AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 11:00 PM
#120Away
Nevada
0-0 · AVR 32.0
20p
#81Home
North Dakota State
1-0 · AVR 46.6
32p
NEV 21%79% NDSU
Spread
NDSU -11.9
Total
53
Moneyline
NEV+372NDSU-372
Margin σ
14.6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Nevada
DBBryson Snelling
64.8363/1427
DBJaylen Webb
64.7368/1427
DBBishop Turner
61.3449/1427
LBJeremy Naborne-Owens
54.5401/878
QBCarter Jones
54.3106/308
LBPoasa Utu
54.2403/878

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Nevada
opponent
North Dakota State
away+2.2
UTEP#133
+16.7home
away+3.3
Northern Illinois#134
+17.8home
away-16.0
UNLV#70
-6.6away
home-6.0
Hawai'i#90
-1.5away
home-4.6
Air Force#98
-0.2away
home+4.2
San José State#123
+8.6away
home-4.8
New Mexico#86
-0.4away

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 29
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNDSU +11.995% interval: -12 to 35.880% interval: -5.4 to 29.3-5+29NEV wins 21%NDSU wins 79%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NDSU 35–21 NEVNDSU 32–46 NEV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNDSU 35–42 NEV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNDSU 39–39 NEV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNDSU 42–35 NEV neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNDSU 46–32 NEV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNDSU 49–28 NEV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNDSU 53–25 NEV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNDSU 56–21 NEV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNDSU 60–18 NEV neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesNDSU 28–42 NEV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNDSU 32–39 NEV neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNDSU 35–35 NEV neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNDSU 39–32 NEV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNDSU 42–28 NEV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNDSU 46–25 NEV neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNDSU 49–21 NEV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNDSU 53–18 NEV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNDSU 56–14 NEV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNDSU 25–39 NEV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNDSU 28–35 NEV neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNDSU 32–32 NEV neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNDSU 35–28 NEV neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNDSU 39–25 NEV neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNDSU 42–21 NEV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNDSU 46–18 NEV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNDSU 49–14 NEV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNDSU 53–11 NEV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNDSU 21–35 NEV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNDSU 25–32 NEV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNDSU 28–28 NEV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNDSU 32–25 NEV neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNDSU 35–21 NEV neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNDSU 39–18 NEV neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNDSU 42–14 NEV neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNDSU 46–11 NEV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNDSU 49–7 NEV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNDSU 18–32 NEV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNDSU 21–28 NEV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNDSU 25–25 NEV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNDSU 28–21 NEV neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNDSU 32–18 NEV neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNDSU 35–14 NEV neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNDSU 39–11 NEV neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNDSU 42–7 NEV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNDSU 46–4 NEV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNDSU 14–28 NEV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNDSU 18–25 NEV neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNDSU 21–21 NEV neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNDSU 25–18 NEV neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNDSU 28–14 NEV neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNDSU 32–11 NEV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNDSU 35–7 NEV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNDSU 39–4 NEV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNDSU 42–0 NEV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNDSU 11–25 NEV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNDSU 14–21 NEV neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNDSU 18–18 NEV neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNDSU 21–14 NEV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNDSU 25–11 NEV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNDSU 28–7 NEV neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNDSU 32–4 NEV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNDSU 35–0 NEV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalNEV +14PKNDSU +14NDSU +28NDSU +42margin →