AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#126Away
Coastal Carolina
0-0 · AVR 29.6
16p
#55Home
James Madison
0-0 · AVR 53.7
36p
CCU 9%91% JMU
Spread
JMU -19.8
Total
52
Moneyline
CCU+1053JMU-1053
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CCU advantageevenJMU advantage →
CCU throw
CCU WR #42
JMU +15
CCU run
JMU +17
JMU throw
JMU protection #122CCU coverage #123
CCU +18
JMU run
CCU front #36CCU linebackers #129
CCU +30

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CCU throws
Tristian Gardner
vs
DJ Kelly
X · CCU
CB1 · JMU
74.7
87.2
JMU +12
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Daughtry Richardson
vs
Amar Thomas
LT · CCU
EDGE · JMU
47.2
86.0
JMU +39
when CCU runs
Dominic Knicely
vs
Gannon Weathersby
RB · CCU
MLB · JMU
52.0
77.9
JMU +26
when JMU runs
George Pettaway
vs
Tray Brown
RB · JMU
MLB · CCU
53.5
63.6
CCU +10
when JMU throws
Za'Ron Collins
vs
Myles Woods
X · JMU
CB1 · CCU
52.8
54.5
dead even
off the edge· hunting Evans
Tyler Brown
vs
Mitchell Toney
LT · JMU
EDGE · CCU
13.0
82.2
CCU +69

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Coastal Carolina
WRTristian Gardner
74.734/777
LBTray Brown
63.6230/878
DBMyles Woods
54.5635/1427
WRClayton Coppock Jr.
53.9195/777
QBTrever Jackson
52.9125/308
RBDominic Knicely
52.0233/514
James Madison
CBDJ Kelly
87.226/1427
SKJ Flowe
84.649/1427
LBGannon Weathersby
77.983/878
SJoshua Prince
69.4256/1427
LBLee Johnson
64.8219/878
LBJayden Studio
58.8316/878

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Coastal Carolina
opponent
James Madison
home-6.7
Liberty#106
+18.4home
away-3.0
Georgia State#131
+19.3home
away-14.1
Marshall#83
+8.2home
home-9.8
Old Dominion#76
+2.5away
home-2.3
Georgia Southern#117
+9.9away
home-4.2
App State#103
+8.0away

Projected margin

80% between 2 and 38
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKJMU +19.895% interval: -4.8 to 44.380% interval: 1.9 to 37.6+2+38CCU wins 9%JMU wins 91%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ JMU 35–14 CCUJMU 32–39 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJMU 35–35 CCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesJMU 39–32 CCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJMU 42–28 CCU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesJMU 46–25 CCU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesJMU 49–21 CCU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesJMU 53–18 CCU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesJMU 56–14 CCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJMU 60–11 CCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJMU 28–35 CCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJMU 32–32 CCU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesJMU 35–28 CCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJMU 39–25 CCU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesJMU 42–21 CCU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesJMU 46–18 CCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesJMU 49–14 CCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJMU 53–11 CCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesJMU 56–7 CCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJMU 25–32 CCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJMU 28–28 CCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJMU 32–25 CCU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesJMU 35–21 CCU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesJMU 39–18 CCU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesJMU 42–14 CCU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesJMU 46–11 CCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesJMU 49–7 CCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesJMU 53–4 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJMU 21–28 CCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJMU 25–25 CCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJMU 28–21 CCU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesJMU 32–18 CCU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesJMU 35–14 CCU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesJMU 39–11 CCU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesJMU 42–7 CCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesJMU 46–4 CCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesJMU 49–0 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJMU 18–25 CCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJMU 21–21 CCU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesJMU 25–18 CCU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesJMU 28–14 CCU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesJMU 32–11 CCU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesJMU 35–7 CCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesJMU 39–4 CCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJMU 42–0 CCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)JMU 14–21 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJMU 18–18 CCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesJMU 21–14 CCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJMU 25–11 CCU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesJMU 28–7 CCU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesJMU 32–4 CCU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesJMU 35–0 CCU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)JMU 11–18 CCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJMU 14–14 CCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJMU 18–11 CCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJMU 21–7 CCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJMU 25–4 CCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesJMU 28–0 CCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalCCU +7JMU +7JMU +21JMU +35JMU +49margin →