AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sun Nov 15 · 12:30 AM
#70Away
UNLV
0-0 · AVR 48.6
32p
#86Home
New Mexico
0-0 · AVR 44.7
28p
UNLV 60%40% UNM
Spread
UNLV -3.7
Total
60
Moneyline
UNLV-152UNM+152
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNLV advantageevenUNM advantage →
UNLV throw
UNM +16
UNLV run
UNLV line #81UNLV backs #27
UNM +19
UNM throw
UNM QB #33UNM WR #117
UNM +10
UNM run
UNM +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UNLV runs
Jai'Den Thomas
vs
Jaxton Eck
RB · UNLV
MLB · UNM
79.8
83.1
UNM +3
off the edge· hunting Arnold
Griffin Scroggs
vs
Darren Agu
LT · UNLV
EDGE · UNM
60.0
77.3
UNM +17
when UNLV throws
Kayden McGee
vs
Austin Brawley
X · UNLV
CB1 · UNM
53.6
78.7
UNM +25
when UNM throws
Troy Omeire
vs
Quandarius Keyes
X · UNM
CB1 · UNLV
49.6
68.9
UNLV +19
over the middle
Matt Byrnes
vs
Tavian Combs
TE · UNLV
FS · UNM
58.4
58.6
dead even
over the middle
Cade Keith
vs
Mumu Bin-Wahad
TE · UNM
FS · UNLV
58.0
55.0
UNM +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UNLV
RBJai'Den Thomas
79.823/514
DBQuandarius Keyes
68.9264/1427
DBTre Fulton
61.6439/1427
TEMatt Byrnes
58.466/287
QBJackson Arnold
56.883/308
DBTony-Louis Nkuba
56.2586/1427

also out — Cohen Fuller (DL)

New Mexico
LBJaxton Eckprobable
83.133/878
SAustin Brawleyprobable
78.7104/1427
LBMercury Swaim
77.884/878
QBJack Layne
72.433/308
SDrew Speech
63.2403/1427
CBFrankie Edwards III
60.4472/1427

also out — J. Olsen (TE), J. Layne (QB)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UNLV
opponent
New Mexico
home+15.3
Wyoming#119
+4.1away
home+16.0
Nevada#120
+4.8away
home+6.6
North Dakota State#81
+0.4home
away+12.7
San José State#123
+6.5away
away-7.7
Hawai'i#90
-3.6away
away+3.9
Air Force#98
+2.7home

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNLV +3.795% interval: -27.6 to 20.280% interval: -21.1 to 13.7-21+14UNLV wins 60%UNM wins 40%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNLV 35–28 UNMUNM 25–60 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUNM 28–56 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNM 32–53 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNM 35–49 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNM 39–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNM 42–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNM 46–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNM 49–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNM 53–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNM 21–56 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNM 25–53 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNM 28–49 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNM 32–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNM 35–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNM 39–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNM 42–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNM 46–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNM 49–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNM 18–53 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNM 21–49 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNM 25–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNM 28–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNM 32–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNM 35–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNM 39–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNM 42–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNM 46–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNM 14–49 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNM 18–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNM 21–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNM 25–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNM 28–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNM 32–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNM 35–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNM 39–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNM 42–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNM 11–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNM 14–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNM 18–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNM 21–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNM 25–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNM 28–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNM 32–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNM 35–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNM 39–18 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNM 7–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNM 11–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNM 14–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNM 18–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNM 21–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNM 25–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNM 28–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNM 32–18 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNM 35–14 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNM 4–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUNM 7–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNM 11–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNM 14–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNM 18–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNM 21–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNM 25–18 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNM 28–14 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNM 32–11 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomes84777063564942totalUNLV +35UNLV +21UNLV +7UNM +7UNM +21margin →