AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sun Nov 29 · 2:00 AM
Fremont Cannon
#120Away
Nevada
0-0 · AVR 32.0
21p
#70Home
UNLV
0-0 · AVR 48.6
37p
NEV 14%87% UNLV
Spread
UNLV -16.0
Total
57
Moneyline
NEV+641UNLV-641
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NEV advantageevenUNLV advantage →
NEV throw
NEV WR #150
UNLV +16
NEV run
NEV backs #144
UNLV +4
UNLV throw
NEV +8
UNLV run
UNLV line #81UNLV backs #27
UNLV +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Arnold
Griffin Scroggs
vs
Dylan LaBarbera
LT · UNLV
EDGE · NEV
60.0
97.8
NEV +38
when UNLV runs
Jai'Den Thomas
vs
Jeremy Naborne-Owens
RB · UNLV
MLB · NEV
79.8
54.5
UNLV +25
off the edge· hunting Jones
Jack Foster
vs
Andre Porter
LT · NEV
EDGE · UNLV
47.9
71.7
UNLV +24
when UNLV throws
Kayden McGee
vs
Bryson Snelling
X · UNLV
CB1 · NEV
53.6
64.8
NEV +11
over the middle
Matt Byrnes
vs
Zavien Abercrombie
TE · UNLV
FS · NEV
58.4
49.3
UNLV +9
when NEV throws
Daijon Calimon
vs
Quandarius Keyes
X · NEV
CB1 · UNLV
36.8
68.9
UNLV +32

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Nevada
DBBryson Snelling
64.8363/1427
DBJaylen Webb
64.7368/1427
DBBishop Turner
61.3449/1427
LBJeremy Naborne-Owens
54.5401/878
QBCarter Jones
54.3106/308
LBPoasa Utu
54.2403/878
UNLV
RBJai'Den Thomas
79.823/514
DBQuandarius Keyes
68.9264/1427
DBTre Fulton
61.6439/1427
TEMatt Byrnes
58.466/287
QBJackson Arnold
56.883/308
DBTony-Louis Nkuba
56.2586/1427

also out — Cohen Fuller (DL)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Nevada
opponent
UNLV
away-11.9
North Dakota State#81
+6.6home
away+3.3
Northern Illinois#134
+21.8home
home-4.6
Air Force#98
+3.9away
home+4.2
San José State#123
+12.7away
home-4.8
New Mexico#86
+3.7away
home-6.0
Hawai'i#90
-7.7away

Projected margin

80% between -2 and 34
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNLV +16.095% interval: -8.6 to 40.680% interval: -1.9 to 33.9-2+34NEV wins 14%UNLV wins 87%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNLV 35–21 NEVUNLV 32–46 NEV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNLV 35–42 NEV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNLV 39–39 NEV neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNLV 42–35 NEV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNLV 46–32 NEV neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNLV 49–28 NEV neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNLV 53–25 NEV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNLV 56–21 NEV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNLV 60–18 NEV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNLV 28–42 NEV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 32–39 NEV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNLV 35–35 NEV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNLV 39–32 NEV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNLV 42–28 NEV neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNLV 46–25 NEV neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNLV 49–21 NEV neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNLV 53–18 NEV neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNLV 56–14 NEV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNLV 25–39 NEV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 28–35 NEV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNLV 32–32 NEV neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNLV 35–28 NEV neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNLV 39–25 NEV neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNLV 42–21 NEV neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNLV 46–18 NEV neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNLV 49–14 NEV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNLV 53–11 NEV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNLV 21–35 NEV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 25–32 NEV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNLV 28–28 NEV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNLV 32–25 NEV neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNLV 35–21 NEV neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUNLV 39–18 NEV neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNLV 42–14 NEV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNLV 46–11 NEV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNLV 49–7 NEV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNLV 18–32 NEV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 21–28 NEV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNLV 25–25 NEV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNLV 28–21 NEV neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNLV 32–18 NEV neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNLV 35–14 NEV neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNLV 39–11 NEV neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNLV 42–7 NEV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNLV 46–4 NEV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNLV 14–28 NEV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNLV 18–25 NEV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNLV 21–21 NEV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNLV 25–18 NEV neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNLV 28–14 NEV neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNLV 32–11 NEV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNLV 35–7 NEV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNLV 39–4 NEV neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNLV 42–0 NEV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNLV 11–25 NEV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNLV 14–21 NEV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNLV 18–18 NEV neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNLV 21–14 NEV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNLV 25–11 NEV neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNLV 28–7 NEV neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNLV 32–4 NEV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNLV 35–0 NEV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalNEV +14PKUNLV +14UNLV +28UNLV +42margin →