AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#5Away
Texas Tech
0-0 · AVR 77.5
38p
#74Home
Colorado
0-0 · AVR 47.8
17p
TTU 93%7% COLO
Spread
TTU -21.6
Total
55
Moneyline
TTU-1306COLO+1306
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TTU advantageevenCOLO advantage →
TTU throw
even
TTU run
TTU backs #1
even
COLO throw
COLO QB #130COLO WR #24
TTU +56
COLO run
TTU +62

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when COLO throws
Danny Scudero
vs
Brice Pollock
X · COLO
CB1 · TTU
70.8
100.7
TTU +30
when TTU runs
Cameron Dickey
vs
Gideon ESPN Lampron
RB · TTU
MLB · COLO
83.8
83.8
dead even
off the edge· hunting Ponder
Taj White
vs
A.J. Holmes Jr.
LT · COLO
EDGE · TTU
57.6
97.7
TTU +40
when TTU throws
Donte Lee Jr.
vs
Justin Eaglin
X · TTU
CB1 · COLO
67.3
87.2
COLO +20
when COLO runs
Micah Welch
vs
Adam Trick
RB · COLO
MLB · TTU
54.7
91.3
TTU +37
over the middle
Terrance Carter Jr.
vs
Cree Thomas
TE · TTU
FS · COLO
79.4
65.4
TTU +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Texas Tech
CBBrice Pollock
100.73/1427
LBAdam Trick
91.39/878
LBAdam Hill
90.411/878
CBAshton Hamptonquestionable
84.452/1427
RBCameron Dickey
83.812/514
CBAmier Boyd
83.857/1427

also out — Cash Cleveland (OL)

Colorado
DBJustin Eaglin
87.225/1427
LBGideon ESPN Lampron
83.829/878
WRDanny Scuderoquestionable
70.853/777
DBJason Stokes Jr.
69.4255/1427
LBLiona Lefau
67.6183/878
DBNaeten Mitchell
66.6318/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Texas Tech
opponent
Colorado
home+19.4
Arizona State#43
-9.7away
home+17.6
Houston#36
-6.5home
away+15.7
Cincinnati#51
-8.4away
away+13.0
Baylor#42
-11.1away
away+27.6
Oklahoma State#97
+3.6away

Projected margin

80% between -39 and -4
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTTU +21.695% interval: -45.5 to 2.380% interval: -39 to -4.2-39-4TTU wins 93%COLO wins 7%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TTU 39–18 COLOCOLO 14–63 TTU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCOLO 18–60 TTU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCOLO 21–56 TTU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCOLO 25–53 TTU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCOLO 28–49 TTU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCOLO 32–46 TTU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCOLO 35–42 TTU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCOLO 39–39 TTU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCOLO 42–35 TTU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCOLO 11–60 TTU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCOLO 14–56 TTU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCOLO 18–53 TTU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCOLO 21–49 TTU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCOLO 25–46 TTU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCOLO 28–42 TTU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCOLO 32–39 TTU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCOLO 35–35 TTU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCOLO 39–32 TTU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCOLO 7–56 TTU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCOLO 11–53 TTU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCOLO 14–49 TTU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCOLO 18–46 TTU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCOLO 21–42 TTU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCOLO 25–39 TTU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCOLO 28–35 TTU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCOLO 32–32 TTU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCOLO 35–28 TTU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCOLO 4–53 TTU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCOLO 7–49 TTU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCOLO 11–46 TTU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCOLO 14–42 TTU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCOLO 18–39 TTU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesCOLO 21–35 TTU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCOLO 25–32 TTU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCOLO 28–28 TTU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCOLO 32–25 TTU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCOLO 0–49 TTU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCOLO 4–46 TTU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCOLO 7–42 TTU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCOLO 11–39 TTU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCOLO 14–35 TTU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCOLO 18–32 TTU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCOLO 21–28 TTU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCOLO 25–25 TTU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCOLO 28–21 TTU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)COLO 0–42 TTU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCOLO 4–39 TTU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCOLO 7–35 TTU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCOLO 11–32 TTU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCOLO 14–28 TTU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCOLO 18–25 TTU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCOLO 21–21 TTU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCOLO 25–18 TTU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)COLO 0–35 TTU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCOLO 4–32 TTU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCOLO 7–28 TTU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCOLO 11–25 TTU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCOLO 14–21 TTU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCOLO 18–18 TTU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCOLO 21–14 TTU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalTTU +49TTU +35TTU +21TTU +7COLO +7margin →