CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET
#60Away
North Carolina
3-2 · AVR 61.7
28p
#95Home
UConn
3-3 · AVR 55.3
27p
Forecast win probability
UNC 52.4%47.6% CONN
Projected margin
UNC by 0.8
Projected total
54
80% outcome range
UNC 19 to CONN 18
Win probability
UNC 52.4%

Current team profiles

North Carolina
UConn

When North Carolina has the ball

Passing

UNC offense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC offense
#78
CONN defense
#84
EPA comparison
0.19
#78
0.19
#84
Pass EPA

Rushing

CONN defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC offense
#93
CONN defense
#41
EPA comparison
0.04
#93
-0.01
#41
Rush EPA

Drive success

UNC offense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC offense
#64
CONN defense
#92
Success rates
44%
#64
42%
#92
Success rate
More metrics
0.10
#91
0.08
#76
EPA / play
1.13
#117
1.20
#63
Explosiveness
16%
#104
16%
#63
Havoc

When UConn has the ball

Passing

UNC defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC defense
#32
CONN offense
#38
EPA comparison
0.03
#32
0.33
#38
Pass EPA

Rushing

CONN offense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC defense
#88
CONN offense
#28
EPA comparison
0.08
#88
0.21
#28
Rush EPA

Drive success

CONN offense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC defense
#100
CONN offense
#52
Success rates
43%
#100
45%
#52
Success rate
More metrics
0.01
#47
0.22
#38
EPA / play
0.99
#4
1.40
#7
Explosiveness
13%
#119
13%
#39
Havoc

Current key players

North Carolina
QBMiles O'Neill
22 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
71.8141/729
DBGreg Smith
21 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.1
Coverage
89.6
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
9
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
3
86.619/2969
DBJalon Thompson
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
64.7
Coverage
79.9
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
3
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
80.259/2969
WRZamaurious Robertson
1 rec · 4 yds · 0 TD
78.270/2069
DBAde Willie
1 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
78.6
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
6
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
78.095/2969
WRJordan Shipp
20 rec · 273 yds · 0 TD
77.877/2069
Availability reports · 5
  • Jaxxon Warren · TEout · 2026-08-21

    Warren is managing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Jordan Washington · TEout · 2026-10-10

    Washington is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Jaylen Harvey · DLQues. · 2026-10-10

    Harvey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remain to seen if he will face Duke on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Carnell Warren · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Carnell is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Duke on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Keeyun Chapman · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Chapman is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face against Duke on Saturday, October 17th.

UConn
QBKalieb Osborne
1164 yds · 10 TD · 2 INT
91.012/729
LBHayden Pegg
34 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
90.7
Coverage
83.6
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
15
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
87.024/1796
WRRaymond Liggins III
5 rec · 72 yds · 1 TD
81.345/2069
RBCyncir Bowers
349 yds · 5 TD · 7.4 YPC
80.180/1044
WRKamren Flowers
1 rec · 30 yds · 0 TD
77.778/2069
TEMatt Ragan
5 rec · 56 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
30.8
Run blocking
71.7
Penalties
2
74.152/1017
Availability reports · 2
  • J. Brown · WRout · 2026-10-05

    Brown is bothered by a concussion protocol, and he is without a definitive timetable for return.

  • Jake Merklinger · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Merklinger is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face Minutemen on Friday , October 23rd.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UNC
CONN
vs
Offense
71.8
#96 of 138
QB
91.0
#12 of 138
67.5
#131 of 138
RB
78.8
#42 of 138
72.0
#62 of 138
WR
77.7
#18 of 138
77.2
#33 of 138
TE
74.1
#42 of 138
66.5
#84 of 138
OL
71.7
#40 of 138
Defense
74.8
#55 of 138
DL
71.3
#93 of 138
71.9
#89 of 138
LB
73.2
#78 of 138
77.4
#12 of 138
DB
64.0
#136 of 138
Common opponents