AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 4:00 PM
Away
East Tennessee State
—
13p
#61Home
North Carolina
1-0 · AVR 50.8
41p
ETSU 2%98% UNC
Spread
UNC -28.0
Total
54
Moneyline
ETSU—UNC—
Margin σ
14.1

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
North Carolina
DBPeyton Waters
69.9242/1427
DBJaiden Patterson
68.6271/1427
DBGreg Smith
68.2275/1427
TEJelani Thurman
61.143/287
LBDaniel Anderson
61.1267/878
RBDemon June
56.8146/514

also out — J. Warren (TE)

Projected margin

80% between 11 and 45
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNC +28.095% interval: 5 to 5180% interval: 11.3 to 44.7+11+45ETSU wins 2%UNC wins 98%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNC 42–14 ETSUUNC 39–39 ETSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNC 42–35 ETSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNC 46–32 ETSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNC 49–28 ETSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNC 53–25 ETSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNC 56–21 ETSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNC 60–18 ETSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNC 63–14 ETSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNC 67–11 ETSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNC 35–35 ETSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNC 39–32 ETSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNC 42–28 ETSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNC 46–25 ETSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNC 49–21 ETSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNC 53–18 ETSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNC 56–14 ETSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNC 60–11 ETSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNC 63–7 ETSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNC 32–32 ETSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNC 35–28 ETSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNC 39–25 ETSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNC 42–21 ETSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNC 46–18 ETSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUNC 49–14 ETSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNC 53–11 ETSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNC 56–7 ETSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNC 60–4 ETSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNC 28–28 ETSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNC 32–25 ETSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNC 35–21 ETSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNC 39–18 ETSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNC 42–14 ETSU neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesUNC 46–11 ETSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNC 49–7 ETSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNC 53–4 ETSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNC 56–0 ETSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNC 25–25 ETSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNC 28–21 ETSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNC 32–18 ETSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNC 35–14 ETSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNC 39–11 ETSU neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesUNC 42–7 ETSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNC 46–4 ETSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNC 49–0 ETSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)UNC 21–21 ETSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNC 25–18 ETSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNC 28–14 ETSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNC 32–11 ETSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNC 35–7 ETSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNC 39–4 ETSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNC 42–0 ETSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)UNC 18–18 ETSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNC 21–14 ETSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNC 25–11 ETSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNC 28–7 ETSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNC 32–4 ETSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNC 35–0 ETSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPKUNC +14UNC +28UNC +42UNC +56margin →