Passing
TCU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST offense
- #70
- TCU defense
- #17
EPA comparison
0.23
#70
-0.01
#17
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 8:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
ARST 11.3%88.7% TCU
- Projected margin
- TCU by 18.5
- Projected total
- 54
- 80% outcome range
- ARST 2 to TCU 39
- Win probability
- TCU 88.7%
FinalARST 7 · TCU 31model had +18.5, off by 5.5
Current team profiles
Arkansas StateTCUWhen Arkansas State has the ball
Rushing
TCU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST offense
- #39
- TCU defense
- #8
EPA comparison
0.18
#39
-0.17
#8
Rush EPA
Drive success
ARST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST offense
- #13
- TCU defense
- #33
Success rates
50%
#13
36%
#33
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#59
-0.10
#7
EPA / play
1.16
#103
0.96
#1
Explosiveness
14%
#66
18%
#39
Havoc
When TCU has the ball
Passing
TCU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST defense
- #135
- TCU offense
- #55
EPA comparison
0.46
#135
0.27
#55
Pass EPA
Rushing
ARST defense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST defense
- #102
- TCU offense
- #113
EPA comparison
0.13
#102
-0.01
#113
Rush EPA
Drive success
TCU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST defense
- #129
- TCU offense
- #57
Success rates
47%
#129
45%
#57
Success rate
More metrics
0.21
#123
0.13
#77
EPA / play
1.20
#63
1.24
#63
Explosiveness
11%
#132
15%
#69
Havoc
Current key players
Arkansas StateQBTrey Owens
1043 yds · 5 TD · 4 INT
77.596/729
LBKam Moore
23 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 86.2
- Coverage
- 72.3
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 4
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 0
85.234/1796
LBRobert Stevens
25 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 73.9
- Coverage
- 89.5
- Pressures
- 3
- Pass-rush snaps
- 17
- Missed tackles
- 6
- Forced fumbles
- 1
84.940/1796
SBrandon Greil
16 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 81.5
- Coverage
- 77.3
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 6
- Yards allowed
- 54
- Passer rating allowed
- 59.2
- Missed tackles
- 3
80.458/2969
CBNoah Flores
12 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 58.2
- Coverage
- 81.9
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 4
- Yards allowed
- 108
- Passer rating allowed
- 101.8
- Missed tackles
- 3
78.097/2969
RBJames Lee
123 yds · 0 TD · 7.2 YPC
75.5170/1044
Availability reports · 1
- Devin Spencer · RBout · 2026-08-17
Spencer is dealing with a knee injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.
TCUQBJaden Craig
1400 yds · 8 TD · 4 INT
79.672/729
TEKari Ashley
25 rec · 374 yds · 4 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 55.0
- Run blocking
- 64.8
- Penalties
- 0
84.113/1017
SKaden McFadden
14 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 92.9
- Coverage
- 67.0
- Targets allowed
- 2
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 3
- Passer rating allowed
- 56.3
- Missed tackles
- 0
82.838/2969
CBVernon Glover Jr.
16 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 91.3
- Coverage
- 75.3
- Targets allowed
- 15
- Rec allowed
- 6
- Yards allowed
- 55
- Passer rating allowed
- 22.9
- Missed tackles
- 1
79.175/2969
LBHudson Hooper
27 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 71.8
- Coverage
- 81.2
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 13
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 0
78.3114/1796
LBKeylan Abrams
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 60.8
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 1
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
77.3131/1796
Availability reports · 4
- Michael Short · LBout · 2026-10-01
Short is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.
- Jordan Dwyer · WRout · 2026-09-11
Dwyer is dealing with a foot injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- J. Pitchford · RBout · 2026-10-01
Pitchford has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against Cougars on Saturday.
- Kyle Lemmermann · KQues. · 2026-10-01
Lemmermann is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Cougars on Saturday.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
ARSTArkansas State
TCUTCU
vs
Offense
77.5
#73 of 138
QB
Quarterback
79.6
#58 of 138
74.5
#77 of 138
RB
Running backs
74.7
#74 of 138
72.0
#61 of 138
WR
Receivers
67.7
#112 of 138
67.0
#82 of 138
TE
Tight ends
84.1
#13 of 138
71.0
#46 of 138
OL
Offensive line
69.3
#58 of 138
Defense
72.6
#77 of 138
DL
Defensive line
77.0
#37 of 138
77.9
#37 of 138
LB
Linebackers
76.8
#46 of 138
76.6
#21 of 138
DB
Secondary
77.8
#10 of 138