AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#5Away
Texas Tech
0-0 · AVR 77.5
37p
#51Home
Cincinnati
0-0 · AVR 54.8
21p
TTU 86%14% CIN
Spread
TTU -15.7
Total
58
Moneyline
TTU-609CIN+609
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TTU advantageevenCIN advantage →
TTU throw
CIN coverage #55CIN pass rush #143
TTU +35
TTU run
TTU backs #1CIN linebackers #76
TTU +51
CIN throw
CIN protection #3
TTU +25
CIN run
CIN backs #64
TTU +17

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting IV
Evan Tengesdahl
vs
A.J. Holmes Jr.
LT · CIN
EDGE · TTU
97.1
97.7
dead even
when CIN throws
Isaiah Johnson
vs
Brice Pollock
X · CIN
CB1 · TTU
64.7
100.7
TTU +36
when TTU runs
Cameron Dickey
vs
Jonathan Thompson
RB · TTU
MLB · CIN
83.8
72.1
TTU +12
when CIN runs
Zylan Perry
vs
Adam Trick
RB · CIN
MLB · TTU
62.9
91.3
TTU +28
over the middle
Terrance Carter Jr.
vs
Antwan Peek Jr.
TE · TTU
FS · CIN
79.4
65.6
TTU +14
when TTU throws
Donte Lee Jr.
vs
Ty Goodwill
X · TTU
CB1 · CIN
67.3
76.9
CIN +10

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Texas Tech
CBBrice Pollock
100.73/1427
LBAdam Trick
91.39/878
LBAdam Hill
90.411/878
CBAshton Hamptonquestionable
84.452/1427
RBCameron Dickey
83.812/514
CBAmier Boyd
83.857/1427

also out — Cash Cleveland (OL)

Cincinnati
STy Goodwill
76.9128/1427
DBMJ Cannon
74.9156/1427
LBJonathan Thompson
72.1122/878
SJasper Beeler
67.8287/1427
QBJC French IV
67.449/308
WRIsaiah Johnson
64.785/777

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Texas Tech
opponent
Cincinnati
home+17.6
Houston#36
-5.6away
home+12.3
Arizona#26
-10.9away
home+24.7
West Virginia#66
+1.5away
away+21.6
Colorado#74
+8.4home

Projected margin

80% between -33 and 2
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTTU +15.795% interval: -39.6 to 8.280% interval: -33.1 to 1.7-33+2TTU wins 86%CIN wins 14%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TTU 35–21 CINCIN 18–60 TTU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCIN 21–56 TTU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCIN 25–53 TTU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCIN 28–49 TTU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCIN 32–46 TTU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCIN 35–42 TTU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCIN 39–39 TTU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCIN 42–35 TTU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCIN 46–32 TTU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCIN 14–56 TTU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCIN 18–53 TTU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCIN 21–49 TTU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCIN 25–46 TTU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCIN 28–42 TTU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCIN 32–39 TTU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCIN 35–35 TTU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCIN 39–32 TTU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCIN 42–28 TTU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 11–53 TTU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCIN 14–49 TTU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCIN 18–46 TTU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCIN 21–42 TTU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCIN 25–39 TTU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCIN 28–35 TTU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCIN 32–32 TTU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCIN 35–28 TTU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCIN 39–25 TTU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 7–49 TTU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCIN 11–46 TTU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCIN 14–42 TTU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCIN 18–39 TTU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCIN 21–35 TTU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesCIN 25–32 TTU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCIN 28–28 TTU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCIN 32–25 TTU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCIN 35–21 TTU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 4–46 TTU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCIN 7–42 TTU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCIN 11–39 TTU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCIN 14–35 TTU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCIN 18–32 TTU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCIN 21–28 TTU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCIN 25–25 TTU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCIN 28–21 TTU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCIN 32–18 TTU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 0–42 TTU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCIN 4–39 TTU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCIN 7–35 TTU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCIN 11–32 TTU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCIN 14–28 TTU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCIN 18–25 TTU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCIN 21–21 TTU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCIN 25–18 TTU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCIN 28–14 TTU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)CIN 0–35 TTU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCIN 4–32 TTU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCIN 7–28 TTU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCIN 11–25 TTU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCIN 14–21 TTU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCIN 18–18 TTU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCIN 21–14 TTU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCIN 25–11 TTU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalTTU +42TTU +28TTU +14PKCIN +14margin →