Passing
AF defense
Higher-ranked profile
- NDSU offense
- #47
- AF defense
- #20
EPA comparison
0.28
#47
0.00
#20
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 10:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
NDSU 81.3%18.7% AF
- Projected margin
- NDSU by 12.4
- Projected total
- 48
- 80% outcome range
- NDSU 32 to AF 5
- Win probability
- NDSU 81.3%
FinalNDSU 38 · AF 32model had -12.4, off by 6.4
Current team profiles
North Dakota StateAir ForceWhen North Dakota State has the ball
Rushing
AF defense
Higher-ranked profile
- NDSU offense
- #93
- AF defense
- #47
EPA comparison
0.04
#93
0.00
#47
Rush EPA
Drive success
AF defense
Higher-ranked profile
- NDSU offense
- #91
- AF defense
- #29
Success rates
42%
#91
35%
#29
Success rate
More metrics
0.12
#81
-0.02
#37
EPA / play
1.28
#39
1.29
#101
Explosiveness
14%
#59
14%
#97
Havoc
When Air Force has the ball
Passing
NDSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- NDSU defense
- #2
- AF offense
- #132
EPA comparison
-0.15
#2
-0.07
#132
Pass EPA
Rushing
AF offense
Higher-ranked profile
- NDSU defense
- #10
- AF offense
- #6
EPA comparison
-0.15
#10
0.29
#6
Rush EPA
Drive success
AF offense
Higher-ranked profile
- NDSU defense
- #46
- AF offense
- #25
Success rates
38%
#46
49%
#25
Success rate
More metrics
-0.15
#4
0.22
#39
EPA / play
0.99
#3
1.03
#136
Explosiveness
17%
#45
6%
#1
Havoc
Current key players
North Dakota StateQBNathan Hayes
995 yds · 7 TD · 2 INT
86.932/729
SWalker Braaten
— tkl · — PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 60.0
- Coverage
- 92.9
- Targets allowed
- 1
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 8
- Passer rating allowed
- 60.4
- Missed tackles
- 0
93.41/2969
LBDonovan Woolen
33 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 83.5
- Coverage
- 74.6
- Pressures
- 5
- Pass-rush snaps
- 23
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 0
88.220/1796
WRJackson Williams
22 rec · 358 yds · 1 TD
85.823/2069
WRJordan McCants
2 rec · 79 yds · 1 TD
78.171/2069
CBMarion Moore
8 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 68.6
- Coverage
- 76.2
- Targets allowed
- 6
- Rec allowed
- 2
- Yards allowed
- 8
- Passer rating allowed
- 2.8
- Missed tackles
- 1
77.1121/2969
Availability reports · 9
- Braylon Toliver · RBout · 2026-10-09
Toliver is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Cash Danner · TEout · 2026-10-09
Danner is out of commission due to and undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Drake Schlosser · WRout · 2026-10-09
Schlosser is out of commission due to an undisclosed injury and, he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Kye Schlichting · WRout · 2026-10-09
Schlichting is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
- N. Nelson · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Nelson is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established if he will face the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .
- Brandon Walton · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Walton is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .
- Cortez LeGrant · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
LeGrant is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .
- Henry Nelson · QBQues. · 2026-10-11
Nelson is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .
- Jonathan Harvey · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Harvey is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established if he will face the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .
Air ForceQBLiam Szarka
296 yds · 1 TD · 4 INT
81.862/729
LBBlake Fletcher
44 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 90.3
- Coverage
- 83.1
- Pressures
- 3
- Pass-rush snaps
- 19
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 1
90.014/1796
DBMax Mustell
15 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 67.0
- Coverage
- 89.3
- Targets allowed
- 4
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 14
- Passer rating allowed
- 39.6
- Missed tackles
- 5
87.417/2969
WRMason Hayes
12 rush yds · 0 TD · 1 car
77.579/2069
RBRocco Conti
187 yds · 1 TD · 5.3 YPC
72.3251/1044
LBIsaac Hubert
6 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 71.3
- Coverage
- 64.0
- Pressures
- 8
- Pass-rush snaps
- 83
- Missed tackles
- 4
- Forced fumbles
- 0
71.3320/1796
Availability reports · 2
- Liam Szarka · QBout · 2026-10-05
Szarka is battling with a lower leg injury, and has been shut down for the remainder of the season.
- Griffin Stalfort · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Stalfort is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play Saturday's game against Rebels , October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
NDSUNorth Dakota State
AFAir Force
vs
Offense
86.9
#30 of 138
QB
Quarterback
81.8
#53 of 138
73.8
#87 of 138
RB
Running backs
72.0
#106 of 138
79.1
#14 of 138
WR
Receivers
71.2
#73 of 138
72.4
#49 of 138
TE
Tight ends
68.6
#74 of 138
71.9
#35 of 138
OL
Offensive line
74.7
#18 of 138
Defense
77.3
#32 of 138
DL
Defensive line
69.6
#112 of 138
77.4
#42 of 138
LB
Linebackers
76.9
#45 of 138
79.5
#3 of 138
DB
Secondary
69.0
#111 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
North Dakota State
opponent
Air Force
Hhome+28.0
WYOWyoming#126+1.5Aaway
Hhome+14.8
NEVNevada#109+3.0Aaway
Hhome+20.0
UTEPUTEP#170+11.5Hhome
Aaway-6.7
UNMNew Mexico#33-15.1Aaway
Aaway+10.4
SJSUSan José State#123+7.2Hhome
Aaway-6.0
UNLVUNLV#83-3.3Hhome
Hhome+22.6
NIUNorthern Illinois#145+21.0Aaway