AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#81Away
North Dakota State
1-0 · AVR 46.6
28p
#86Home
New Mexico
0-0 · AVR 44.7
28p
NDSU 49%51% UNM
Spread
UNM -0.4
Total
56
Moneyline
NDSU+104UNM-104
Margin σ
14.6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
New Mexico
LBJaxton Eckprobable
83.133/878
SAustin Brawleyprobable
78.7104/1427
LBMercury Swaim
77.884/878
QBJack Layne
72.433/308
SDrew Speech
63.2403/1427
CBFrankie Edwards III
60.4472/1427

also out — J. Olsen (TE), J. Layne (QB)

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
North Dakota State
opponent
New Mexico
home+11.9
Nevada#120
+4.8away
home+11.2
Wyoming#119
+4.1away
away-0.2
Air Force#98
+2.7home
away-6.6
UNLV#70
-3.7home
away-1.5
Hawai'i#90
-3.6away
home+16.7
UTEP#133
+14.6home
away+8.6
San José State#123
+6.5away

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNM +0.495% interval: -23.5 to 24.380% interval: -17 to 17.8-17+18NDSU wins 49%UNM wins 51%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNM 28–28 NDSUUNM 25–53 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNM 28–49 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNM 32–46 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNM 35–42 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNM 39–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNM 42–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNM 46–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNM 49–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNM 53–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNM 21–49 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNM 25–46 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNM 28–42 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNM 32–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNM 35–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNM 39–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNM 42–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNM 46–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNM 49–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNM 18–46 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNM 21–42 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNM 25–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNM 28–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNM 32–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNM 35–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNM 39–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNM 42–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNM 46–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNM 14–42 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNM 18–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNM 21–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNM 25–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNM 28–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUNM 32–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNM 35–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNM 39–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNM 42–14 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNM 11–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNM 14–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNM 18–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNM 21–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNM 25–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNM 28–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNM 32–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNM 35–14 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNM 39–11 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNM 7–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNM 11–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNM 14–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNM 18–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNM 21–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNM 25–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNM 28–14 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNM 32–11 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNM 35–7 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNM 4–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNM 7–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNM 11–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNM 14–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNM 18–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNM 21–14 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNM 25–11 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNM 28–7 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNM 32–4 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalNDSU +28NDSU +14PKUNM +14UNM +28margin →