CFB
Model
All rankings
Mountain West

UNLV

Rebels4-24th in Mountain West
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV · 65,000
TeamCarried by the defense
OffenseBoom-or-bust · weakweak point: staying on schedule, 126th
DefenseBuilt to defend the pass · solid

The season

Best win
W 13-7 vs #61 North Dakota State
Wk 6 · Oct 10 · won as a 38% underdog
Worst loss
L 21-27 vs #70 Memphis
Wk 1 · Aug 29 · model had 39%

Schedule

model 4/6 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Aug 29
    vsMemphis
    L 21–27
    Win chance 39%Model margin -4.0Game details
  2. Week 1 · Sep 5
    atHawai'i
    W 21–6
    Win chance 44%Model margin -2.2Game details
  3. Week 2 · Sep 12
    atNorth Texas
    L 6–44
    Win chance 48%Model margin -0.7Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    atAkron
    W 38–10
    Win chance 64%Model margin +4.7Game details
  5. Week 5 · Oct 3
    vsCalifornia
    W 39–31
    Win chance 52%Model margin +0.7Game details
  6. Week 6 · Oct 10
    vsNorth Dakota State
    W 13–7
    Win chance 38%Model margin -4.0Game details
  7. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atAir Force
    Win chance 60%Model margin +3.3Game details
  8. Week 9 · Nov 1
    vsNorthern Illinois
    Win chance 93%Model margin +20.1Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 8
    vsWyoming
    Win chance 83%Model margin +12.8Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 15
    atNew Mexico
    Win chance 25%Model margin -9.2Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 22
    atSan José State
    Win chance 72%Model margin +7.9Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 29
    vsNevada
    Win chance 82%Model margin +12.3Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
33
#102 of 138
Defense efficiency
64
#46 of 138
Efficiency
#1040.06
EPA / play
#500.02
#1010.11
Pass
#380.06
#880.06
Rush
#680.04
#12637%
Success
#5038%
Big plays & havoc
#491.26
Explosive
#801.24
#8816%
Havoc
#4917%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB61st
RB112th
WR101st
TE35th
OL128th
DL105th
LB135th
DB98th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Jackson ArnoldSR
1068 yds · 8 TD · 0 INT
78.9
78th QB
RB
Kamran WilliamsFR
15 yds · 0 TD · 5.0 YPC
71.0
287th RB
WR
Taz ReddicksJR
14 rec · 272 yds · 2 TD
71.8
200th WR
WR
Kayden McGeeSO
8 rec · 188 yds · 2 TD
69.0
304th WR
TE
Jae Beasley IIJR
2 rec · 31 yds · 0 TD
75.5
44th TE
Defense
LB
Elias RudolphSO
8 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
69.7
380th LB
LB
Dee CraytonSR
16 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
62.1
758th LB
DB
Denver HarrisSR
18 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
78.0
94th DB
DB
Avery HelmSR
8 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
72.1
319th DB
DB
Tre FultonSO
37 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
70.6
408th DB

Injury report

2 listed
Ques.
Taeshaun LyonsWR

Lyons is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Falcons on Sunday, October 17th.

64.210-11
Ques.
DeAngelo Irvin Jr.WR

Irvin Jr. is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Falcons on Sunday, October 17th.

60.810-11

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atAir Force
    Playoff chance if win
    0.8%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.2%
  2. Week 10 · Nov 8
    vsWyoming
    Playoff chance if win
    0.7%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  3. Week 11 · Nov 15
    atNew Mexico
    Playoff chance if win
    1.4%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.2%
  4. Week 12 · Nov 22
    atSan José State
    Playoff chance if win
    0.7%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  5. Week 13 · Nov 29
    vsNevada
    Playoff chance if win
    0.7%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%

Past seasons

Year by year
+8.3 points since 2022
304355688049.1202255.6202365.1202457.42025
2022 49.12023 55.62024 65.12025 57.4

2025

10-3
D-I rank
#79
Rating
57.4
Listed games · 13
WWWWWWLLWWWWL
467 pts scored375 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Idaho StateW 38–31
  2. W1 vs Sam HoustonW 38–21
  3. W2 vs UCLAW 30–23
  4. W4 at Miami (OH)W 41–38
  5. W6 at WyomingW 31–17
  6. W7 vs Air ForceW 51–48
  7. W8 at Boise StateL 31–56
  8. W10 vs New MexicoL 35–40
  9. W11 at Colorado StateW 42–10
  10. W12 vs Utah StateW 29–26
  11. W13 vs Hawai'iW 38–10
  12. W14 at NevadaW 42–17
  13. W15 at Boise StateL 21–38

2024

10-3
D-I rank
#52
Rating
65.1
Listed games · 13
WWWWLWWLWWWWL
471 pts scored285 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at HoustonW 27–7
  2. W2 vs Utah TechW 72–14
  3. W3 vs KansasW 23–20
  4. W5 vs Fresno StateW 59–14
  5. W6 vs SyracuseL 41–44
  6. W7 at Utah StateW 50–34
  7. W8 at Oregon StateW 33–25
  8. W9 vs Boise StateL 24–29
  9. W11 at Hawai'iW 29–27
  10. W12 vs San Diego StateW 41–20
  11. W13 at San José StateW 27–16
  12. W14 vs NevadaW 38–14
  13. W15 at Boise StateL 7–21

2023

9-4
D-I rank
#88
Rating
55.6
Listed games · 13
WLWWWWWLWWWLL
446 pts scored351 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs BryantW 44–14
  2. W2 at MichiganL 7–35
  3. W3 vs VanderbiltW 40–37
  4. W4 at UTEPW 45–28
  5. W5 vs Hawai'iW 44–20
  6. W7 at NevadaW 45–27
  7. W8 vs Colorado StateW 25–23
  8. W9 at Fresno StateL 24–31
  9. W10 at New MexicoW 56–14
  10. W11 vs WyomingW 34–14
  11. W12 at Air ForceW 31–27
  12. W13 vs San José StateL 31–37
  13. W14 vs Boise StateL 20–44

2022

5-7
D-I rank
#133
Rating
49.1
Listed games · 12
WLWWWLLLLLLW
316 pts scored342 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Idaho StateW 52–21
  2. W2 at CaliforniaL 14–20
  3. W3 vs North TexasW 58–27
  4. W4 at Utah StateW 34–24
  5. W5 vs New MexicoW 31–20
  6. W6 at San José StateL 7–40
  7. W7 vs Air ForceL 7–42
  8. W8 at Notre DameL 21–44
  9. W10 at San Diego StateL 10–14
  10. W11 vs Fresno StateL 30–37
  11. W12 at Hawai'iL 25–31
  12. W13 vs NevadaW 27–22