AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Tue Nov 24 · 5:00 AM
#91Away
Miami (OH)
0-0 · AVR 43.0
22p
#84Home
Western Michigan
0-0 · AVR 45.6
28p
M-OH 35%65% WMU
Spread
WMU -5.9
Total
50
Moneyline
M-OH+184WMU-184
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← M-OH advantageevenWMU advantage →
M-OH throw
WMU +46
M-OH run
M-OH backs #143WMU linebackers #114
WMU +22
WMU throw
WMU WR #137WMU protection #19
M-OH +44
WMU run
M-OH +4

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when WMU runs
Jalen Buckley
vs
Malcolm McCain
RB · WMU
MLB · M-OH
62.8
82.1
M-OH +19
off the edge· hunting Lowry
Hunter Whitenack
vs
Bai Jobe
LT · WMU
EDGE · M-OH
72.2
71.1
dead even
when WMU throws
Aveion Chenault
vs
Ben Minich
X · WMU
CB1 · M-OH
47.0
88.7
M-OH +42
off the edge· hunting Gotkowski
Evan Malcore
vs
August Johanningsmeier
LT · M-OH
EDGE · WMU
54.0
81.6
WMU +28
when M-OH throws
Leo Scheidler
vs
Daeh McCullough
X · M-OH
CB1 · WMU
55.3
78.2
WMU +23
over the middle
Christian Ross
vs
Joshua Franklin
TE · M-OH
FS · WMU
58.9
67.3
WMU +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Miami (OH)
DBBen Minich
88.719/1427
DBAmariyun Knighten
84.451/1427
LBMalcolm McCain
82.142/878
DBJosh Ringer
81.378/1427
LBLuke Myers
76.492/878
TEChristian Ross
58.965/287
Western Michigan
SDaeh McCullough
78.2111/1427
CBJarvarius Sims
77.0126/1427
SJoey Pope
68.7269/1427
RBJalen Buckley
62.887/514
LBDomanick Moon
56.5363/878
QBBroc Lowry
53.1120/308

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Miami (OH)
opponent
Western Michigan
away+6.6
Kent State#128
+15.0home
away+0.9
Central Michigan#107
+4.3away
home+6.1
Bowling Green#114
+9.4home
home+8.1
Buffalo#116
+6.4away
home+7.5
Akron#115
+5.9away

Projected margin

80% between -12 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWMU +5.995% interval: -18.7 to 30.480% interval: -12 to 23.7-12+24M-OH wins 35%WMU wins 65%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WMU 28–21 M-OHWMU 25–46 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 28–42 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWMU 32–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWMU 35–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWMU 39–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWMU 42–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWMU 46–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWMU 49–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWMU 53–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWMU 21–42 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWMU 25–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWMU 28–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWMU 32–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWMU 35–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWMU 39–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWMU 42–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWMU 46–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWMU 49–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 18–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWMU 21–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWMU 25–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWMU 28–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWMU 32–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWMU 35–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWMU 39–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWMU 42–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWMU 46–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 14–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWMU 18–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWMU 21–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWMU 25–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWMU 28–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWMU 32–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWMU 35–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWMU 39–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWMU 42–7 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWMU 11–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWMU 14–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWMU 18–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWMU 21–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWMU 25–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWMU 28–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWMU 32–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWMU 35–7 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWMU 39–4 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 7–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWMU 11–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWMU 14–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWMU 18–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWMU 21–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWMU 25–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWMU 28–7 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWMU 32–4 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWMU 35–0 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 4–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 7–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWMU 11–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWMU 14–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWMU 18–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWMU 21–7 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWMU 25–4 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWMU 28–0 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalM-OH +21M-OH +7WMU +7WMU +21WMU +35margin →