CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
KU 25.8%74.2% TCU
Projected margin
TCU by 10.0
Projected total
54
80% outcome range
KU 9 to TCU 29
Win probability
TCU 74.2%

Current team profiles

Kansas
TCU

When Kansas has the ball

Passing

TCU defense
Higher-ranked profile
KU offense
#55
TCU defense
#17
EPA comparison
0.27
#55
-0.01
#17
Pass EPA

Rushing

TCU defense
Higher-ranked profile
KU offense
#19
TCU defense
#8
EPA comparison
0.24
#19
-0.17
#8
Rush EPA

Drive success

KU offense
Higher-ranked profile
KU offense
#28
TCU defense
#33
Success rates
48%
#28
36%
#33
Success rate
More metrics
0.25
#28
-0.10
#7
EPA / play
1.34
#20
0.96
#1
Explosiveness
14%
#60
18%
#39
Havoc

When TCU has the ball

Passing

TCU offense
Higher-ranked profile
KU defense
#71
TCU offense
#55
EPA comparison
0.15
#71
0.27
#55
Pass EPA

Rushing

KU defense
Higher-ranked profile
KU defense
#27
TCU offense
#113
EPA comparison
-0.07
#27
-0.01
#113
Rush EPA

Drive success

KU defense
Higher-ranked profile
KU defense
#20
TCU offense
#57
Success rates
35%
#20
45%
#57
Success rate
More metrics
-0.03
#30
0.13
#77
EPA / play
1.27
#92
1.24
#63
Explosiveness
20%
#19
15%
#69
Havoc

Current key players

Kansas
QBChase Jenkins
65 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
93.31/729
LBJaron Willis
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.8
Coverage
71.6
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
86.330/1796
WRNik McMillan
14 rec · 256 yds · 2 TD
85.324/2069
LBTrey Lathan
22 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.1
Coverage
83.7
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
9
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
83.554/1796
TEJack Utz
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Run blocking
84.2
Penalties
0
77.934/1017
RBJalen Dupree
103 yds · 2 TD · 4.9 YPC
77.8120/1044
Availability reports · 7
  • Cole Ballard · QBout · 2026-10-02

    Ballard is dealing with a shoulder injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Yasin Willis · RBout · 2026-09-28

    Willis has been out of the lineup with an foot injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Justin Thurman · RBout · 2026-08-11

    Thurman has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Kory Amachree · RBout · 2026-10-02

    Amachree is expected to miss the remainder of the season due to an undisclosed injury.

  • Jaylen Mason · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Mason is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jailen Butler · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Butler exited the game with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Wildcats on Saturday, October

  • Carter Moses · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Moses is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

TCU
QBJaden Craig
1400 yds · 8 TD · 4 INT
79.672/729
TEKari Ashley
25 rec · 374 yds · 4 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
55.0
Run blocking
64.8
Penalties
0
84.113/1017
SKaden McFadden
14 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
92.9
Coverage
67.0
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
3
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
82.838/2969
CBVernon Glover Jr.
16 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
91.3
Coverage
75.3
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
55
Passer rating allowed
22.9
Missed tackles
1
79.175/2969
LBHudson Hooper
27 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
71.8
Coverage
81.2
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
13
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
78.3114/1796
LBKeylan Abrams
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
60.8
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
77.3131/1796
Availability reports · 4
  • Michael Short · LBout · 2026-10-01

    Short is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Jordan Dwyer · WRout · 2026-09-11

    Dwyer is dealing with a foot injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • J. Pitchford · RBout · 2026-10-01

    Pitchford has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against Cougars on Saturday.

  • Kyle Lemmermann · KQues. · 2026-10-01

    Lemmermann is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Cougars on Saturday.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

KU
TCU
vs
Offense
93.3
#1 of 138
QB
79.6
#58 of 138
76.8
#57 of 138
RB
74.7
#74 of 138
78.9
#15 of 138
WR
67.7
#112 of 138
77.9
#30 of 138
TE
84.1
#13 of 138
77.5
#8 of 138
OL
69.3
#58 of 138
Defense
89.4
#1 of 138
DL
77.0
#37 of 138
83.2
#10 of 138
LB
76.8
#46 of 138
72.4
#66 of 138
DB
77.8
#10 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Kansas
opponent
TCU
A-9.7
KSU#37
+2.9H
A-4.5
WVU#86
+8.1H
A-17.0
UTAH#9
-8.8H
H-0.7
UCF#48
-8.0A
H-9.8
BYU#18
-7.0H
H-2.7
BAY#41
-0.7A