AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#137Away
Sam Houston
0-0 · AVR 21.9
8p
#5Home
Texas Tech
0-0 · AVR 77.5
52p
SHSU 0%100% TTU
Spread
TTU -43.8
Total
60
Moneyline
SHSU—TTU—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SHSU advantageevenTTU advantage →
SHSU throw
TTU +89
SHSU run
TTU +77
TTU throw
TTU +64
TTU run
TTU backs #1
TTU +56

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SHSU runs
Landan Brown
vs
Adam Trick
RB · SHSU
MLB · TTU
57.0
91.3
TTU +34
when SHSU throws
Chris Reed
vs
Brice Pollock
X · SHSU
CB1 · TTU
43.4
100.7
TTU +57
when TTU runs
Cameron Dickey
vs
Dean Ford
RB · TTU
MLB · SHSU
83.8
53.9
TTU +30
off the edge· hunting Hammond
Sheridan Wilson
vs
Dylan Frazier
LT · TTU
EDGE · SHSU
59.7
69.5
SHSU +10
over the middle
Max Whisner
vs
Mikal Harrison-Pilot
TE · SHSU
FS · TTU
37.2
82.1
TTU +45
off the edge· hunting Locke
Isaac Sohn
vs
A.J. Holmes Jr.
LT · SHSU
EDGE · TTU
11.2
97.7
TTU +86

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Sam Houston
RBLandan Brown
57.0141/514
LBDean Ford
53.9406/878
LBEli Wallace
50.0482/878
WRChris Reed
43.4511/777
QBLandyn Locke
42.0257/308
STyler Bailey
41.3998/1427
Texas Tech
CBBrice Pollock
100.73/1427
LBAdam Trick
91.39/878
LBAdam Hill
90.411/878
CBAshton Hamptonquestionable
84.452/1427
RBCameron Dickey
83.812/514
CBAmier Boyd
83.857/1427

also out — Cash Cleveland (OL)

Projected margin

80% between 26 and 61
-3+3+7+14PKTTU +43.895% interval: 19.9 to 67.780% interval: 26.4 to 61.1+26+61SHSU wins 0%TTU wins 100%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TTU 53–11 SHSUTTU 49–35 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTTU 53–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTTU 56–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTTU 60–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTTU 63–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTTU 67–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTTU 70–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTTU 74–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTTU 77–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 46–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 49–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTTU 53–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTTU 56–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTTU 60–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTTU 63–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTTU 67–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTTU 70–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTTU 74–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTTU 42–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 46–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTTU 49–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTTU 53–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTTU 56–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesTTU 60–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTTU 63–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTTU 67–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTTU 70–0 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTTU 39–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTTU 42–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTTU 46–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTTU 49–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTTU 53–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.8% of outcomesTTU 56–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesTTU 60–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTTU 63–0 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)TTU 35–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTTU 39–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTTU 42–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTTU 46–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTTU 49–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.8% of outcomesTTU 53–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesTTU 56–0 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)TTU 32–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 35–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTTU 39–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTTU 42–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTTU 46–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTTU 49–0 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)TTU 28–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 32–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTTU 35–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTTU 39–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTTU 42–0 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)84777063564942totalTTU +14TTU +28TTU +42TTU +56TTU +70margin →