AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#110Away
Tulsa
0-0 · AVR 35.4
21p
#62Home
UTSA
0-0 · AVR 50.5
36p
TLSA 16%84% UTSA
Spread
UTSA -14.7
Total
57
Moneyline
TLSA+528UTSA-528
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TLSA advantageevenUTSA advantage →
TLSA throw
UTSA +9
TLSA run
TLSA line #95TLSA backs #36
UTSA +17
UTSA throw
UTSA protection #91
UTSA +11
UTSA run
UTSA backs #44
TLSA +6

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UTSA runs
Will Henderson III
vs
Chris Thompson Jr.
RB · UTSA
MLB · TLSA
74.5
78.3
TLSA +4
when TLSA runs
Trequan Jones
vs
Camron Cooper
RB · TLSA
MLB · UTSA
69.0
81.6
UTSA +13
when UTSA throws
AJ Wilson Jr.
vs
Elijah Green
X · UTSA
CB1 · TLSA
72.9
72.9
dead even
off the edge· hunting Hayes
Malachi Preciado
vs
Eddy Smith
LT · TLSA
EDGE · UTSA
69.1
62.9
TLSA +6
when TLSA throws
Jimmy Calloway
vs
Joel Rogers
X · TLSA
CB1 · UTSA
53.4
76.0
UTSA +23
off the edge· hunting McCown
Jonah Miller
vs
Thomas Davis
LT · UTSA
EDGE · TLSA
48.7
79.7
TLSA +31

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Tulsa
LBChris Thompson Jr.
78.374/878
CBElijah Green
72.9178/1427
RBTrequan Jones
69.059/514
SZach Williams
62.2422/1427
DBDevin Robinson
62.1425/1427
LBDevin Hightower
58.9313/878
UTSA
LBCamron Cooper
81.644/878
LBElijah Baldwin
76.393/878
SJoel Rogers
76.0139/1427
RBWill Henderson III
74.536/514
WRAJ Wilson Jr.
72.940/777
QBOwen McCown
69.141/308

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Tulsa
opponent
UTSA
away-8.0
Navy#82
+9.2home
home-5.1
North Texas#80
+7.2home
away-8.4
Tulane#88
+3.9away
away+2.1
Rice#127
+14.3away
home+1.5
Florida Atlantic#108
+8.7away

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 33
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUTSA +14.795% interval: -9.8 to 39.380% interval: -3.1 to 32.6-3+33TLSA wins 16%UTSA wins 84%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTSA 35–21 TLSAUTSA 32–46 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTSA 35–42 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTSA 39–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTSA 42–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTSA 46–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTSA 49–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTSA 53–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTSA 56–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTSA 60–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTSA 28–42 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTSA 32–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTSA 35–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTSA 39–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTSA 42–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTSA 46–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTSA 49–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTSA 53–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTSA 56–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTSA 25–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTSA 28–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTSA 32–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTSA 35–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTSA 39–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUTSA 42–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTSA 46–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTSA 49–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTSA 53–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTSA 21–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTSA 25–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTSA 28–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTSA 32–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTSA 35–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUTSA 39–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUTSA 42–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTSA 46–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTSA 49–7 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTSA 18–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTSA 21–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTSA 25–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTSA 28–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTSA 32–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUTSA 35–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTSA 39–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTSA 42–7 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTSA 46–4 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTSA 14–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTSA 18–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTSA 21–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTSA 25–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTSA 28–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUTSA 32–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTSA 35–7 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTSA 39–4 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTSA 42–0 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTSA 11–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTSA 14–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTSA 18–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTSA 21–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTSA 25–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTSA 28–7 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTSA 32–4 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUTSA 35–0 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalTLSA +14PKUTSA +14UTSA +28UTSA +42margin →