CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 9:00 PM ET
Fremont Cannon
Forecast win probability
NEV 21.8%78.2% UNLV
Projected margin
UNLV by 12.3
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
NEV 6 to UNLV 31
Win probability
UNLV 78.2%

Current team profiles

Nevada
UNLV

When Nevada has the ball

Passing

UNLV defense
Higher-ranked profile
NEV offense
#122
UNLV defense
#38
EPA comparison
0.02
#122
0.06
#38
Pass EPA

Rushing

NEV offense
Higher-ranked profile
NEV offense
#35
UNLV defense
#68
EPA comparison
0.19
#35
0.04
#68
Rush EPA

Drive success

UNLV defense
Higher-ranked profile
NEV offense
#87
UNLV defense
#50
Success rates
42%
#87
38%
#50
Success rate
More metrics
0.10
#87
0.02
#50
EPA / play
1.25
#57
1.24
#80
Explosiveness
14%
#45
17%
#49
Havoc

When UNLV has the ball

Passing

NEV defense
Higher-ranked profile
NEV defense
#82
UNLV offense
#101
EPA comparison
0.18
#82
0.11
#101
Pass EPA

Rushing

UNLV offense
Higher-ranked profile
NEV defense
#102
UNLV offense
#88
EPA comparison
0.13
#102
0.06
#88
Rush EPA

Drive success

NEV defense
Higher-ranked profile
NEV defense
#60
UNLV offense
#126
Success rates
39%
#60
37%
#126
Success rate
More metrics
0.12
#93
0.06
#104
EPA / play
1.18
#48
1.26
#49
Explosiveness
13%
#122
16%
#88
Havoc

Current key players

Nevada
QBAJ Bianco
116 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT
71.3145/729
DBTajean Stallworth
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
49.9
Coverage
52.3
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
6
Passer rating allowed
91.7
Missed tackles
1
90.77/2969
TETrace Estes
1 rec · 37 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Penalties
0
89.93/1017
WRDon Henry
1 rec · 28 yds · 0 TD
82.338/2069
LBEJ Smith
56 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 1.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
87.3
Coverage
63.4
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
11
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
80.874/1796
RBHerschel Turner
234 yds · 3 TD · 6.0 YPC
77.1131/1044
UNLV
QBJackson Arnold
1068 yds · 8 TD · 0 INT
78.978/729
DBDenver Harris
18 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.6
Coverage
79.9
Targets allowed
17
Rec allowed
13
Yards allowed
158
Passer rating allowed
104.5
Missed tackles
4
78.094/2969
TEJae Beasley II
2 rec · 31 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
75.7
Run blocking
78.5
Penalties
1
75.544/1017
DBAvery Helm
8 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.3
Coverage
71.5
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
35
Passer rating allowed
87.5
Missed tackles
0
72.1319/2969
WRTaz Reddicks
14 rec · 272 yds · 2 TD
71.8200/2069
RBKamran Williams
15 yds · 0 TD · 5.0 YPC
71.0287/1044
Availability reports · 2
  • Taeshaun Lyons · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Lyons is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Falcons on Sunday, October 17th.

  • DeAngelo Irvin Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Irvin Jr. is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Falcons on Sunday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

NEV
UNLV
vs
Offense
71.3
#98 of 138
QB
78.9
#61 of 138
76.4
#61 of 138
RB
70.9
#112 of 138
69.2
#91 of 138
WR
68.3
#101 of 138
89.9
#3 of 138
TE
75.5
#35 of 138
65.0
#94 of 138
OL
61.0
#128 of 138
Defense
67.7
#126 of 138
DL
70.2
#105 of 138
74.5
#65 of 138
LB
64.2
#135 of 138
72.7
#60 of 138
DB
70.0
#98 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Nevada
opponent
UNLV
A-14.8
NDSU#61
+6.0H
A+5.2
NIU#145
+20.1H
H+1.1
HAW#135
+15.0A
H-3.0
AF#74
+3.3A
H+3.6
SJSU#123
+7.9A
H-13.4
UNM#33
-9.2A