AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#61Away
North Carolina
1-0 · AVR 50.8
23p
#33Home
Pittsburgh
0-0 · AVR 60.7
31p
UNC 28%72% PITT
Spread
PITT -8.3
Total
54
Moneyline
UNC+256PITT-256
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNC advantageevenPITT advantage →
UNC throw
PITT pass rush #8
PITT +47
UNC run
PITT +66
PITT throw
PITT QB #26PITT protection #78
even
PITT run
PITT backs #32
PITT +18

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UNC runs
Demon June
vs
Braylan Lovelace
RB · UNC
MLB · PITT
56.8
89.0
PITT +32
when UNC throws
Jordan Shipp
vs
Shawn Lee Jr.
X · UNC
CB1 · PITT
56.0
84.7
PITT +29
when PITT runs
Ja'Kyrian Turner
vs
Daniel Anderson
RB · PITT
MLB · UNC
73.8
61.1
PITT +13
off the edge· hunting Heintschel
Ryan Baer
vs
Melkart Abou Jaoude
LT · PITT
EDGE · UNC
45.5
87.3
UNC +42
when PITT throws
Bryce Yates
vs
Peyton Waters
X · PITT
CB1 · UNC
55.6
69.9
UNC +14
off the edge· hunting O'Neill
Christo Kelly
vs
Jimmy Scott
LT · UNC
EDGE · PITT
31.8
88.3
PITT +56

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
North Carolina
DBPeyton Waters
69.9242/1427
DBJaiden Patterson
68.6271/1427
DBGreg Smith
68.2275/1427
TEJelani Thurman
61.143/287
LBDaniel Anderson
61.1267/878
RBDemon June
56.8146/514

also out — J. Warren (TE)

Pittsburgh
LBBraylan Lovelace
89.012/878
DBShawn Lee Jr.
84.748/1427
LBDeMarco Ward
79.067/878
QBMason Heintschel
77.426/308
DBCruce Brookins
76.7130/1427
RBJa'Kyrian Turner
73.840/514

also out — Keith Gouveia (OL)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
North Carolina
opponent
Pittsburgh
home+6.3
Syracuse#71
+12.1home
home-15.1
Miami#6
-14.2away
home-4.9
Louisville#28
-4.1away

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKPITT +8.395% interval: -15.6 to 32.280% interval: -9.1 to 25.7-9+26UNC wins 28%PITT wins 72%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ PITT 32–25 UNCPITT 28–49 UNC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPITT 32–46 UNC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPITT 35–42 UNC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPITT 39–39 UNC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPITT 42–35 UNC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPITT 46–32 UNC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPITT 49–28 UNC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPITT 53–25 UNC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPITT 56–21 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 25–46 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 28–42 UNC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPITT 32–39 UNC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPITT 35–35 UNC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPITT 39–32 UNC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPITT 42–28 UNC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPITT 46–25 UNC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPITT 49–21 UNC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPITT 53–18 UNC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPITT 21–42 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 25–39 UNC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPITT 28–35 UNC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPITT 32–32 UNC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPITT 35–28 UNC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPITT 39–25 UNC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPITT 42–21 UNC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPITT 46–18 UNC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPITT 49–14 UNC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPITT 18–39 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 21–35 UNC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPITT 25–32 UNC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPITT 28–28 UNC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPITT 32–25 UNC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPITT 35–21 UNC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPITT 39–18 UNC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPITT 42–14 UNC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPITT 46–11 UNC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPITT 14–35 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 18–32 UNC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPITT 21–28 UNC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPITT 25–25 UNC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPITT 28–21 UNC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPITT 32–18 UNC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesPITT 35–14 UNC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPITT 39–11 UNC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPITT 42–7 UNC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPITT 11–32 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 14–28 UNC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPITT 18–25 UNC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPITT 21–21 UNC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPITT 25–18 UNC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPITT 28–14 UNC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPITT 32–11 UNC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPITT 35–7 UNC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPITT 39–4 UNC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPITT 7–28 UNC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPITT 11–25 UNC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPITT 14–21 UNC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPITT 18–18 UNC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPITT 21–14 UNC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPITT 25–11 UNC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPITT 28–7 UNC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPITT 32–4 UNC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPITT 35–0 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalUNC +21UNC +7PITT +7PITT +21PITT +35margin →