AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#50Away
Kansas
0-0 · AVR 55.4
26p
#32Home
TCU
0-1 · AVR 61.0
32p
KU 33%67% TCU
Spread
TCU -6.2
Total
59
Moneyline
KU+200TCU-200
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KU advantageevenTCU advantage →
KU throw
KU QB #95KU protection #1
KU +4
KU run
KU backs #63
KU +26
TCU throw
TCU protection #62KU pass rush #42
TCU +20
TCU run
KU +13

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Marshall
James Livingston
vs
Ansel Din-Mbuh
LT · KU
EDGE · TCU
96.9
66.8
KU +30
when KU throws
Cam Pickett
vs
Kalen Carroll
X · KU
CB1 · TCU
68.5
86.7
TCU +18
when TCU throws
Jordan Dwyer
vs
Jalen Todd
X · TCU
CB1 · KU
84.9
67.8
TCU +17
when TCU runs
Jeremy Payne
vs
Jibreel Al-Amin
RB · TCU
MLB · KU
73.4
78.3
KU +5
when KU runs
Yasin Willis
vs
Paul Oyewale
RB · KU
MLB · TCU
59.9
75.3
TCU +15
off the edge· pass rush vs protection
Cade Bennett
vs
Blake Herold
LT · TCU
EDGE · KU
51.8
82.8
KU +31

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kansas
LBJibreel Al-Amin
78.376/878
LBTrey Lathan
75.4103/878
WRCam Pickettquestionable
68.561/777
CBJalen Todd
67.8284/1427
SCorey Gordon
66.4323/1427
TELeyton Cure
60.053/287

also out — J. Thurman (RB), Tre'von McAlpine (DL)

TCU
CBKalen Carroll
86.732/1427
WRJordan Dwyer
84.914/777
LBPaul Oyewale
75.3105/878
RBJeremy Payne
73.443/514
LBZach Chapmanprobable
69.9145/878
SRyan Yaites
65.2350/1427

also out — Jacob Fields (S), D. Ezukanma (WR)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kansas
opponent
TCU
away-14.9
Utah#16
-6.2home
away-4.5
Kansas State#44
+4.2home
away+2.8
West Virginia#66
+11.5home
home-7.9
BYU#19
-4.1home
home+4.9
UCF#52
+3.6away
home+1.1
Baylor#42
-0.2away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTCU +6.295% interval: -17.7 to 30.280% interval: -11.1 to 23.6-11+24KU wins 33%TCU wins 67%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TCU 32–25 KUTCU 28–49 KU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTCU 32–46 KU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTCU 35–42 KU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTCU 39–39 KU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTCU 42–35 KU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTCU 46–32 KU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTCU 49–28 KU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTCU 53–25 KU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTCU 56–21 KU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTCU 25–46 KU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTCU 28–42 KU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTCU 32–39 KU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTCU 35–35 KU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTCU 39–32 KU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTCU 42–28 KU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTCU 46–25 KU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTCU 49–21 KU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTCU 53–18 KU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTCU 21–42 KU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTCU 25–39 KU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTCU 28–35 KU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTCU 32–32 KU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTCU 35–28 KU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTCU 39–25 KU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTCU 42–21 KU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTCU 46–18 KU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTCU 49–14 KU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTCU 18–39 KU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTCU 21–35 KU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTCU 25–32 KU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTCU 28–28 KU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTCU 32–25 KU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTCU 35–21 KU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTCU 39–18 KU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTCU 42–14 KU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTCU 46–11 KU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTCU 14–35 KU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTCU 18–32 KU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTCU 21–28 KU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTCU 25–25 KU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTCU 28–21 KU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTCU 32–18 KU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTCU 35–14 KU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTCU 39–11 KU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTCU 42–7 KU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTCU 11–32 KU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTCU 14–28 KU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTCU 18–25 KU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTCU 21–21 KU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTCU 25–18 KU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTCU 28–14 KU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTCU 32–11 KU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTCU 35–7 KU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTCU 39–4 KU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTCU 7–28 KU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTCU 11–25 KU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTCU 14–21 KU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTCU 18–18 KU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTCU 21–14 KU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTCU 25–11 KU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTCU 28–7 KU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTCU 32–4 KU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTCU 35–0 KU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalKU +21KU +7TCU +7TCU +21TCU +35margin →