AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sun Sep 20
#104Away
Arkansas State
0-0 · AVR 38.8
19p
#32Home
TCU
0-1 · AVR 61.0
38p
ARST 10%90% TCU
Spread
TCU -18.9
Total
57
Moneyline
ARST+894TCU-894
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ARST advantageevenTCU advantage →
ARST throw
TCU +27
ARST run
ARST backs #67
TCU +22
TCU throw
TCU protection #62
TCU +35
TCU run
TCU +45

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TCU throws
Jordan Dwyer
vs
Five Hamilton
X · TCU
CB1 · ARST
84.9
67.8
TCU +17
off the edge· pass rush vs protection
Cade Bennett
vs
Shakai Woods
LT · TCU
EDGE · ARST
51.8
84.8
ARST +33
when ARST runs
Kenyon Clay
vs
Paul Oyewale
RB · ARST
MLB · TCU
59.4
75.3
TCU +16
when ARST throws
Chauncy Cobb
vs
Kalen Carroll
X · ARST
CB1 · TCU
45.7
86.7
TCU +41
when TCU runs
Jeremy Payne
vs
Nigel Nelson
RB · TCU
MLB · ARST
73.4
51.6
TCU +22
over the middle
Lafayette Kaiuway
vs
Joe Drew
TE · TCU
FS · ARST
56.0
59.0
ARST +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arkansas State
SFive Hamilton
67.8286/1427
CBNoah Flores
66.7315/1427
CBJaylen Heyward
65.2351/1427
RBKenyon Clay
59.4117/514
QBDrew Dickey
55.395/308
LBNigel Nelson
51.6446/878

also out — D. Spencer (RB)

TCU
CBKalen Carroll
86.732/1427
WRJordan Dwyer
84.914/777
LBPaul Oyewale
75.3105/878
RBJeremy Payne
73.443/514
LBZach Chapmanprobable
69.9145/878
SRyan Yaites
65.2350/1427

also out — Jacob Fields (S), D. Ezukanma (WR)

Projected margin

80% between 2 and 36
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTCU +18.995% interval: -5 to 42.880% interval: 1.5 to 36.3+2+36ARST wins 10%TCU wins 90%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TCU 39–18 ARSTTCU 35–42 ARST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTCU 39–39 ARST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTCU 42–35 ARST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTCU 46–32 ARST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTCU 49–28 ARST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTCU 53–25 ARST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTCU 56–21 ARST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTCU 60–18 ARST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTCU 63–14 ARST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTCU 32–39 ARST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTCU 35–35 ARST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTCU 39–32 ARST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTCU 42–28 ARST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTCU 46–25 ARST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTCU 49–21 ARST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTCU 53–18 ARST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTCU 56–14 ARST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTCU 60–11 ARST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTCU 28–35 ARST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTCU 32–32 ARST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTCU 35–28 ARST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTCU 39–25 ARST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTCU 42–21 ARST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTCU 46–18 ARST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTCU 49–14 ARST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTCU 53–11 ARST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTCU 56–7 ARST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTCU 25–32 ARST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTCU 28–28 ARST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTCU 32–25 ARST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTCU 35–21 ARST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTCU 39–18 ARST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTCU 42–14 ARST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTCU 46–11 ARST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTCU 49–7 ARST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTCU 53–4 ARST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTCU 21–28 ARST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTCU 25–25 ARST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTCU 28–21 ARST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTCU 32–18 ARST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTCU 35–14 ARST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTCU 39–11 ARST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTCU 42–7 ARST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTCU 46–4 ARST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTCU 49–0 ARST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTCU 18–25 ARST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTCU 21–21 ARST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTCU 25–18 ARST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTCU 28–14 ARST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTCU 32–11 ARST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTCU 35–7 ARST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTCU 39–4 ARST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTCU 42–0 ARST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)TCU 14–21 ARST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTCU 18–18 ARST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTCU 21–14 ARST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTCU 25–11 ARST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTCU 28–7 ARST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTCU 32–4 ARST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTCU 35–0 ARST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalARST +7TCU +7TCU +21TCU +35TCU +49margin →