AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 11:30 PM
#5Away
Texas Tech
0-0 · AVR 77.5
45p
#122Home
Oregon State
0-0 · AVR 30.8
12p
TTU 99%1% ORST
Spread
TTU -32.7
Total
57
Moneyline
TTU—ORST—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TTU advantageevenORST advantage →
TTU throw
TTU +35
TTU run
TTU backs #1
TTU +32
ORST throw
ORST protection #57
TTU +72
ORST run
TTU +54

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TTU runs
Cameron Dickey
vs
Aiden Sullivan
RB · TTU
MLB · ORST
83.8
70.3
TTU +14
off the edge· hunting Murphy
Nathan Elu
vs
A.J. Holmes Jr.
LT · ORST
EDGE · TTU
48.3
97.7
TTU +49
when ORST runs
AJ Newberry
vs
Adam Trick
RB · ORST
MLB · TTU
53.9
91.3
TTU +37
when ORST throws
Karson Boschma
vs
Brice Pollock
X · ORST
CB1 · TTU
42.5
100.7
TTU +58
when TTU throws
Donte Lee Jr.
vs
Sailasa Vadrawale III
X · TTU
CB1 · ORST
67.3
72.4
ORST +5
over the middle
Terrance Carter Jr.
vs
Trey Glasper
TE · TTU
FS · ORST
79.4
51.1
TTU +28

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Texas Tech
CBBrice Pollock
100.73/1427
LBAdam Trick
91.39/878
LBAdam Hill
90.411/878
CBAshton Hamptonquestionable
84.452/1427
RBCameron Dickey
83.812/514
CBAmier Boyd
83.857/1427

also out — Cash Cleveland (OL)

Oregon State
DBSailasa Vadrawale III
72.4183/1427
LBAiden Sullivan
70.3141/878
LBTakari Hickle
67.3189/878
DBZephen Walker
57.5549/1427
DBHarlem Howard
56.2585/1427
RBAJ Newberry
53.9182/514

Projected margin

80% between -50 and -15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTTU +32.795% interval: -56.6 to -8.880% interval: -50.1 to -15.4-50-15TTU wins 99%ORST wins 1%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TTU 46–11 ORSTORST 7–70 TTU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesORST 11–67 TTU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesORST 14–63 TTU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesORST 18–60 TTU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesORST 21–56 TTU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesORST 25–53 TTU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesORST 28–49 TTU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORST 32–46 TTU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesORST 35–42 TTU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORST 4–67 TTU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORST 7–63 TTU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesORST 11–60 TTU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesORST 14–56 TTU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesORST 18–53 TTU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesORST 21–49 TTU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORST 25–46 TTU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesORST 28–42 TTU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORST 32–39 TTU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesORST 0–63 TTU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORST 4–60 TTU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesORST 7–56 TTU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORST 11–53 TTU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORST 14–49 TTU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesORST 18–46 TTU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesORST 21–42 TTU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesORST 25–39 TTU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesORST 28–35 TTU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ORST 0–56 TTU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesORST 4–53 TTU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesORST 7–49 TTU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesORST 11–46 TTU neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesORST 14–42 TTU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesORST 18–39 TTU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesORST 21–35 TTU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesORST 25–32 TTU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ORST 0–49 TTU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORST 4–46 TTU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesORST 7–42 TTU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesORST 11–39 TTU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesORST 14–35 TTU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesORST 18–32 TTU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesORST 21–28 TTU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ORST 0–42 TTU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesORST 4–39 TTU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORST 7–35 TTU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesORST 11–32 TTU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesORST 14–28 TTU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesORST 18–25 TTU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ORST 0–35 TTU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesORST 4–32 TTU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesORST 7–28 TTU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesORST 11–25 TTU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesORST 14–21 TTU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalTTU +63TTU +49TTU +35TTU +21TTU +7margin →