AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 PM
#61Away
North Carolina
1-0 · AVR 50.8
28p
#72Home
UConn
0-0 · AVR 48.0
27p
UNC 52%48% CONN
Spread
UNC -0.7
Total
55
Moneyline
UNC-107CONN+107
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNC advantageevenCONN advantage →
UNC throw
CONN coverage #115CONN pass rush #12
CONN +32
UNC run
CONN linebackers #69
CONN +47
CONN throw
even
CONN run
CONN +30

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Osborne
Ty Chan
vs
Melkart Abou Jaoude
LT · CONN
EDGE · UNC
77.4
87.3
UNC +10
when UNC runs
Demon June
vs
K'Von Sherman
RB · UNC
MLB · CONN
56.8
93.3
CONN +36
when UNC throws
Jordan Shipp
vs
Jayden Davis
X · UNC
CB1 · CONN
56.0
71.1
CONN +15
when CONN throws
Ryder Treadway
vs
Peyton Waters
X · CONN
CB1 · UNC
57.0
69.9
UNC +13
when CONN runs
Kenji Christian
vs
Daniel Anderson
RB · CONN
MLB · UNC
62.7
61.1
dead even
off the edge· hunting O'Neill
Christo Kelly
vs
Esean Carter
LT · UNC
EDGE · CONN
31.8
87.3
CONN +55

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
North Carolina
DBPeyton Waters
69.9242/1427
DBJaiden Patterson
68.6271/1427
DBGreg Smith
68.2275/1427
TEJelani Thurman
61.143/287
LBDaniel Anderson
61.1267/878
RBDemon June
56.8146/514

also out — J. Warren (TE)

UConn
LBK'Von Sherman
93.35/878
DBJayden Davis
71.1209/1427
RBKenji Christian
62.788/514
WRRyder Treadway
57.0143/777
QBKalieb Osborne
56.585/308
WRShamar Porter
55.1174/777

Projected margin

80% between -18 and 17
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNC +0.795% interval: -24.6 to 23.280% interval: -18 to 16.7-18+17UNC wins 52%CONN wins 48%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CONN 28–28 UNCCONN 25–53 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCONN 28–49 UNC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCONN 32–46 UNC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCONN 35–42 UNC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCONN 39–39 UNC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCONN 42–35 UNC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCONN 46–32 UNC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCONN 49–28 UNC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCONN 53–25 UNC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCONN 21–49 UNC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCONN 25–46 UNC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCONN 28–42 UNC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCONN 32–39 UNC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCONN 35–35 UNC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCONN 39–32 UNC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCONN 42–28 UNC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCONN 46–25 UNC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCONN 49–21 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCONN 18–46 UNC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCONN 21–42 UNC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCONN 25–39 UNC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCONN 28–35 UNC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCONN 32–32 UNC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCONN 35–28 UNC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCONN 39–25 UNC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCONN 42–21 UNC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCONN 46–18 UNC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCONN 14–42 UNC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCONN 18–39 UNC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCONN 21–35 UNC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCONN 25–32 UNC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCONN 28–28 UNC neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesCONN 32–25 UNC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCONN 35–21 UNC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCONN 39–18 UNC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCONN 42–14 UNC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCONN 11–39 UNC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCONN 14–35 UNC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCONN 18–32 UNC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCONN 21–28 UNC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCONN 25–25 UNC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCONN 28–21 UNC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCONN 32–18 UNC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCONN 35–14 UNC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCONN 39–11 UNC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCONN 7–35 UNC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCONN 11–32 UNC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCONN 14–28 UNC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCONN 18–25 UNC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCONN 21–21 UNC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCONN 25–18 UNC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCONN 28–14 UNC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCONN 32–11 UNC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCONN 35–7 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCONN 4–32 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCONN 7–28 UNC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCONN 11–25 UNC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCONN 14–21 UNC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCONN 18–18 UNC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCONN 21–14 UNC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCONN 25–11 UNC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCONN 28–7 UNC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCONN 32–4 UNC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalUNC +28UNC +14PKCONN +14CONN +28margin →