AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#66Away
West Virginia
0-0 · AVR 50.2
23p
#32Home
TCU
0-1 · AVR 61.0
35p
WVU 21%79% TCU
Spread
TCU -11.5
Total
57
Moneyline
WVU+366TCU-366
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WVU advantageevenTCU advantage →
WVU throw
TCU +9
WVU run
WVU line #79WVU backs #2
WVU +11
TCU throw
TCU protection #62WVU coverage #117
TCU +19
TCU run
WVU +14

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when WVU runs
Cam Cook
vs
Paul Oyewale
RB · WVU
MLB · TCU
82.0
75.3
WVU +7
when TCU throws
Jordan Dwyer
vs
Kamari Wilson
X · TCU
CB1 · WVU
84.9
71.8
TCU +13
when WVU throws
John Neider
vs
Kalen Carroll
X · WVU
CB1 · TCU
66.6
86.7
TCU +20
when TCU runs
Jeremy Payne
vs
Ben Cutter
RB · TCU
MLB · WVU
73.4
75.6
dead even
off the edge· pass rush vs protection
Cade Bennett
vs
Harper Holloman
LT · TCU
EDGE · WVU
51.8
86.1
WVU +34
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Cam Griffin
vs
Ansel Din-Mbuh
LT · WVU
EDGE · TCU
63.6
66.8
TCU +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
West Virginia
RBCam Cook
82.017/514
LBBen Cutter
75.6100/878
SKamari Wilson
71.8194/1427
WRJohn Neider
66.675/777
LBMalachi Hood
64.6220/878
QBScotty Fox Jr.
54.898/308

also out — Landon Drum (WR), Lawrence Autry (RB)

TCU
CBKalen Carroll
86.732/1427
WRJordan Dwyer
84.914/777
LBPaul Oyewale
75.3105/878
RBJeremy Payne
73.443/514
LBZach Chapmanprobable
69.9145/878
SRyan Yaites
65.2350/1427

also out — Jacob Fields (S), D. Ezukanma (WR)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
West Virginia
opponent
TCU
away-20.2
Utah#16
-6.2home
away-24.7
Texas Tech#5
-15.7away
home-2.8
Kansas#50
+6.2home
home-9.9
Arizona#26
-5.9away

Projected margin

80% between -6 and 29
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTCU +11.595% interval: -12.4 to 35.480% interval: -5.9 to 28.9-6+29WVU wins 21%TCU wins 79%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TCU 35–21 WVUTCU 32–46 WVU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTCU 35–42 WVU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTCU 39–39 WVU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTCU 42–35 WVU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTCU 46–32 WVU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTCU 49–28 WVU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTCU 53–25 WVU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTCU 56–21 WVU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTCU 60–18 WVU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTCU 28–42 WVU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTCU 32–39 WVU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTCU 35–35 WVU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTCU 39–32 WVU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTCU 42–28 WVU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTCU 46–25 WVU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTCU 49–21 WVU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTCU 53–18 WVU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTCU 56–14 WVU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTCU 25–39 WVU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTCU 28–35 WVU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTCU 32–32 WVU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTCU 35–28 WVU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTCU 39–25 WVU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTCU 42–21 WVU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTCU 46–18 WVU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTCU 49–14 WVU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTCU 53–11 WVU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTCU 21–35 WVU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTCU 25–32 WVU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTCU 28–28 WVU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTCU 32–25 WVU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTCU 35–21 WVU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTCU 39–18 WVU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTCU 42–14 WVU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTCU 46–11 WVU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTCU 49–7 WVU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTCU 18–32 WVU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTCU 21–28 WVU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTCU 25–25 WVU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTCU 28–21 WVU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTCU 32–18 WVU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTCU 35–14 WVU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTCU 39–11 WVU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTCU 42–7 WVU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTCU 46–4 WVU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTCU 14–28 WVU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTCU 18–25 WVU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTCU 21–21 WVU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTCU 25–18 WVU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTCU 28–14 WVU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTCU 32–11 WVU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTCU 35–7 WVU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTCU 39–4 WVU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTCU 42–0 WVU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTCU 11–25 WVU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTCU 14–21 WVU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTCU 18–18 WVU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTCU 21–14 WVU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTCU 25–11 WVU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTCU 28–7 WVU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTCU 32–4 WVU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTCU 35–0 WVU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalWVU +14PKTCU +14TCU +28TCU +42margin →