CFB
Model
All rankings
Mountain West

North Dakota State

Bison5-12nd in Mountain West
Fargodome · Fargo, ND · 18,700
TeamCarried by the defense · outplaying the roster
OffenseBoom-or-bust passing attack · averageweak point: run game, 93rd
DefenseElite defense

The season

Best win
W 38-32 @ #74 Air Force
Wk 2 · Sep 12 · model had 82%
Worst loss
L 7-13 @ #83 UNLV
Wk 6 · Oct 10 · lost as a 62% favorite

Schedule

model 5/6 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Aug 29
    vsJacksonville State
    W 33–7
    Win chance 76%Model margin +9.6Game details
  2. Week 1 · Sep 5
    vsFordham
    W 38–0
    Win chance >99%Model margin +40.6Game details
  3. Week 2 · Sep 12
    atAir Force
    W 38–32
    Win chance 82%Model margin +12.4Game details
  4. Week 3 · Sep 19
    atSacramento State
    W 31–10
    Win chance 95%Model margin +21.8Game details
  5. Week 5 · Oct 3
    vsWyoming
    W 28–0
    Win chance 91%Model margin +18.0Game details
  6. Week 6 · Oct 10
    atUNLV
    L 7–13
    Win chance 62%Model margin +4.0Game details
  7. Week 7 · Oct 17
    vsNevada
    Win chance 86%Model margin +14.8Game details
  8. Week 8 · Oct 25
    atNew Mexico
    Win chance 31%Model margin -6.7Game details
  9. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsUTEP
    Win chance 93%Model margin +20.0Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 15
    atHawai'i
    Win chance 72%Model margin +7.9Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsNorthern Illinois
    Win chance 95%Model margin +22.6Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 27
    atSan José State
    Win chance 78%Model margin +10.4Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
49
#73 of 138
Defense efficiency
77
#28 of 138
Efficiency
#810.12
EPA / play
#4-0.15
#470.28
Pass
#2-0.15
#930.04
Rush
#10-0.15
#9142%
Success
#4638%
Big plays & havoc
#391.28
Explosive
#30.99
#5914%
Havoc
#4517%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB30th
RB87th
WR14th
TE49th
OL35th
DL32nd
LB42nd
DB3rd

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Nathan HayesSR
995 yds · 7 TD · 2 INT
86.9
32nd QB
RB
DJ ScottJR
298 yds · 4 TD · 4.3 YPC
77.0
132nd RB
WR
Jackson WilliamsJR
22 rec · 358 yds · 1 TD
85.8
23rd WR
WR
Jordan McCantsSR
2 rec · 79 yds · 1 TD
78.1
71st WR
TE
Luke KokatSR
1 rec · 12 yds · 0 TD
72.4
62nd TE
Defense
LB
Donovan WoolenJR
33 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
88.2
20th LB
LB
Jacob WrbanekFR
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
74.8
191st LB
S
Walker BraatenFR
— tkl · — PD · 1 INT
93.4
1st DB
CB
Marion MooreFR
8 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
77.1
121st DB
CB
Kendrick CarterFR
4 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
76.1
157th DB

Injury report

4 out
out
Braylon ToliverRB

Toliver is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

56.110-09
out
Cash DannerTE

Danner is out of commission due to and undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

—10-09
out
Drake SchlosserWR

Schlosser is out of commission due to an undisclosed injury and, he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

—10-09
out
Kye SchlichtingWR

Schlichting is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

—10-09
Ques.
N. NelsonTE

Nelson is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established if he will face the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .

59.6202510-11
Ques.
Brandon WaltonWR

Walton is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .

—10-11
Ques.
Cortez LeGrantRB

LeGrant is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .

70.1202510-11
Ques.
Henry NelsonQB

Nelson is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .

—10-11
Ques.
Jonathan HarveyRB

Harvey is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established if he will face the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .

60.0202510-11

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 7 · Oct 17
    vsNevada
    Playoff chance if win
    5.2%
    Playoff chance if loss
    1.5%
  2. Week 8 · Oct 25
    atNew Mexico
    Playoff chance if win
    8.6%
    Playoff chance if loss
    2.5%
  3. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsUTEP
    Playoff chance if win
    4.9%
    Playoff chance if loss
    1.2%
  4. Week 11 · Nov 15
    atHawai'i
    Playoff chance if win
    5.8%
    Playoff chance if loss
    1.8%
  5. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsNorthern Illinois
    Playoff chance if win
    4.8%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.8%
  6. Week 13 · Nov 27
    atSan José State
    Playoff chance if win
    5.6%
    Playoff chance if loss
    1.5%

Past seasons

Year by year
+1.3 points since 2022
505865738064.7202264.8202365.3202466.02025
2022 64.72023 64.82024 65.32025 66.0

2025

12-1
D-I rank
#50
Rating
66.0

2024

12-2
D-I rank
#51
Rating
65.3

2023

8-3
D-I rank
#46
Rating
64.8

2022

11-2
D-I rank
#49
Rating
64.7