AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#26Away
Arizona
0-0 · AVR 66.2
22p
#5Home
Texas Tech
0-0 · AVR 77.5
34p
ARIZ 20%80% TTU
Spread
TTU -12.3
Total
56
Moneyline
ARIZ+410TTU-410
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ARIZ advantageevenTTU advantage →
ARIZ throw
TTU +31
ARIZ run
TTU +26
TTU throw
ARIZ coverage #5ARIZ pass rush #91
even
TTU run
TTU backs #1ARIZ front #91
TTU +12

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Fifita
Tristan Bounds
vs
A.J. Holmes Jr.
LT · ARIZ
EDGE · TTU
76.2
97.7
TTU +21
when TTU throws
Donte Lee Jr.
vs
Jay'Vion Cole
X · TTU
CB1 · ARIZ
67.3
101.6
ARIZ +34
when TTU runs
Cameron Dickey
vs
Chase Kennedy
RB · TTU
MLB · ARIZ
83.8
84.0
dead even
over the middle
Terrance Carter Jr.
vs
Johno Price
TE · TTU
FS · ARIZ
79.4
75.7
TTU +4
when ARIZ throws
Giovanni Richardson
vs
Brice Pollock
X · ARIZ
CB1 · TTU
52.5
100.7
TTU +48
over the middle
Cole Rusk
vs
Mikal Harrison-Pilot
TE · ARIZ
FS · TTU
69.2
82.1
TTU +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arizona
CBJay'Vion Cole
101.62/1427
LBChase Kennedy
84.026/878
LBEverett Roussaw Jr.
84.027/878
SGavin Hunter
83.362/1427
SDaylen Austin
75.9141/1427
TECole Rusk
69.212/287
Texas Tech
CBBrice Pollock
100.73/1427
LBAdam Trick
91.39/878
LBAdam Hill
90.411/878
CBAshton Hamptonquestionable
84.452/1427
RBCameron Dickey
83.812/514
CBAmier Boyd
83.857/1427

also out — Cash Cleveland (OL)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Arizona
opponent
Texas Tech
away+9.9
West Virginia#66
+24.7home
home+5.9
TCU#32
+15.7home
home+9.6
Arizona State#43
+19.4home
home+10.9
Cincinnati#51
+15.7away

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTTU +12.395% interval: -11.6 to 36.280% interval: -5 to 29.7-5+30ARIZ wins 20%TTU wins 80%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TTU 35–21 ARIZTTU 32–46 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 35–42 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTTU 39–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTTU 42–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTTU 46–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTTU 49–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTTU 53–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTTU 56–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTTU 60–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTTU 28–42 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTTU 32–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTTU 35–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTTU 39–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTTU 42–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTTU 46–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTTU 49–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTTU 53–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTTU 56–14 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 25–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTTU 28–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTTU 32–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTTU 35–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTTU 39–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTTU 42–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTTU 46–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTTU 49–14 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTTU 53–11 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 21–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTTU 25–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTTU 28–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTTU 32–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTTU 35–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTTU 39–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTTU 42–14 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTTU 46–11 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTTU 49–7 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 18–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTTU 21–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTTU 25–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTTU 28–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTTU 32–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTTU 35–14 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTTU 39–11 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTTU 42–7 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTTU 46–4 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 14–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTTU 18–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTTU 21–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTTU 25–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTTU 28–14 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTTU 32–11 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTTU 35–7 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTTU 39–4 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTTU 42–0 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 11–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 14–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTTU 18–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTTU 21–14 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTTU 25–11 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTTU 28–7 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTTU 32–4 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTTU 35–0 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalARIZ +14PKTTU +14TTU +28TTU +42margin →