AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#5Away
Texas Tech
0-0 · AVR 77.5
42p
#97Home
Oklahoma State
0-0 · AVR 40.7
15p
TTU 97%3% OKST
Spread
TTU -27.6
Total
57
Moneyline
TTU—OKST—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TTU advantageevenOKST advantage →
TTU throw
TTU +10
TTU run
TTU backs #1
TTU +20
OKST throw
OKST protection #77
TTU +16
OKST run
OKST backs #26
TTU +38

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mestemaker
Johnny Dickson III
vs
A.J. Holmes Jr.
LT · OKST
EDGE · TTU
90.8
97.7
TTU +7
when OKST throws
Wyatt Young
vs
Brice Pollock
X · OKST
CB1 · TTU
79.7
100.7
TTU +21
when OKST runs
Caleb Hawkins
vs
Adam Trick
RB · OKST
MLB · TTU
88.3
91.3
TTU +3
when TTU runs
Cameron Dickey
vs
Ethan Wesloski
RB · TTU
MLB · OKST
83.8
76.0
TTU +8
over the middle
Terrance Carter Jr.
vs
Mo Horn
TE · TTU
FS · OKST
79.4
63.9
TTU +16
off the edge· hunting Hammond
Sheridan Wilson
vs
Keviyan Huddleston
LT · TTU
EDGE · OKST
59.7
79.1
OKST +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Texas Tech
CBBrice Pollock
100.73/1427
LBAdam Trick
91.39/878
LBAdam Hill
90.411/878
CBAshton Hamptonquestionable
84.452/1427
RBCameron Dickey
83.812/514
CBAmier Boyd
83.857/1427

also out — Cash Cleveland (OL)

Oklahoma State
RBCaleb Hawkins
88.32/514
QBDrew Mestemaker
86.39/308
WRWyatt Young
79.722/777
LBEthan Wesloski
76.095/878
CBKollin Lewis
68.8265/1427
SChristian Bodnar
68.1279/1427

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Texas Tech
opponent
Oklahoma State
home+17.6
Houston#36
-17.5away
home+24.7
West Virginia#66
-10.4away
home+19.4
Arizona State#43
-15.7away
away+21.6
Colorado#74
-3.6home

Projected margin

80% between -45 and -10
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTTU +27.695% interval: -51.6 to -3.780% interval: -45 to -10.3-45-10TTU wins 97%OKST wins 3%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TTU 42–14 OKSTOKST 11–67 TTU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOKST 14–63 TTU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOKST 18–60 TTU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOKST 21–56 TTU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOKST 25–53 TTU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOKST 28–49 TTU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOKST 32–46 TTU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOKST 35–42 TTU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOKST 39–39 TTU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOKST 7–63 TTU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOKST 11–60 TTU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOKST 14–56 TTU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOKST 18–53 TTU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOKST 21–49 TTU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOKST 25–46 TTU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOKST 28–42 TTU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOKST 32–39 TTU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOKST 35–35 TTU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOKST 4–60 TTU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOKST 7–56 TTU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOKST 11–53 TTU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOKST 14–49 TTU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOKST 18–46 TTU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesOKST 21–42 TTU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOKST 25–39 TTU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOKST 28–35 TTU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOKST 32–32 TTU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOKST 0–56 TTU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOKST 4–53 TTU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOKST 7–49 TTU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOKST 11–46 TTU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOKST 14–42 TTU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesOKST 18–39 TTU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOKST 21–35 TTU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOKST 25–32 TTU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOKST 28–28 TTU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)OKST 0–49 TTU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOKST 4–46 TTU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOKST 7–42 TTU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOKST 11–39 TTU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOKST 14–35 TTU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOKST 18–32 TTU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOKST 21–28 TTU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOKST 25–25 TTU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)OKST 0–42 TTU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOKST 4–39 TTU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOKST 7–35 TTU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOKST 11–32 TTU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOKST 14–28 TTU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOKST 18–25 TTU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOKST 21–21 TTU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)OKST 0–35 TTU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOKST 4–32 TTU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOKST 7–28 TTU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOKST 11–25 TTU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOKST 14–21 TTU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOKST 18–18 TTU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalTTU +56TTU +42TTU +28TTU +14PKmargin →