AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#43Away
Arizona State
0-0 · AVR 57.5
18p
#5Home
Texas Tech
0-0 · AVR 77.5
38p
ASU 9%91% TTU
Spread
TTU -19.4
Total
56
Moneyline
ASU+975TTU-975
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ASU advantageevenTTU advantage →
ASU throw
ASU WR #16ASU protection #115
TTU +43
ASU run
TTU +86
TTU throw
ASU +8
TTU run
TTU backs #1
TTU +13

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ASU throws
Omarion Miller
vs
Brice Pollock
X · ASU
CB1 · TTU
73.4
100.7
TTU +27
when TTU throws
Donte Lee Jr.
vs
Ashton Stamps
X · TTU
CB1 · ASU
67.3
85.2
ASU +18
when TTU runs
Cameron Dickey
vs
Martell Hughes
RB · TTU
MLB · ASU
83.8
67.7
TTU +16
over the middle
Terrance Carter Jr.
vs
Rodney Bimage Jr.
TE · TTU
FS · ASU
79.4
70.2
TTU +9
when ASU runs
Demarius Robinson
vs
Adam Trick
RB · ASU
MLB · TTU
47.5
91.3
TTU +44
off the edge· hunting Hammond
Sheridan Wilson
vs
Jalen Thompson
LT · TTU
EDGE · ASU
59.7
75.2
ASU +15

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arizona State
DBAshton Stamps
85.243/1427
DBJessiah McGrew
78.0115/1427
WROmarion Miller
73.438/777
SAdrian Wilson
73.3172/1427
WRRaiden Vines-Bright
70.951/777
LBMartell Hughes
67.7182/878

also out — key defensive lineman (DL), Nigel Pringle (CB), Z. Fiaseu (LB)

Texas Tech
CBBrice Pollock
100.73/1427
LBAdam Trick
91.39/878
LBAdam Hill
90.411/878
CBAshton Hamptonquestionable
84.452/1427
RBCameron Dickey
83.812/514
CBAmier Boyd
83.857/1427

also out — Cash Cleveland (OL)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Arizona State
opponent
Texas Tech
away-9.6
Arizona#26
+12.3home
home+9.7
Colorado#74
+21.6away
home+15.7
Oklahoma State#97
+27.6away
home+1.1
Baylor#42
+13.0away

Projected margin

80% between 2 and 37
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTTU +19.495% interval: -4.5 to 43.380% interval: 2 to 36.8+2+37ASU wins 9%TTU wins 91%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TTU 39–18 ASUTTU 35–42 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 39–39 ASU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTTU 42–35 ASU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTTU 46–32 ASU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTTU 49–28 ASU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTTU 53–25 ASU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTTU 56–21 ASU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTTU 60–18 ASU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTTU 63–14 ASU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTTU 32–39 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTTU 35–35 ASU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTTU 39–32 ASU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTTU 42–28 ASU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTTU 46–25 ASU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTTU 49–21 ASU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTTU 53–18 ASU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTTU 56–14 ASU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTTU 60–11 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 28–35 ASU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTTU 32–32 ASU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTTU 35–28 ASU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTTU 39–25 ASU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTTU 42–21 ASU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTTU 46–18 ASU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTTU 49–14 ASU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTTU 53–11 ASU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTTU 56–7 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 25–32 ASU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTTU 28–28 ASU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTTU 32–25 ASU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTTU 35–21 ASU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTTU 39–18 ASU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTTU 42–14 ASU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTTU 46–11 ASU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTTU 49–7 ASU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTTU 53–4 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 21–28 ASU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTTU 25–25 ASU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTTU 28–21 ASU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTTU 32–18 ASU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTTU 35–14 ASU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTTU 39–11 ASU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTTU 42–7 ASU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTTU 46–4 ASU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTTU 49–0 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 18–25 ASU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTTU 21–21 ASU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTTU 25–18 ASU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTTU 28–14 ASU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTTU 32–11 ASU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTTU 35–7 ASU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTTU 39–4 ASU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTTU 42–0 ASU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)TTU 14–21 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 18–18 ASU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTTU 21–14 ASU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTTU 25–11 ASU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTTU 28–7 ASU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTTU 32–4 ASU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTTU 35–0 ASU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalASU +7TTU +7TTU +21TTU +35TTU +49margin →