CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
TLSA 21.0%79.0% UTSA
Projected margin
UTSA by 12.8
Projected total
56
80% outcome range
TLSA 6 to UTSA 31
Win probability
UTSA 79.0%

Current team profiles

Tulsa
UTSA

When Tulsa has the ball

Passing

UTSA defense
Higher-ranked profile
TLSA offense
#108
UTSA defense
#60
EPA comparison
0.09
#108
0.11
#60
Pass EPA

Rushing

TLSA offense
Higher-ranked profile
TLSA offense
#21
UTSA defense
#93
EPA comparison
0.23
#21
0.10
#93
Rush EPA

Drive success

UTSA defense
Higher-ranked profile
TLSA offense
#117
UTSA defense
#80
Success rates
39%
#117
41%
#80
Success rate
More metrics
0.14
#74
0.06
#68
EPA / play
1.22
#78
1.15
#34
Explosiveness
15%
#69
13%
#119
Havoc

When UTSA has the ball

Passing

UTSA offense
Higher-ranked profile
TLSA defense
#82
UTSA offense
#78
EPA comparison
0.18
#82
0.19
#78
Pass EPA

Rushing

UTSA offense
Higher-ranked profile
TLSA defense
#41
UTSA offense
#12
EPA comparison
-0.01
#41
0.26
#12
Rush EPA

Drive success

UTSA offense
Higher-ranked profile
TLSA defense
#74
UTSA offense
#38
Success rates
41%
#74
47%
#38
Success rate
More metrics
0.03
#54
0.23
#34
EPA / play
1.14
#29
1.14
#114
Explosiveness
13%
#116
12%
#27
Havoc

Current key players

Tulsa
QBDexter Williams II
340 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
64.2222/729
RBSeth Davis
90 yds · 1 TD · 10.0 YPC
88.714/1044
TEJackson Shockley
1 rec · 22 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
48.5
Run blocking
65.5
Penalties
0
87.18/1017
DBDevin Robinson
19 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
80.6
Coverage
76.0
Targets allowed
13
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
62
Passer rating allowed
92.5
Missed tackles
3
79.077/2969
LBDax Collins
39 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 2.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
84.8
Coverage
58.3
Pressures
12
Pass-rush snaps
24
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
76.7146/1796
CBCaldra Williford
16 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.4
Coverage
74.2
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
65
Passer rating allowed
158.3
Missed tackles
2
75.4178/2969
Availability reports · 2
  • Jimmy Calloway · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Calloway is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against the Owls on Saturday, Octob

  • Grayson Tempest · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Tempest is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against the Owls on Saturday, Octobe

UTSA
QBMark Wiepert
— yds · — TD · — INT
68.6178/729
RBA'Marion Peterson
194 yds · 4 TD · 7.2 YPC
89.212/1044
LBCamron Cooper
14 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.6
Coverage
72.1
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
92
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
77.5127/1796
CBZach Morris
9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
71.9
Coverage
75.4
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
65
Passer rating allowed
48.8
Missed tackles
1
76.4146/2969
WRDJ Allen Jr.
18 rec · 269 yds · 2 TD
76.0109/2069
LBBrandon Tucker
44 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.3
Coverage
57.1
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
16
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
73.2252/1796
Availability reports · 1
  • Bryson Donnell · RBout · 2026-10-10

    Donnell has been out of lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

TLSA
UTSA
vs
Offense
64.2
#121 of 138
QB
68.6
#107 of 138
84.4
#13 of 138
RB
84.7
#11 of 138
67.0
#120 of 138
WR
68.5
#100 of 138
87.1
#8 of 138
TE
64.0
#96 of 138
68.5
#64 of 138
OL
65.0
#95 of 138
Defense
73.1
#68 of 138
DL
69.5
#113 of 138
71.4
#93 of 138
LB
73.9
#71 of 138
74.5
#41 of 138
DB
70.1
#97 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Tulsa
opponent
UTSA
A-8.0
NAVY#93
+7.7H
A-10.1
TULN#85
0.0A
H-1.0
UNT#64
+5.2H
H+3.3
FAU#88
+8.1A
A+0.2
RICE#133
+2.0A