CFB
Model
All rankings
Mountain West

New Mexico

Lobos4-11st in Mountain West
University Stadium (NM) · Albuquerque, NM · 39,224
TeamCarried by the defense · outplaying the roster
OffenseRunning attack · solidweak point: passing game, 101st
DefenseHavoc-driven · eliteweak point: big plays allowed, 136th

The season

Best win
W 42-18 @ #120 New Mexico State
Wk 4 · Sep 26 · model had 86%
Worst loss
L 6-14 @ #19 Oklahoma
Wk 3 · Sep 19 · model had 6%

Schedule

model 5/5 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Sep 5
    vsCentral Michigan
    W 38–7
    Win chance 61%Model margin +3.9Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 12
    vsMercyhurst
    W 70–7
    Win chance >99%Model margin +44.3Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    atOklahoma
    L 6–14
    Win chance 6%Model margin -20.6Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    atNew Mexico State
    W 42–18
    Win chance 86%Model margin +14.8Game details
  5. Week 5 · Oct 3
    vsUTEP
    W 61–7
    Win chance 96%Model margin +23.5Game details
  6. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atHawai'i
    Win chance 81%Model margin +11.9Game details
  7. Week 8 · Oct 25
    vsNorth Dakota State
    Win chance 69%Model margin +6.7Game details
  8. Week 9 · Oct 31
    atSan José State
    Win chance 86%Model margin +14.4Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atNevada
    Win chance 84%Model margin +13.4Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 15
    vsUNLV
    Win chance 75%Model margin +9.2Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 22
    atWyoming
    Win chance 85%Model margin +14.0Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 28
    vsAir Force
    Win chance 87%Model margin +15.1Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
57
#53 of 138
Defense efficiency
100
#1 of 138
Efficiency
#520.19
EPA / play
#2-0.18
#1010.11
Pass
#13-0.06
#120.26
Rush
#18-0.10
#7343%
Success
#131%
Big plays & havoc
#521.26
Explosive
#1361.46
#2412%
Havoc
#126%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB8th
RB41st
WR123rd
TE55th
OL29th
DL48th
LB60th
DB6th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
James LaubsteinSR
0 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
91.2
9th QB
RB
Kiefer SibleyJR
205 yds · 2 TD · 5.4 YPC
80.0
82nd RB
WR
Massiah MingoFR
5 rec · 56 yds · 0 TD
71.5
215th WR
WR
Bailen GeorgeFR
11 rec · 218 yds · 3 TD
67.5
360th WR
TE
Enrique ZatarainFR
— rec · — yds · — TD
71.3
74th TE
Defense
LB
Mercury SwaimSR
25 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
77.1
136th LB
LB
Jaxton EckSR
25 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
77.1
138th LB
CB
Joshua BarnesJR
1 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
91.6
4th DB
CB
Jahmir TorresSO
8 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
76.8
133rd DB
S
Tavian CombsSR
20 tkl · 0 PD · 3 INT
76.7
135th DB

Injury report

7 out
out
Massiah MingoWR

Mingo is nursing with a foot injury, and he is not projected to face against the Aggies on Saturday.

71.509-26
out
Tripp WalshTE

Walsh is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

54.510-01
out
Troy OmeireWR

Omeire is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

50.310-02
out
Joey OlsenTE

Olsen is battling with a knee ACL injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

47.6202508-11
out
Jack LayneQB

Layne is laid up with an elbow injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

76.2202508-27
out
Abraham WilliamsWR

Williams is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

—09-20
out
Shawn MillerWR

Miller is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

53.2202510-01
Ques.
Darrion BowersRB

Bowers is battling with an undisclsoed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against New Mexico State on Saturday.

63.809-20

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atHawai'i
    Playoff chance if win
    15.3%
    Playoff chance if loss
    6.1%
  2. Week 8 · Oct 25
    vsNorth Dakota State
    Playoff chance if win
    16.6%
    Playoff chance if loss
    6.7%
  3. Week 9 · Oct 31
    atSan José State
    Playoff chance if win
    15.0%
    Playoff chance if loss
    5.5%
  4. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atNevada
    Playoff chance if win
    15.1%
    Playoff chance if loss
    5.8%
  5. Week 11 · Nov 15
    vsUNLV
    Playoff chance if win
    16.5%
    Playoff chance if loss
    5.1%
  6. Week 12 · Nov 22
    atWyoming
    Playoff chance if win
    15.1%
    Playoff chance if loss
    5.2%
  7. Week 13 · Nov 28
    vsAir Force
    Playoff chance if win
    15.0%
    Playoff chance if loss
    4.4%

Past seasons

Year by year
+17.8 points since 2022
203345587039.9202242.1202349.3202457.82025
2022 39.92023 42.12024 49.32025 57.8

2025

9-3
D-I rank
#77
Rating
57.8
Listed games · 12
LWWWLLWWWWWW
335 pts scored270 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at MichiganL 17–34
  2. W2 vs Idaho StateW 32–22
  3. W3 at UCLAW 35–10
  4. W5 vs New Mexico StateW 38–20
  5. W6 at San José StateL 28–35
  6. W7 at Boise StateL 25–41
  7. W8 vs NevadaW 24–22
  8. W9 vs Utah StateW 33–14
  9. W10 at UNLVW 40–35
  10. W12 vs Colorado StateW 20–17
  11. W13 at Air ForceW 20–3
  12. W14 vs San Diego StateW 23–17

2024

5-7
D-I rank
#125
Rating
49.3
Listed games · 12
LLLLWWWLLWWL
402 pts scored456 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Montana StateL 31–35
  2. W1 at ArizonaL 39–61
  3. W3 at AuburnL 19–45
  4. W4 vs Fresno StateL 21–38
  5. W5 at New Mexico StateW 50–40
  6. W7 vs Air ForceW 52–37
  7. W8 at Utah StateW 50–45
  8. W9 at Colorado StateL 6–17
  9. W10 vs WyomingL 45–49
  10. W11 at San Diego StateW 21–16
  11. W12 vs Washington StateW 38–35
  12. W14 at Hawai'iL 30–38

2023

4-8
D-I rank
#174
Rating
42.1
Listed games · 12
LWLWLLWLLLWL
327 pts scored421 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at Texas A&ML 10–52
  2. W2 vs Tennessee TechW 56–10
  3. W3 vs New Mexico StateL 17–27
  4. W4 at MassachusettsW 34–31
  5. W5 at WyomingL 26–35
  6. W7 vs San José StateL 24–52
  7. W8 vs Hawai'iW 42–21
  8. W9 at NevadaL 24–34
  9. W10 vs UNLVL 14–56
  10. W11 at Boise StateL 14–42
  11. W12 at Fresno StateW 25–17
  12. W13 vs Utah StateL 41–44

2022

2-10
D-I rank
#181
Rating
39.9
Listed games · 12
WLWLLLLLLLLL
157 pts scored312 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs MaineW 41–0
  2. W2 vs Boise StateL 14–31
  3. W3 vs UTEPW 27–10
  4. W4 at LSUL 0–38
  5. W5 at UNLVL 20–31
  6. W6 vs WyomingL 14–27
  7. W7 at New Mexico StateL 9–21
  8. W8 vs Fresno StateL 9–41
  9. W10 at Utah StateL 10–27
  10. W11 at Air ForceL 3–35
  11. W12 vs San Diego StateL 10–34
  12. W13 at Colorado StateL 0–17