVA 28–35 WVU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUVA 32–32 WVU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUVA 35–28 WVU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUVA 39–25 WVU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUVA 42–21 WVU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUVA 46–18 WVU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUVA 49–14 WVU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 18–39 WVU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUVA 21–35 WVU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUVA 25–32 WVU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUVA 28–28 WVU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUVA 32–25 WVU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUVA 35–21 WVU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUVA 39–18 WVU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUVA 42–14 WVU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUVA 46–11 WVU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 14–35 WVU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUVA 18–32 WVU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUVA 21–28 WVU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUVA 25–25 WVU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUVA 28–21 WVU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUVA 32–18 WVU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUVA 35–14 WVU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUVA 39–11 WVU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUVA 42–7 WVU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 11–32 WVU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 14–28 WVU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUVA 18–25 WVU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUVA 21–21 WVU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUVA 25–18 WVU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUVA 28–14 WVU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUVA 32–11 WVU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUVA 35–7 WVU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUVA 39–4 WVU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUVA 7–28 WVU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 11–25 WVU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUVA 14–21 WVU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUVA 18–18 WVU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUVA 21–14 WVU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUVA 25–11 WVU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUVA 28–7 WVU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUVA 32–4 WVU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 35–0 WVU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalWVU +21WVU +7UVA +7UVA +21UVA +35margin →