Passing
PITT defense
Higher-ranked profile
- UNC offense
- #78
- PITT defense
- #71
EPA comparison
0.19
#78
0.15
#71
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 12:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
UNC 32.2%67.8% PITT
- Projected margin
- PITT by 6.9
- Projected total
- 45
- 80% outcome range
- UNC 13 to PITT 27
- Win probability
- PITT 67.8%
FinalUNC 21 · PITT 17model had +6.9, off by 10.9
Current team profiles
North CarolinaPittsburghWhen North Carolina has the ball
Rushing
PITT defense
Higher-ranked profile
- UNC offense
- #93
- PITT defense
- #2
EPA comparison
0.04
#93
-0.23
#2
Rush EPA
Drive success
PITT defense
Higher-ranked profile
- UNC offense
- #64
- PITT defense
- #6
Success rates
44%
#64
32%
#6
Success rate
More metrics
0.10
#91
-0.06
#21
EPA / play
1.13
#117
1.41
#130
Explosiveness
16%
#104
18%
#34
Havoc
When Pittsburgh has the ball
Passing
UNC defense
Higher-ranked profile
- UNC defense
- #32
- PITT offense
- #38
EPA comparison
0.03
#32
0.33
#38
Pass EPA
Rushing
UNC defense
Higher-ranked profile
- UNC defense
- #88
- PITT offense
- #93
EPA comparison
0.08
#88
0.04
#93
Rush EPA
Drive success
PITT offense
Higher-ranked profile
- UNC defense
- #100
- PITT offense
- #50
Success rates
43%
#100
45%
#50
Success rate
More metrics
0.01
#47
0.18
#57
EPA / play
0.99
#4
1.23
#74
Explosiveness
13%
#119
11%
#23
Havoc
Current key players
North CarolinaQBMiles O'Neill
22 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
71.8141/729
DBGreg Smith
21 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 68.1
- Coverage
- 89.6
- Targets allowed
- 5
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 9
- Passer rating allowed
- 0.0
- Missed tackles
- 3
86.619/2969
DBJalon Thompson
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 64.7
- Coverage
- 79.9
- Targets allowed
- 2
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 3
- Passer rating allowed
- 56.3
- Missed tackles
- 0
80.259/2969
WRZamaurious Robertson
1 rec · 4 yds · 0 TD
78.270/2069
DBAde Willie
1 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 60.0
- Coverage
- 78.6
- Targets allowed
- 2
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 6
- Passer rating allowed
- 56.3
- Missed tackles
- 0
78.095/2969
WRJordan Shipp
20 rec · 273 yds · 0 TD
77.877/2069
Availability reports · 5
- Jaxxon Warren · TEout · 2026-08-21
Warren is managing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Jordan Washington · TEout · 2026-10-10
Washington is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Jaylen Harvey · DLQues. · 2026-10-10
Harvey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remain to seen if he will face Duke on Saturday, October 17th.
- Carnell Warren · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Carnell is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Duke on Saturday, October 17th.
- Keeyun Chapman · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Chapman is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face against Duke on Saturday, October 17th.
PittsburghQBMason Heintschel
1304 yds · 14 TD · 1 INT
82.460/729
LBJustin Thompson
4 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 87.2
- Coverage
- 71.3
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 1
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
86.729/1796
WRBryan Hamilton
1 rec · 36 yds · 1 TD
81.943/2069
DBRashan Murray
5 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 69.3
- Coverage
- 82.4
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 19
- Passer rating allowed
- 10.7
- Missed tackles
- 0
81.843/2969
WRTyreek Robinson
5 rec · 78 yds · 1 TD
80.455/2069
DBShawn Lee Jr.
15 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 76.2
- Coverage
- 79.1
- Targets allowed
- 16
- Rec allowed
- 10
- Yards allowed
- 89
- Passer rating allowed
- 51.3
- Missed tackles
- 4
80.062/2969
Availability reports · 4
- Malik Knight · WRout · 2026-09-26
Knight is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.
- Mason Heintschel · QBQues. · 2026-10-10
Heintschel exited the game with a leg injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against the Boston College on Saturday, Octo
- Elijah Lagg · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Lagg is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will play against Boston College on Saturday, October 17th.
- Max Hunt · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Hunt is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will play against Boston College on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
UNCNorth Carolina
PITTPittsburgh
vs
Offense
71.8
#96 of 138
QB
Quarterback
82.4
#51 of 138
67.5
#131 of 138
RB
Running backs
74.1
#81 of 138
72.0
#62 of 138
WR
Receivers
77.6
#20 of 138
77.2
#33 of 138
TE
Tight ends
70.8
#61 of 138
66.5
#84 of 138
OL
Offensive line
66.7
#80 of 138
Defense
74.8
#55 of 138
DL
Defensive line
84.2
#2 of 138
71.9
#89 of 138
LB
Linebackers
78.8
#29 of 138
77.4
#12 of 138
DB
Secondary
75.7
#26 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
North Carolina
opponent
Pittsburgh
Hhome+6.4
SYRSyracuse#68+14.0Hhome
Hhome-19.1
MIAMiami#4-16.1Aaway
Hhome-4.5
LOULouisville#27-1.5Aaway