CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 12:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
UNC 46.6%53.4% CLEM
Projected margin
CLEM by 1.5
Projected total
42
80% outcome range
UNC 17 to CLEM 21
Win probability
CLEM 53.4%
FinalUNC 20 · CLEM 28model had +1.5, off by 6.5

Current team profiles

North Carolina
Clemson

When North Carolina has the ball

Passing

CLEM defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC offense
#78
CLEM defense
#26
EPA comparison
0.19
#78
0.01
#26
Pass EPA

Rushing

UNC offense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC offense
#93
CLEM defense
#128
EPA comparison
0.04
#93
0.21
#128
Rush EPA

Drive success

UNC offense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC offense
#64
CLEM defense
#98
Success rates
44%
#64
43%
#98
Success rate
More metrics
0.10
#91
0.07
#74
EPA / play
1.13
#117
1.18
#51
Explosiveness
16%
#104
16%
#74
Havoc

When Clemson has the ball

Passing

UNC defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC defense
#32
CLEM offense
#123
EPA comparison
0.03
#32
0.00
#123
Pass EPA

Rushing

Same rank
UNC defense
#88
CLEM offense
#88
EPA comparison
0.08
#88
0.06
#88
Rush EPA

Drive success

UNC defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC defense
#100
CLEM offense
#129
Success rates
43%
#100
36%
#129
Success rate
More metrics
0.01
#47
-0.04
#128
EPA / play
0.99
#4
1.21
#88
Explosiveness
13%
#119
18%
#124
Havoc

Current key players

North Carolina
QBMiles O'Neill
22 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
71.8141/729
DBGreg Smith
21 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.1
Coverage
89.6
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
9
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
3
86.619/2969
DBJalon Thompson
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
64.7
Coverage
79.9
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
3
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
80.259/2969
WRZamaurious Robertson
1 rec · 4 yds · 0 TD
78.270/2069
DBAde Willie
1 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
78.6
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
6
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
78.095/2969
WRJordan Shipp
20 rec · 273 yds · 0 TD
77.877/2069
Availability reports · 5
  • Jaxxon Warren · TEout · 2026-08-21

    Warren is managing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Jordan Washington · TEout · 2026-10-10

    Washington is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Jaylen Harvey · DLQues. · 2026-10-10

    Harvey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remain to seen if he will face Duke on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Carnell Warren · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Carnell is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Duke on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Keeyun Chapman · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Chapman is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face against Duke on Saturday, October 17th.

Clemson
QBTrent Pearman
— yds · — TD · — INT
69.2168/729
LBC.J. Kubah-Taylor
6 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.7
Coverage
73.6
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
7
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
78.1118/1796
CBAshton Hampton
13 tkl · 9 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
52.3
Coverage
81.5
Targets allowed
29
Rec allowed
11
Yards allowed
167
Passer rating allowed
54.8
Missed tackles
6
77.3113/2969
RBDavid Eziomume
11 yds · 1 TD · 11.0 YPC
75.5166/1044
CBBranden Strozier
6 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.2
Coverage
69.4
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
30
Passer rating allowed
138.9
Missed tackles
0
70.7400/2969
CBElliot Washington II
19 tkl · 4 PD · 3 INT
Player detail
Run defense
64.7
Coverage
69.6
Targets allowed
21
Rec allowed
11
Yards allowed
166
Passer rating allowed
70.8
Missed tackles
5
69.5472/2969
Availability reports · 7
  • David Eziomume · RBout · 2026-09-28

    Eziomume is liad up with a leg injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • Corian Gipson · CBout · 2026-09-25

    Gipson is dealing with an Undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against California on Friday, September 25th.

  • Peyton Streko · RBout · 2026-08-11

    Streko has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Cole Turner · WRout · 2026-08-21

    Turner is dealing with some personal reasons, and he is without a definitive timetable for return.

  • Keil McGriff · WRout · 2026-09-17

    McGriff is battling with an undisclsoed injury, and it is not anticipated that he will suit up against North Carolina on Saturday.

  • Jay Haynes · RBout · 2026-10-02

    Haynes is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to play against Miami on Saturday, October 3rd.

  • Christopher Vizzina · QBQues. · 2026-09-30

    Vizzina is dealing with an elbow injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Hurricanes on Saturday, October 3rd.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UNC
CLEM
vs
Offense
71.8
#96 of 138
QB
69.2
#105 of 138
67.5
#131 of 138
RB
72.9
#98 of 138
72.0
#62 of 138
WR
66.1
#127 of 138
77.2
#33 of 138
TE
61.4
#108 of 138
66.5
#84 of 138
OL
63.3
#112 of 138
Defense
74.8
#55 of 138
DL
73.1
#69 of 138
71.9
#89 of 138
LB
70.5
#100 of 138
77.4
#12 of 138
DB
70.9
#85 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

North Carolina
opponent
Clemson
H-19.1
MIA#4
-28.0H
A-13.5
DUKE#34
-7.8A
H+6.4
SYR#68
+6.8A