AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#66Away
West Virginia
0-0 · AVR 50.2
16p
#5Home
Texas Tech
0-0 · AVR 77.5
41p
WVU 5%95% TTU
Spread
TTU -24.7
Total
56
Moneyline
WVU+2037TTU-2037
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WVU advantageevenTTU advantage →
WVU throw
TTU +51
WVU run
WVU line #79WVU backs #2
TTU +32
TTU throw
WVU coverage #117WVU pass rush #27
TTU +22
TTU run
TTU backs #1
TTU +4

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when WVU runs
Cam Cook
vs
Adam Trick
RB · WVU
MLB · TTU
82.0
91.3
TTU +9
when WVU throws
John Neider
vs
Brice Pollock
X · WVU
CB1 · TTU
66.6
100.7
TTU +34
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Cam Griffin
vs
A.J. Holmes Jr.
LT · WVU
EDGE · TTU
63.6
97.7
TTU +34
when TTU runs
Cameron Dickey
vs
Ben Cutter
RB · TTU
MLB · WVU
83.8
75.6
TTU +8
off the edge· hunting Hammond
Sheridan Wilson
vs
Harper Holloman
LT · TTU
EDGE · WVU
59.7
86.1
WVU +26
when TTU throws
Donte Lee Jr.
vs
Kamari Wilson
X · TTU
CB1 · WVU
67.3
71.8
WVU +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
West Virginia
RBCam Cook
82.017/514
LBBen Cutter
75.6100/878
SKamari Wilson
71.8194/1427
WRJohn Neider
66.675/777
LBMalachi Hood
64.6220/878
QBScotty Fox Jr.
54.898/308

also out — Landon Drum (WR), Lawrence Autry (RB)

Texas Tech
CBBrice Pollock
100.73/1427
LBAdam Trick
91.39/878
LBAdam Hill
90.411/878
CBAshton Hamptonquestionable
84.452/1427
RBCameron Dickey
83.812/514
CBAmier Boyd
83.857/1427

also out — Cash Cleveland (OL)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
West Virginia
opponent
Texas Tech
away-11.5
TCU#32
+15.7home
home-9.9
Arizona#26
+12.3home
home-4.6
Houston#36
+17.6home
home+10.4
Oklahoma State#97
+27.6away
home-1.5
Cincinnati#51
+15.7away

Projected margin

80% between 7 and 42
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTTU +24.795% interval: 0.8 to 48.680% interval: 7.3 to 42.1+7+42WVU wins 5%TTU wins 95%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TTU 42–14 WVUTTU 39–39 WVU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTTU 42–35 WVU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTTU 46–32 WVU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTTU 49–28 WVU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTTU 53–25 WVU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTTU 56–21 WVU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTTU 60–18 WVU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTTU 63–14 WVU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTTU 67–11 WVU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTTU 35–35 WVU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTTU 39–32 WVU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTTU 42–28 WVU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTTU 46–25 WVU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTTU 49–21 WVU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTTU 53–18 WVU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTTU 56–14 WVU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTTU 60–11 WVU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTTU 63–7 WVU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTTU 32–32 WVU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTTU 35–28 WVU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTTU 39–25 WVU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTTU 42–21 WVU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTTU 46–18 WVU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTTU 49–14 WVU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTTU 53–11 WVU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTTU 56–7 WVU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTTU 60–4 WVU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTTU 28–28 WVU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTTU 32–25 WVU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTTU 35–21 WVU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTTU 39–18 WVU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTTU 42–14 WVU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTTU 46–11 WVU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTTU 49–7 WVU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTTU 53–4 WVU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTTU 56–0 WVU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 25–25 WVU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTTU 28–21 WVU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTTU 32–18 WVU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTTU 35–14 WVU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTTU 39–11 WVU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTTU 42–7 WVU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTTU 46–4 WVU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTTU 49–0 WVU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)TTU 21–21 WVU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTTU 25–18 WVU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTTU 28–14 WVU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTTU 32–11 WVU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTTU 35–7 WVU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTTU 39–4 WVU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTTU 42–0 WVU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)TTU 18–18 WVU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTTU 21–14 WVU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTTU 25–11 WVU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTTU 28–7 WVU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTTU 32–4 WVU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTTU 35–0 WVU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPKTTU +14TTU +28TTU +42TTU +56margin →