AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#71Away
Syracuse
0-0 · AVR 48.1
25p
#49Home
Virginia
1-0 · AVR 55.7
33p
SYR 29%71% UVA
Spread
UVA -8.1
Total
59
Moneyline
SYR+250UVA-250
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SYR advantageevenUVA advantage →
SYR throw
SYR QB #29SYR protection #93
UVA +32
SYR run
UVA +66
UVA throw
UVA WR #93
UVA +19
UVA run
UVA +26

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Pribula
Noah Josey
vs
Tunmise Adeleye
LT · UVA
EDGE · SYR
77.5
80.3
dead even
when UVA runs
Jekail Middlebrook
vs
Chris D'Appolonia
RB · UVA
MLB · SYR
70.6
80.0
SYR +9
when SYR throws
Cole Weaver
vs
Jam Jackson
X · SYR
CB1 · UVA
54.3
86.4
UVA +32
when SYR runs
Malachi Coleman
vs
Kam Robinson
RB · SYR
MLB · UVA
42.7
83.5
UVA +41
over the middle
Noah Meyers
vs
Kevon Gray
TE · SYR
FS · UVA
53.0
70.7
UVA +18
when UVA throws
Tyson Davis
vs
Nazir Ward
X · UVA
CB1 · SYR
53.4
68.7
SYR +15

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Syracuse
LBChris D'Appolonia
80.053/878
QBAmari Odom
74.229/308
DBNazir Ward
68.7268/1427
DBJai Eugene Jr.
60.6466/1427
DBChris Peal
60.1477/1427
LBJosh Kubala
55.6378/878
Virginia
CBJam Jackson
86.433/1427
LBKam Robinsonquestionable
83.530/878
SEthan Minter
79.199/1427
DBDonavon Platt
77.8118/1427
QBBeau Pribula
72.532/308
RBJekail Middlebrook
70.650/514

also out — Alex Dunn, Bull Richardson (DL), Chase Morrison (DL), Dillon Newton-Short (WR), Ezekiel Larry (DL), Grant Ellinger (OL), Isaiah Reese (LB), Isaiah Robinson (WR) +8 more

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Syracuse
opponent
Virginia
away-12.0
NC State#34
+26.0home
away-6.3
North Carolina#61
+4.3home
home+2.0
California#68
+7.6home
home-14.7
SMU#18
-14.1away

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUVA +8.195% interval: -15.8 to 3280% interval: -9.3 to 25.5-9+26SYR wins 29%UVA wins 71%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UVA 32–25 SYRUVA 28–49 SYR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUVA 32–46 SYR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUVA 35–42 SYR neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUVA 39–39 SYR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUVA 42–35 SYR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUVA 46–32 SYR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUVA 49–28 SYR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUVA 53–25 SYR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUVA 56–21 SYR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 25–46 SYR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 28–42 SYR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUVA 32–39 SYR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUVA 35–35 SYR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUVA 39–32 SYR neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUVA 42–28 SYR neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUVA 46–25 SYR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUVA 49–21 SYR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUVA 53–18 SYR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUVA 21–42 SYR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUVA 25–39 SYR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUVA 28–35 SYR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUVA 32–32 SYR neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUVA 35–28 SYR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUVA 39–25 SYR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUVA 42–21 SYR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUVA 46–18 SYR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUVA 49–14 SYR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 18–39 SYR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUVA 21–35 SYR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUVA 25–32 SYR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUVA 28–28 SYR neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUVA 32–25 SYR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUVA 35–21 SYR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUVA 39–18 SYR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUVA 42–14 SYR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUVA 46–11 SYR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 14–35 SYR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 18–32 SYR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUVA 21–28 SYR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUVA 25–25 SYR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUVA 28–21 SYR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUVA 32–18 SYR neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUVA 35–14 SYR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUVA 39–11 SYR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUVA 42–7 SYR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 11–32 SYR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 14–28 SYR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUVA 18–25 SYR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUVA 21–21 SYR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUVA 25–18 SYR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUVA 28–14 SYR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUVA 32–11 SYR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUVA 35–7 SYR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUVA 39–4 SYR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUVA 7–28 SYR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUVA 11–25 SYR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 14–21 SYR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUVA 18–18 SYR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUVA 21–14 SYR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUVA 25–11 SYR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUVA 28–7 SYR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUVA 32–4 SYR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUVA 35–0 SYR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalSYR +21SYR +7UVA +7UVA +21UVA +35margin →