Passing
No comparison
- ETSU offense
- —
- UNC defense
- #32
EPA comparison
—
0.03
#32
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
ETSU 1.1%98.9% UNC
- Projected margin
- UNC by 39.1
- Projected total
- 53
- 80% outcome range
- UNC 21 to UNC 59
- Win probability
- UNC 98.9%
FinalETSU 3 · UNC 35model had +39.1, off by 7.1
Current team profiles
East Tennessee State
North CarolinaWhen East Tennessee State has the ball
Rushing
No comparison
- ETSU offense
- —
- UNC defense
- #88
EPA comparison
—
0.08
#88
Rush EPA
Drive success
No comparison
- ETSU offense
- #33
- UNC defense
- #100
Success rates
46%
#33
43%
#100
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#25
0.01
#47
EPA / play
0.22
#30
0.99
#4
Explosiveness
—
13%
#119
Havoc
When North Carolina has the ball
Passing
No comparison
- ETSU defense
- —
- UNC offense
- #78
EPA comparison
—
0.19
#78
Pass EPA
Rushing
No comparison
- ETSU defense
- —
- UNC offense
- #93
EPA comparison
—
0.04
#93
Rush EPA
Drive success
No comparison
- ETSU defense
- #52
- UNC offense
- #64
Success rates
43%
#52
44%
#64
Success rate
More metrics
0.12
#65
0.10
#91
EPA / play
0.21
#77
1.13
#117
Explosiveness
—
16%
#104
Havoc
Current key players
East Tennessee StateQBMason Mims
1397 yds · 9 TD · 3 INT
78.748/370
KBrock Winstead
0 punts · 0.0 avg
81.25/416
RBTJ Peyton
506 yds · 5 TD · 5.8 YPC
80.927/631
DBMike Jenkins
32 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 82.8
- Coverage
- 76.8
- Targets allowed
- 12
- Rec allowed
- 8
- Yards allowed
- 134
- Passer rating allowed
- 97.2
- Missed tackles
- 2
80.242/1765
QBJadyn Davis
86 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
77.653/370
KEwan Johnson
5/7 FG · 0%
77.119/416
North CarolinaQBMiles O'Neill
22 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
71.8141/729
DBGreg Smith
21 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 68.1
- Coverage
- 89.6
- Targets allowed
- 5
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 9
- Passer rating allowed
- 0.0
- Missed tackles
- 3
86.619/2969
DBJalon Thompson
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 64.7
- Coverage
- 79.9
- Targets allowed
- 2
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 3
- Passer rating allowed
- 56.3
- Missed tackles
- 0
80.259/2969
WRZamaurious Robertson
1 rec · 4 yds · 0 TD
78.270/2069
DBAde Willie
1 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 60.0
- Coverage
- 78.6
- Targets allowed
- 2
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 6
- Passer rating allowed
- 56.3
- Missed tackles
- 0
78.095/2969
WRJordan Shipp
20 rec · 273 yds · 0 TD
77.877/2069
Availability reports · 5
- Jaxxon Warren · TEout · 2026-08-21
Warren is managing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Jordan Washington · TEout · 2026-10-10
Washington is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Jaylen Harvey · DLQues. · 2026-10-10
Harvey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remain to seen if he will face Duke on Saturday, October 17th.
- Carnell Warren · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Carnell is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Duke on Saturday, October 17th.
- Keeyun Chapman · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Chapman is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face against Duke on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
ETSUEast Tennessee State
UNCNorth Carolina
vs
Offense
78.7
#40 of 125
QB
Quarterback
71.8
#96 of 138
76.1
#29 of 126
RB
Running backs
67.5
#131 of 138
69.9
#57 of 126
WR
Receivers
72.0
#62 of 138
76.7
#13 of 124
TE
Tight ends
77.2
#33 of 138
68.4
#29 of 125
OL
Offensive line
66.5
#84 of 138
Defense
70.3
#69 of 126
DL
Defensive line
74.8
#55 of 138
70.6
#70 of 126
LB
Linebackers
71.9
#89 of 138
71.1
#67 of 126
DB
Secondary
77.4
#12 of 138