AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#16Away
Utah
0-0 · AVR 71.8
32p
#32Home
TCU
0-1 · AVR 61.0
26p
UTAH 66%34% TCU
Spread
UTAH -6.2
Total
58
Moneyline
UTAH-198TCU+198
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UTAH advantageevenTCU advantage →
UTAH throw
UTAH +37
UTAH run
UTAH +36
TCU throw
TCU protection #62
UTAH +13
TCU run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TCU throws
Jordan Dwyer
vs
Jackson Bennee
X · TCU
CB1 · UTAH
84.9
90.2
UTAH +5
when UTAH throws
Braden Pegan
vs
Kalen Carroll
X · UTAH
CB1 · TCU
82.5
86.7
TCU +4
when UTAH runs
Wayshawn Parker
vs
Paul Oyewale
RB · UTAH
MLB · TCU
84.7
75.3
UTAH +9
off the edge· hunting Dampier
Zereoue Williams
vs
Ansel Din-Mbuh
LT · UTAH
EDGE · TCU
87.1
66.8
UTAH +20
off the edge· pass rush vs protection
Cade Bennett
vs
Ethan Day
LT · TCU
EDGE · UTAH
51.8
88.6
UTAH +37
when TCU runs
Jeremy Payne
vs
Johnathan Hall
RB · TCU
MLB · UTAH
73.4
65.5
TCU +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Utah
SJackson Bennee
90.211/1427
RBWayshawn Parker
84.77/514
QBDevon Dampier
83.813/308
WRBraden Pegan
82.517/777
CBElijah Reed
81.083/1427
CBRock Caldwell
77.9116/1427

also out — Kingston Stroshine (LB)

TCU
CBKalen Carroll
86.732/1427
WRJordan Dwyer
84.914/777
LBPaul Oyewale
75.3105/878
RBJeremy Payne
73.443/514
LBZach Chapmanprobable
69.9145/878
SRyan Yaites
65.2350/1427

also out — Jacob Fields (S), D. Ezukanma (WR)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Utah
opponent
TCU
home+14.9
Kansas#50
+6.2home
away+2.8
Arizona#26
-5.9away
home+20.2
West Virginia#66
+11.5home
home+4.5
BYU#19
-4.1home

Projected margin

80% between -24 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUTAH +6.295% interval: -30.1 to 17.780% interval: -23.5 to 11.2-23+11UTAH wins 66%TCU wins 34%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTAH 32–25 TCUTCU 21–56 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTCU 25–53 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTCU 28–49 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTCU 32–46 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTCU 35–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTCU 39–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTCU 42–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTCU 46–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTCU 49–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTCU 18–53 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTCU 21–49 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTCU 25–46 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTCU 28–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTCU 32–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTCU 35–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTCU 39–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTCU 42–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTCU 46–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTCU 14–49 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTCU 18–46 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTCU 21–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTCU 25–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTCU 28–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTCU 32–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTCU 35–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTCU 39–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTCU 42–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTCU 11–46 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTCU 14–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTCU 18–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTCU 21–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTCU 25–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTCU 28–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTCU 32–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTCU 35–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTCU 39–18 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTCU 7–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTCU 11–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTCU 14–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTCU 18–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTCU 21–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTCU 25–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTCU 28–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTCU 32–18 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTCU 35–14 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTCU 4–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTCU 7–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTCU 11–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTCU 14–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTCU 18–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTCU 21–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTCU 25–18 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTCU 28–14 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTCU 32–11 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTCU 0–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTCU 4–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTCU 7–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTCU 11–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTCU 14–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTCU 18–18 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTCU 21–14 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTCU 25–11 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTCU 28–7 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalUTAH +35UTAH +21UTAH +7TCU +7TCU +21margin →