AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sun Sep 13 · 2:00 AM
#81Away
North Dakota State
1-0 · AVR 46.6
30p
#98Home
Air Force
0-0 · AVR 40.0
31p
NDSU 50%50% AF
Spread
AF -0.2
Total
61
Moneyline
NDSU+101AF-101
Margin σ
14.6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Air Force
QBLiam Szarka
83.814/308
RBOwen Allen
68.863/514
LBIsaac Hubert
62.5248/878
WRJonah Dawson
59.7118/777
DBMax Mustell
53.7664/1427
QBMaguire Martin
53.5112/308

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
North Dakota State
opponent
Air Force
home+17.8
Northern Illinois#134
+10.4away
home+11.9
Nevada#120
+4.6away
home+11.2
Wyoming#119
+3.9away
away+8.6
San José State#123
+11.3home
away-6.6
UNLV#70
-3.9home
away-0.4
New Mexico#86
-2.7away
home+16.7
UTEP#133
+14.4home

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKAF +0.295% interval: -23.7 to 24.180% interval: -17.2 to 17.6-17+18NDSU wins 50%AF wins 50%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ AF 32–32 NDSUAF 28–56 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAF 32–53 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAF 35–49 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAF 39–46 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAF 42–42 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAF 46–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAF 49–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAF 53–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAF 56–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAF 25–53 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 28–49 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAF 32–46 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAF 35–42 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAF 39–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAF 42–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAF 46–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAF 49–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAF 53–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 21–49 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAF 25–46 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAF 28–42 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAF 32–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAF 35–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAF 39–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAF 42–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAF 46–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAF 49–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAF 18–46 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAF 21–42 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAF 25–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAF 28–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAF 32–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesAF 35–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAF 39–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAF 42–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAF 46–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAF 14–42 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAF 18–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAF 21–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAF 25–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAF 28–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAF 32–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAF 35–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAF 39–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAF 42–14 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAF 11–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAF 14–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAF 18–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAF 21–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAF 25–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAF 28–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAF 32–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAF 35–14 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAF 39–11 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAF 7–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 11–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAF 14–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAF 18–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAF 21–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAF 25–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAF 28–14 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAF 32–11 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAF 35–7 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes84777063564942totalNDSU +28NDSU +14PKAF +14AF +28margin →