AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 4:00 PM
#61Away
North Carolina
1-0 · AVR 50.8
19p
#27Home
Clemson
0-0 · AVR 65.6
32p
UNC 20%80% CLEM
Spread
CLEM -12.7
Total
51
Moneyline
UNC+412CLEM-412
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNC advantageevenCLEM advantage →
UNC throw
CLEM +70
UNC run
CLEM +56
CLEM throw
CLEM QB #108CLEM WR #31
UNC +7
CLEM run
CLEM +27

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Denson
Dietrick Pennington
vs
Melkart Abou Jaoude
LT · CLEM
EDGE · UNC
70.7
87.3
UNC +17
when UNC throws
Jordan Shipp
vs
Ashton Hampton
X · UNC
CB1 · CLEM
56.0
87.1
CLEM +31
when CLEM throws
T.J. Moore
vs
Peyton Waters
X · CLEM
CB1 · UNC
71.6
69.9
dead even
when UNC runs
Demon June
vs
Sammy Brown
RB · UNC
MLB · CLEM
56.8
80.8
CLEM +24
over the middle
Jelani Thurman
vs
Branden Strozier
TE · UNC
FS · CLEM
61.1
76.1
CLEM +15
off the edge· hunting O'Neill
Christo Kelly
vs
Will Heldt
LT · UNC
EDGE · CLEM
31.8
102.2
CLEM +70

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
North Carolina
DBPeyton Waters
69.9242/1427
DBJaiden Patterson
68.6271/1427
DBGreg Smith
68.2275/1427
TEJelani Thurman
61.143/287
LBDaniel Anderson
61.1267/878
RBDemon June
56.8146/514

also out — J. Warren (TE)

Clemson
CBAshton Hampton
87.127/1427
SCorey Myrick
84.747/1427
SJerome Carter III
81.873/1427
LBSammy Brown
80.848/878
WRT.J. Moore
71.643/777
RBChris Johnson Jr.
68.068/514

also out — Clemson defensive tackle (DL), Former Clemson corner (CB), P. Streko (RB), Clemson, Clemson defensive back (DB), Clemson freshman standout, Clemson player, Clemson safety (S) +10 more

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
North Carolina
opponent
Clemson
away-6.2
Duke#39
+4.0away
home-15.1
Miami#6
-4.9home
home+6.3
Syracuse#71
+11.5away

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCLEM +12.795% interval: -11.2 to 36.680% interval: -4.7 to 30.1-5+30UNC wins 20%CLEM wins 80%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CLEM 32–18 UNCCLEM 28–42 UNC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCLEM 32–39 UNC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCLEM 35–35 UNC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCLEM 39–32 UNC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCLEM 42–28 UNC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCLEM 46–25 UNC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCLEM 49–21 UNC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCLEM 53–18 UNC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCLEM 56–14 UNC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCLEM 25–39 UNC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLEM 28–35 UNC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCLEM 32–32 UNC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCLEM 35–28 UNC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCLEM 39–25 UNC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCLEM 42–21 UNC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCLEM 46–18 UNC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCLEM 49–14 UNC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCLEM 53–11 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCLEM 21–35 UNC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLEM 25–32 UNC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCLEM 28–28 UNC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCLEM 32–25 UNC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCLEM 35–21 UNC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCLEM 39–18 UNC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCLEM 42–14 UNC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCLEM 46–11 UNC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCLEM 49–7 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCLEM 18–32 UNC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLEM 21–28 UNC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCLEM 25–25 UNC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCLEM 28–21 UNC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCLEM 32–18 UNC neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesCLEM 35–14 UNC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCLEM 39–11 UNC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCLEM 42–7 UNC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCLEM 46–4 UNC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCLEM 14–28 UNC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLEM 18–25 UNC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCLEM 21–21 UNC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCLEM 25–18 UNC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCLEM 28–14 UNC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCLEM 32–11 UNC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCLEM 35–7 UNC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCLEM 39–4 UNC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCLEM 42–0 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCLEM 11–25 UNC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCLEM 14–21 UNC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCLEM 18–18 UNC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCLEM 21–14 UNC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCLEM 25–11 UNC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCLEM 28–7 UNC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCLEM 32–4 UNC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCLEM 35–0 UNC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)CLEM 7–21 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCLEM 11–18 UNC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCLEM 14–14 UNC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCLEM 18–11 UNC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCLEM 21–7 UNC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCLEM 25–4 UNC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCLEM 28–0 UNC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalUNC +14PKCLEM +14CLEM +28CLEM +42margin →