AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#71Away
Syracuse
0-0 · AVR 48.1
24p
#61Home
North Carolina
1-0 · AVR 50.8
30p
SYR 34%66% UNC
Spread
UNC -6.3
Total
54
Moneyline
SYR+194UNC-194
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SYR advantageevenUNC advantage →
SYR throw
SYR QB #29SYR protection #93
UNC +5
SYR run
UNC +24
UNC throw
SYR +20
UNC run
SYR +22

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UNC runs
Demon June
vs
Chris D'Appolonia
RB · UNC
MLB · SYR
56.8
80.0
SYR +23
when UNC throws
Jordan Shipp
vs
Nazir Ward
X · UNC
CB1 · SYR
56.0
68.7
SYR +13
when SYR throws
Cole Weaver
vs
Peyton Waters
X · SYR
CB1 · UNC
54.3
69.9
UNC +16
off the edge· hunting Odom
Joe Cruz
vs
Melkart Abou Jaoude
LT · SYR
EDGE · UNC
34.8
87.3
UNC +52
over the middle
Noah Meyers
vs
Kaleb Cost
TE · SYR
FS · UNC
53.0
67.3
UNC +14
over the middle
Jelani Thurman
vs
Demetres Samuel Jr.
TE · UNC
FS · SYR
61.1
55.5
UNC +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Syracuse
LBChris D'Appolonia
80.053/878
QBAmari Odom
74.229/308
DBNazir Ward
68.7268/1427
DBJai Eugene Jr.
60.6466/1427
DBChris Peal
60.1477/1427
LBJosh Kubala
55.6378/878
North Carolina
DBPeyton Waters
69.9242/1427
DBJaiden Patterson
68.6271/1427
DBGreg Smith
68.2275/1427
TEJelani Thurman
61.143/287
LBDaniel Anderson
61.1267/878
RBDemon June
56.8146/514

also out — J. Warren (TE)

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Syracuse
opponent
North Carolina
away-12.0
NC State#34
-3.2home
home-24.5
Notre Dame#4
-20.7home
away-3.1
UConn#72
+0.7away
away-8.1
Virginia#49
-4.3away
away-12.1
Pittsburgh#33
-8.3away
home-8.7
Louisville#28
-4.9home
home-11.5
Clemson#27
-12.7away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNC +6.395% interval: -17.6 to 30.280% interval: -11.1 to 23.7-11+24SYR wins 34%UNC wins 66%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNC 32–25 SYRUNC 28–49 SYR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNC 32–46 SYR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNC 35–42 SYR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNC 39–39 SYR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNC 42–35 SYR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNC 46–32 SYR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNC 49–28 SYR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNC 53–25 SYR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNC 56–21 SYR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNC 25–46 SYR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNC 28–42 SYR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNC 32–39 SYR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNC 35–35 SYR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNC 39–32 SYR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNC 42–28 SYR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNC 46–25 SYR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNC 49–21 SYR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNC 53–18 SYR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNC 21–42 SYR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNC 25–39 SYR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNC 28–35 SYR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNC 32–32 SYR neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNC 35–28 SYR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNC 39–25 SYR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNC 42–21 SYR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNC 46–18 SYR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNC 49–14 SYR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNC 18–39 SYR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNC 21–35 SYR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNC 25–32 SYR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNC 28–28 SYR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNC 32–25 SYR neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUNC 35–21 SYR neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNC 39–18 SYR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNC 42–14 SYR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNC 46–11 SYR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNC 14–35 SYR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNC 18–32 SYR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNC 21–28 SYR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNC 25–25 SYR neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNC 28–21 SYR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNC 32–18 SYR neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNC 35–14 SYR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNC 39–11 SYR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNC 42–7 SYR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNC 11–32 SYR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNC 14–28 SYR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNC 18–25 SYR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNC 21–21 SYR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNC 25–18 SYR neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNC 28–14 SYR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNC 32–11 SYR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNC 35–7 SYR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNC 39–4 SYR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNC 7–28 SYR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNC 11–25 SYR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNC 14–21 SYR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNC 18–18 SYR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNC 21–14 SYR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNC 25–11 SYR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNC 28–7 SYR neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNC 32–4 SYR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNC 35–0 SYR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalSYR +21SYR +7UNC +7UNC +21UNC +35margin →